NFL Week 18 Betting Picks

Strangely, in what feels like no time at all, we have made it to the alluring Week 18.

Beginning with a doubleheader on Saturday, the last week of the NFL regular season will carry major weight for nearly half the league. With no Thursday night affair this week, that leaves us with 14 contests on Sunday to keep busy.

In terms of Sunday's action, just about all football fans and bettors will be tuned into Sunday Night Football where the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins will battle it out for the AFC East crown. Prior to that, the Atlanta Falcons will visit the New Orleans Saints on Sunday afternoon -- both sides need a win and additional help to qualify for the postseason tournament.

With kickoffs swiftly approaching, let's dive into the odds and lines for the upcoming slate, placing emphasis on Sunday's most valuable of the traditional betting markets.

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

NFL Week 18 Betting Picks

Full Slate

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints

• Time: 1 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
• Spread: NO -3
• Moneyline: ATL +134/NO -158
• Total: 42.5 (-104/-118)

As alluded to in the introduction, you could classify this game between the Falcons (7-9) and Saints (8-8) as a do-or-die matchup, but neither side is guaranteed a playoff berth regardless of the outcome. According to NFL.com, New Orleans has a 50-50 shot at the postseason if victorious at home in Week 18. For Atlanta, even if they pull off the road upset, their chances to advance show just 36%. Before any action starts, numberFire gives the Falcons a 5.5% to make the postseason.

Simply, the Saints will play further into January if they win on Sunday in addition to getting a loss from either the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (who are favored at the Carolina Panthers) or Green Bay Packers (hosting the Chicago Bears).

For Atlanta to make the tourney, it is a little more complicated due to Tampa Bay facing the team with the NFL's worst record. As mentioned, the Falcons first need to win at the Superdome this weekend with Taylor Heinicke taking the snaps. From there, the Falcons would require Tampa to lose in Charlotte. Since those NFC South clashes will be played simultaneously, Atlanta could win Sunday only to find their season is over at the same time (if the Buccaneers are victorious).

In a weird way, if the Panthers somehow manage to get up big on Tampa, Falcons-Saints will turn into the NFC South championship game. On Friday, FanDuel Sportsbook's odds to win the NFC South show as follows: Tampa Bay -235, New Orleans +350, Atlanta +660.

Best Bet: Saints -3.0 (-110)

With New Orleans at home at a rocking venue like Caesars Superdome, I have no issue laying a field goal on the hometown Saints. After a sluggish first half of the season, quarterback Derek Carr and the offense have improved over the last five weeks. In that span, Who Dat has gone 3-2 while averaging 25.0 points per game (PPG).

The Saints have quality talent on defense, but the unit has put forth Jekyll and Hyde performances. Still, at home, New Orleans has held opponents to just 19.1 PPG this season. All-Pro defensive lineman Cam Jordan and others can rally behind that Superdome energy.

At numberFire, the NFL game projections show an estimated score of 24.15-19.48 in favor of the Saints. That presents a scoring differential of more than 4.5 points, which leaves us with a 1.5-point cushion for this contest when compared to the 3.0-point spread. It's Who Dat against the spread (ATS) for me!

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Vikings

• Time: 1 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
• Spread: DET -3 (-120)
• Moneyline: MIN +146/DET -174
• Total: 45.5

As the current pride of Motor City (and the NFC North champions), the Detroit Lions (11-5) are still riding the momentum of clinching their first division title since 1993. Regardless, Detroit is holding on to a shot at moving up from the NFC's 3 seed to the 2 seed. For that to happen, the Lions first need to take care business versus the rival Minnesota Vikings (who are 7-9 and not yet eliminated) at home.

If the Dallas Cowboys win in Landover this weekend, then Detroit will be locked into No. 3 in the NFC. However, Lions head coach Dan Campbell will not have the luxury of seeing what Dallas does before showing his hand; Detroit plays early while the Cowboys compete in the afternoon window this Sunday.

It is likely everyone will be available for the 313. Considering the Vikings can still earn a playoff spot with a win and a loss from the Packers -- several teams are hoping Green Bay loses to the Bears Sunday afternoon -- as well as the Seattle Seahawks also losing, Minnesota will have all oars in the water. Don't expect Skol Nation to go quietly. Vikings signal-caller Nick Mullens will do his best to shock the Ford Field crowd.

Best Bet: Lions -3.0 (-120)

Fully in a career renaissance, Lions quarterback Jared Goff has been balling this year. In his eighth NFL season, the UC Berkeley alum has amassed 4,255 yards passing, which ranks as the third-most in the league right now. At 67%, his current completion clip is 2.5 percentage points stronger than his career average. With talented weapons like Amon-Ra St. Brown in addition to dynamic rookies Jahmyr Gibbs and Sam LaPorta, Motor City is cooking with gas.

Even with the clinging-to-contention Vikings rallying their best attack, I think the Lions will be too strong for Minnesota this weekend. We saw this exact matchup just two weeks ago. In that Christmas Eve meeting, Detroit went into the Twin Cities only to leave with a 30-24 victory and the NFC North title. For Viking supporters, the Grinch traded green for Honolulu blue this holiday season.

With this game taking place only 14 days later, I see the Lions doubling down on the Vikes. Given that Detroit holds an 11-5 ATS record (tied for the best cover rate in the NFL), I'll confidently lay the points in front of a charged home crowd. Yes, football in the state of Michigan is at a pinnacle high right now.

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals

• Time: 1 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
• Spread: CIN -7 (-105)
• Moneyline: CLE +265/CIN -330
• Total: 37.5 (-106/-114)

In this season's final Battle of Ohio, the Cleveland Browns (11-5) will travel south to meet the Cincinnati Bengals (8-8). Still, much of the natural competitive integrity will be removed in this one, as the homeside Bengals have already been eliminated, and the visiting Browns are cemented into the AFC's 5 seed. So, what should we expect this weekend in Cincy?

We have privilege of already knowing that Cleveland stars Joe Flacco and Amari Cooper won't play this Sunday. If there is any team most looking to keep their roster healthy in Week 18, that would be the Browns. Despite losing both Nick Chubb and Deshaun Watson to injury in 2023, Cleveland has remained steady behind a stout defense and stellar relief work from a certain Super Bowl-winning quarterback. The collective effort has head coach Kevin Stefanski as FanDuel Sportsbook's favorite to win Coach of the Year (showing -950 odds prior to the final weekend).

Clearly, Cincinnati's task will be quite a bit easier with many starters out for Cleveland. In addition to Flacco and Cooper, Defensive Player of the Year frontrunner Myles Garrett (-220) will also be sidelined in the regular season finale. Does that mean Bengals quarterback Jake Browning is ready for a big performance, inspired by his Washington Huskies? (Sidenote: we've got you covered when it comes to betting on the CFP National Championship.)

Best Bet: Browns +7.0 (-115)

Being that Joe Burrow (wrist) has been out for the season since Week 11, Cincy has widely displayed mixed results. Backup signal-caller Browning and All-Pro receiver Ja'Marr Chase have established a rapport in some games, but it simply has not been enough. So, even with many players out for Cleveland, I am not exactly thrilled to lay a touchdown with the Bengals.

Sunday's contest on the banks of the Ohio River will be cold and grey, which seems to always fit into Cleveland's style of play. Again, it can be difficult to precisely say what we will see in this contest, but I think the Browns can either win outright or keep it close enough to cover +7.0.

numberFire's game projections yield an estimated scoring result of 26.79-21.20 for the Bengals this weekend, and that difference of 5.59 points falls on the Browns' side of the spread. Frankly, I don't see it being that easy for Cincy to run away in this intrastate rivalry.

As a last bit of comfort, Cleveland has been one of the top ATS teams in the NFL this year, showing a 10-5-1 record in the cover department.

I am taking the Browns with the points.

If you're interested in making a more dynamic bet, the Same Game Parlay 25% Profit Boost is eligible for either NFL Week 18 game played this Saturday (1/6). Your boost can be applied to any SGP/SGP+ wager of three or more legs that also totals +400 odds or longer. For all stipulations, visit FanDuel Sportsbook's website.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.