NFL Week 16 Expert Betting Picks and Predictions

Each week throughout the NFL season, the staff here at FanDuel Research will bring you their favorite bets on the board. They'll share some insight into one of the picks to provide you with reasoning as to why they're on that bet.

All odds come from the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Note: Betting lines and numberFire's player projections may change after this article is published.

NFL Expert Betting Picks for Week 16

Jim Sannes, Digital Media Managing Editor

Side: San Francisco 49ers -5.5 (-110)

The Ravens are a great football team. I just think the 49ers are the best in the league by a wide margin. The 49ers' passing offense is generating nearly twice as many expected points per drop back as every other team in the league. The Ravens are close to league-average there, so it's a huge gap in this specific matchup. The Ravens may get Ronnie Stanley back if he can clear concussion protocol, but other injuries are starting to mount with Mark Andrews and Keaton Mitchell done for the year. I love the Ravens, and it sucks to bet against Lamar Jackson. I just think the 49ers are a supernova, and I am going to keep riding them until they give me a reason not to.

Total: Indianapolis Colts at Atlanta Falcons Under 44.5 (-110)

Austin Swaim, Senior Editor

Side: New York Jets -3 (-118)

How bad are things for the Commanders at present? They're three-point underdogs to a team that was shut out last week. Since the start of 2015, teams shut out the previous week are 32-12 against the spread (ATS) the following week, which we saw hold true with the Raiders in Week 15. Not many of those teams were favored like the Jets, but Washington needed two Rams turnovers in scoring range to lose by only eight last week, and New York's defense is the fourth-best in the NFL, per numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics, against a quarterback addicted to sacks and interceptions. I trust them to cover a field goal in this spot.

Total: Green Bay Packers at Carolina Panthers Under 37.5 (-110)

Austan Kas, Senior Editor

Side: Seattle Seahawks -2.5 (-115)

Total: Washington Commanders at New York Jets Under 37.5

The Jets' combination of good defense (fourth-best by numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics) and a league-worst offense has been great for unders this season, with the under winning out in 9 of their 14 games. Seven of the Jets' last nine games have gone under this 37.5-point line. While the Commanders' league-worst defense -- per numberFire -- aids the over's outlook, Washington's 21st-ranked offense should struggle on the road against an elite D, and with it looking like Trevor Semian will be under center for Gang Green, the under is the side I want to be on.

Tom Vecchio, Editor

Side: Detroit Lions -3 (-120)

Total: Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans Under 40.5 (-120)

With C.J. Stroud likely out for a second straight week, the Texans' offense will once again struggle to put up points. A matchup against one of the league's best defenses in the Browns won't make things any easier for Case Keenum, who could muster only 19 points against the Titans last week. The Browns have the league's best pass defense, which should push the Texans to the ground game, eating up the clock and leading to a lack of scoring.

Kenyatta Storin, Editor

Side: New England Patriots +6.5 (-110)

It never feels good to back the Patriots these days, but the truth is that despite the Broncos' far better record, these teams are just two spots apart in our power rankings. New England sits at 27th while Denver is 25th. The Pats' defense continues to be their lone bright spot, ranking 12th overall and 1st against the run, per numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics. Between that and the slow pace we can expect between these teams, this figures to be an ugly game where one team or the other squeaks by, giving New England value here.

Total: Washington Commanders at New York Jets Under 37.5 (-115)

Zack Bussiere, Writer

Side: Detroit Lions -3 (-120)

Are the Lions back on track? Week 15's 42-17 win over the Broncos seems to indicate that they are, but can they back that up this weekend? I believe they can. The Lions sit seventh in numberFire's power rankings, just two spots above the Vikings in ninth -- but the gap between these two sides is a respectable 1.95 nERD. The Lions' offense ranks fifth overall and should present a difficult challenge for a Vikings defense that ranks 10th. Minnesota's offense ranks 15th but will have a chance to exploit a Lions defense that looked better in Week 15 but still ranks 22nd overall. This projects as a close game, but I believe the gap between these two sides is larger than three points, and I would prefer to side with a more well-rounded Detroit offense.

Total: Dallas Cowboys at Miami Dolphins Over 50.5 (-105)

Gabriel Santiago, Writer

Side: Detroit Lions -3 (-120)

Total: Dallas Cowboys at Miami Dolphins Over 50.5 (-105)

Considering no rain is expected in South Florida until next week, I really like the over for Cowboys-Dolphins. Through 14 games played apiece in 2023, Miami (31.5 PPG) and Dallas (30.8 PPG) are the two most prolific offenses in the NFL. If All-Pro wideout Tyreek Hill returns to action on Sunday, over 50.5 in this contest should be simple. Naturally, I am also counting on a resurgence from the 'Boys and their offensive group after a poor showing in Western New York last week -- looking at you, CeeDee Lamb and Tony Pollard. Still, numberFire's game projections have this contest estimated to finish with a score of 28.67-24.51 in favor of the 'Fins, which yields 53.18 combined points. With cushion and reduced juiced of -105 odds, I'll be rooting for scoring of any kind (over 50.5) at Hard Rock Stadium.

Annie Nader, Writer

Side: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1.5 (-102)

The Bucs went nuclear in Sunday’s 34-20 victory over the Packers and seem poised to take hold of the NFC South crown. They’ll go up against a Jags team that has lost three straight games and has given up an average of 27.3 points over their last four. Jacksonville has the sixth-worst rush D in the league, per numberFire, and we should expect a red-hot Rachaad White to eat them up on the ground. Trevor Lawrence (concussion) has yet to practice as of Thursday, so I’ll take the Bucs at home over either a battered Lawrence or unreliable C.J. Beathard.

Total: Buffalo Bills at San Diego Chargers Over 43.5 (-115)

Nick Vazquez, Writer

Side: Chicago Bears -4.5 (-105)

The Bears have been playing much better following Justin Fields' return and adding Montez Sweat on defense at the trade deadline. Since then, they've beaten two playoff-caliber teams in the Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions while also playing the Lions and Cleveland Browns tough in their other two games. They now get a home game against the Arizona Cardinals, by far their weakest opponent in this stretch. Our power rankings have a decent-sized gap between these two teams, so I like the Bears to win and think this line should be closer to a touchdown.

Total: Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs Over 41.5

Riley Thomas, Writer

Side: Chicago Bears -4.5 (-105)

Total: Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans Under 40.5 (-120)

The under is 4-1 in the last five Texans games, and with C.J. Stroud likely absent for the second consecutive game with a concussion, the under seems like a good bet once again. The Browns have numberFire's best overall defense and fifth-best adjusted run defense. After backup quarterback Case Keenum posted -0.16 expected points added per dropback last week, Houston will likely rely on their run game. With the Browns’ formidable run defense, the Texans could struggle to move the ball. Plus, Houston has the fourth-best adjusted run defense, and Cleveland attempts the third-most carries per game.

Aidan McGrath, Writer

Side: Seattle Seahawks -2.5 (-115)

The Seahawks' offense is well equipped to pick apart the Titans' weak secondary, with each of DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and now Jaxon Smith-Njigba outclassing Tennesee's defensive backs. To make matters worse for the Titans, their star defensive lineman Jeffrey Simmons is tracking to miss a third straight game. Their once-stout run defense has given up a whopping 306 rushing yards in their last two games without him and will be hard-pressed to stop Seattle's duo of Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet. Regardless of whether it's Ryan Tannehill or Will Levis (ankle) under center, the Titans will have a hard time keeping pace with Seattle on Sunday.

Total: New England Patriots at Denver Broncos Under 34.5 (-115)

Scott Edwards, Writer

Side: Buffalo Bills -12.5 (-110)

The Bills are coming off their best performance of the season. Buffalo outclassed the Dallas Cowboys in every way when they defeated them 31-10. With a rushing game finally being powered by James Cook (who finished with 179 rushing yards) and all the work being taken off the shoulders of Josh Allen, there's no reason to think this team can't be the one everyone expected them to be at the beginning of the season moving forward. And while -12.5 is a high number to reach, they're facing a Los Angeles Chargers team that was just embarrassed. A 63-21 loss to the Las Vegas Raiders led to the firing of head coach Brandon Staley, and while they may play some inspired football in Week 16, they're still a team that has Easton Stick at the helm and no Keenan Allen to throw too with him being declared out. The Bills are going to take care of business on Saturday.

Total: Washington Commanders at New York Jets Under 37.5 (-115)

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.