NFL Week 16 Betting Picks

For Sunday of Week 16, we will all have the pleasure of viewing and betting through a full NFL-on-Christmas Eve slate.

The holidays are already "the most wonderful time of the year," but sprinkling in football seems to make everything better -- just ask Thanksgiving.

To keep things organized, Week 16 will offer NFL games played on upcoming Thursday, Saturday, Sunday (Christmas Eve) and Monday (Christmas). From there, we are left with 10 games on this Sunday's docket.

With a few days to spare, let's dive into the odds and lines for the Christmas Eve schedule, placing emphasis on the most valuable of the traditional betting markets.

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

NFL Betting Picks (12/24/23)

Sunday's Full Slate

Indianapolis Colts at Atlanta Falcons

• Time: 1 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
• Spread: ATL -1.5 (-104)
• Moneyline: IND -102/ATL -116
• Total: 44.5 (-105/-115)

Pitting together two teams fighting to stay alive in playoff contention, the Indianapolis Colts (8-6) will head down south to battle the Atlanta Falcons (6-8). These sides seem to be trending in opposite directions -- Indy has won five of their past six contests while Atlanta has dropped five of their most recent seven.

Considering both teams still have a shot at their respective division titles in 2023, the urgency should be near pinnacle levels for this game. Entering Week 16, the Colts are the eighth-best scoring offense in the league (24.5 points per game). Under wily quarterback Gardner Minshew, Indianapolis should match up well with the Falcons' defense, which is a unit that is ranked top 10 in both scoring (8th) and yards allowed (10th).

Notably, Atlanta head coach Arthur Smith just benched signal-caller Desmond Ridder for the second time this season. That means the Falcons will again attempt to increase offensive production by inserting veteran quarterback Taylor Heinicke. Still, all this position shuffling cannot be good for team morale and culture.

Best Bet: Colts +1.5 (-118)

I like Indy in this matchup against the spread (ATS). As mentioned, the Colts are the hotter team at the moment. They are currently tied for the AFC South lead and appear to be playing their best ball of the season right now.

In terms of ATS records, Indianapolis is tied for the top cover rate in the NFL at 9-5. Conversely, the Falcons are one of the very worst ATS teams in 2023, showing a record of 4-10 in that category.

At numberFire, the game projections show a 24.20-23.27 estimated score in favor of ATL. That presents a victory straight up for the Falcons but falls within the set spread of Indy +1.5. Frankly, I would not be surprised if the Colts produced an upset outright, but I am quite comfortable taking the points with them. Indianapolis head coach Shane Steichen seems to be getting the most out of this group.

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings

• Time: 1 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
• Spread: DET -3.0 (-120)
• Moneyline: DET -178/MIN +150
• Total: 46.5 (-115/-105)

For an NFC North affair, the Detroit Lions (10-4) and Minnesota Vikings (7-7) should provide an entertaining clash in the Twin Cities. Detroit can clinch the division this weekend -- something they have not accomplished since 1993 -- with a victory over second-place Minnesota. Additionally, these sides will see each other twice over the final three weeks of the regular season.

Start to finish, the Lions have been a much more complete team compared to the rival Vikes. Last season's division winner, Minnesota has endured a nasty injury bug this season, having been without Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson for a significant part of the campaign. In that time, Motor City has hit the gas pedal, operating with the fifth-highest scoring offense (27.3 PPG) in the league.

At FanDuel Sportsbook, the Lions are listed at -7000 odds to win the NFC North. If/when that comes to fruition, it would make for the third different winner in the division in as many years. Entering Sunday, do the Vikings have any chance at prolonging that?

Best Bet: Lions -3.0 (-120)

Other than a couple head-scratchers, Detroit has been masterfully consistent this season. Behind one of top offensive lines in the sport, quarterback Jared Goff (67.1% completion clip) is slinging the pigskin with confidence, amassing the third-most passing yards (3,727) to this point. Certainly, boasting a skill group of Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs and Sam LaPorta does not hurt one bit.

Back at numberFire, the NFL game projections display a 26.85-23.42 score in favor of head coach Dan Campbell's bunch (at FanDuel Sportsbook, Campbell is currently the second-favorite to win AP Coach of the Year). That difference covers the field goal spread, but I genuinely believe Motor City can win by more.

Keep in mind: Minnesota has had a revolving door at quarterback since the season-ending injury to Cousins -- expect Nick Mullens to take the snaps for Skol on Sunday. All things considered, I like the Lions ATS.

Dallas Cowboys at Miami Dolphins

• Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
• Spread: MIA -1.5 (-108)
• Moneyline: DAL +104/MIA -122
• Total: 50.5 (-105/-115)

Of all teams in the NFL, this clash pits together the two sides that most frequently hear, "yeah, but who have they beat?" Notably, the Dallas Cowboys and Miami Dolphins will engage in a Christmas Eve affair. Both of these Super Bowl hopefuls have combined for just one single win over teams currently showing a winning record in 2023 -- that means something will have to give this Sunday afternoon.

At 10-4 apiece, Dallas and Miami each lead the NFC East and AFC East, respectively, to this point. Still, the 'Boys and the 'Fins equally need a holiday W to help secure those division titles.

The Dolphins will have the benefit of hosting this Christmas Eve bid, and Dallas has suffered all four of their losses this season when on the road. Fortunately for both star quarterbacks on hand (Tua Tagovailoa and Dak Prescott), the weather should be dry this weekend in Miami Gardens.

Best Bet: Over 50.5 (-105)

With no rain in the area until Monday, I really like the over in this contest. Through 15 weeks of NFL action, Miami (31.5 PPG) and Dallas (30.8 PPG) are the top two scoring teams in the league. If All-Pro receiver Tyreek Hill returns to the field this Sunday, over 50.5 between these sides should be easy enough.

Of course, I am counting on a bounce-back effort from Dallas and their offensive group after a poor showing in Buffalo -- looking at you, CeeDee Lamb and Tony Pollard.

numberFire has this contest estimated to finish with a score of 28.67-24.51 for the Dolphins. In totality, that projection yields 53.18 combined points, which provides nearly three points of cushion against the current total of 50.5. With reduced juice of -105 odds on the over, I believe there is authentic value here, especially once you consider the collective offensive weapons.

Looking for the latest NFL odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the NFL betting options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.