NFL Week 15 Betting Picks
Buckle up: the stretch run of the 2023-24 regular season is setting up to be a bumpy ride.
Approaching Week 15, the lone side to officially clinch a playoff spot is the San Francisco 49ers. On the opposite end of that, the Carolina Panthers and New England Patriots are the only teams that have been eliminated from postseason contention.
Aside from our usual bit of Thursday Night Football, we will see NFL action prior to Sunday. This Saturday will offer three games capped by an evening showdown between the Denver Broncos and Detroit Lions.
Of course, Sunday still has plenty to look forward to. In a clash of styles, the surging New York Giants will visit the New Orleans Saints. For an afternoon showing, the Dallas Cowboys and Buffalo Bills are meeting up at Orchard Park -- that will likely be the game of the week.
With a few days to spare, let's dive into the odds and lines for the upcoming bowl slate, placing emphasis on the most valuable of the traditional betting markets.
All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.
NFL Betting Picks (12/17/23)
Sunday's Full Slate
New York Giants at New Orleans Saints
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- TV: FOX
- Spread: NO -6
- Moneyline: NYG +225/ NO -275
- Total: 39.5
As just touched on, the Football Giants (5-8) will be heading down to NOLA this weekend for a romp with Who Dat. Through various means, the G-Men have not lost since November 12th, riding a three-game winning streak. Rookie quarterback Tommy DeVito has continually improved since resuming starting duties, completing 17 of 21 (80.9%) passes in the recent win versus the Green Bay Packers. Still, can DeVito earn his second win on the road come Sunday?
The Saints are one of six teams in the NFC showing a 6-7 record. Like many others, Who Dat has shown mixed results on the field. Still, New Orleans remains in a three-way tie for the divisional lead thanks to a win over the Carolina Panthers last weekend. In that bid, quarterback Derek Carr returned to action, tossing two scores behind 69.2% passing.
New York and New Orleans should make for a testy matchup at the Superdome. With both sides still in playoff contention, this contest will carry significant weight. So, when push comes to shove, who will answer the bell? Approaching the weekend, the Saints show as a six-point home favorite.
Best Bet: Over 39.5 (-110)
Considering the entire body of work, Big Blue is the second-worst scoring team in the NFL. However, they have done a better job on offense since DeVito began taking the snaps, producing 20.5 points per game in that split (up from NYG's season clip of 14.1 PPG). On their three-game heater, I am not necessarily looking to bet against the G-Men getting a touchdown, but a play of over 39.5 at the Superdome has real value.
Boasting many dynamic playmakers (such as Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave and Taysom Hill), the Saints have put up 28 points in back-to-back contests. New Orleans has also scored four rushing touchdowns in that span, while Big Blue is one of the softest teams versus the run. New York allows 4.8 yards per carry (YPC) and 1.46 rushing touchdowns per game -- both clips are currently second worst.
On the Superdome's fast surface, I like this game to go over the low bar of 39.5 total points.
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- TV: CBS
- Spread: MIA -8.5
- Moneyline: NYJ +340/MIA -430
- Total: 37.5 (-105/-115)
As a common migration pattern on the East Coast, New York will travel down to South Florida. By that, I mean we will have an AFC East clash between the New York Jets (5-8) and Miami Dolphins (9-4) at Hard Rock Stadium. The 'Fins took the first head-to-head meeting just three weeks ago, winning 34-13 in East Rutherford. Still, can the Jets return the favor this Sunday?
With a return from Aaron Rodgers seemingly out of the question this season, New York head coach Robert Saleh has turned to former first-round draftee Zach Wilson once again. After being benched for two weeks, Wilson returned to the field in dazzling fashion, throwing for multiple scores along with 301 yards in an upset victory.
Coming off a narrow loss to the Tennessee Titans, Miami is looking to return to the winner's circle. Notably, all-world receiver Tyreek Hill (who shows +2000 odds to win NFL MVP at FanDuel Sportsbook) suffered an ankle injury versus Tennessee despite finishing the game -- he is questionable for Sunday against NYJ.
Best Bet: Over 37.5 (-105)
It feels a little strange to see the Dolphins involved in a game that yields one of the week's lowest totals. Even though Hill has not practiced this week, I would lean toward him playing, especially with the Bills gaining a game in the divisional standings after Week 14. As Tua Tagovailoa's favorite target, Hill is a vital piece of an offense that is scoring 31.6 PGG in 2023. But even if he does not play, I still like this contest to go over the total of 37.5.
Only two games on Sunday have a lower total than this NYJ-MIA. With confident hope that the "Cheetah" will be available, the two sides here definitely have enough firepower to score the adequate amount. Jaylen Waddle is still playing well, yielding 13.0 yards per reception in 2023, while the Dolphins' dynamic run game is booming at 5.3 YPC.
With the Jets' recent showing, I think they can do their part to help the total go over 37.5. At numberFire, the game projections show an estimated score of 27.44-15.83 for Miami, which equates to a combined total of 43.27. If the 'Fins do what they do, the over should be no sweat.
Dallas Cowboys at Buffalo Bills
- Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
- TV: FOX
- Spread: BUF -1.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: DAL +110/BUF -130
- Total: 50.5
For what will likely be the game of the week, we need not wait for primetime. Kicking off in Sunday's afternoon window, the Cowboys (10-3) will head north to Buffalo to see if their dominant run continues through inclement conditions. Upping the ante, the Bills (7-6) have seemingly regained true form, scoring 28.7 PPG over their past three contests. With rain on the radar in Orchard Park this weekend, get prepared for a slugfest.
We are officially at that point in the year where the national media views Dallas as the NFL's top team. To be fair, numberFire's NFL power rankings mostly agree with that sentiment, posting the Cowboys (15.46 nERD) second behind only the 49ers. Much of the success can be contributed to quarterback Dak Prescott's play, who has Dallas scoring more than any other team (32.4 PPG). As such, Prescott is the frontrunner in league MVP betting at FanDuel Sportsbook (+150 odds).
A talented quarterback himself, Buffalo's Josh Allen can reenter that same MVP conversation with a winning performance against the Cowboys this weekend; Allen yields +1400 odds there. Considering that the Bills are 5-2 at home versus 2-4 on the road in 2023, I think they give Dallas a mighty swing in Western New York.
Best Bet: Bills -1.5 (-115)
The Cowboys have been impressive in the campaign, but they still have defeated only one team that currently holds a winning record (which occurred in last weekend's 33-13 thrashing of the Philadelphia Eagles). Additionally, Dallas will be playing away from "Jerry World," where they are far more dominant -- the Cowboys' three losses in 2023 were suffered at Arizona, San Francisco and Philly.
This game will feature two of the top three QBRs, pitting Prescott (74.6) and Allen (70.6) together. Still, in inclement Northeastern conditions, I lean more toward Allen, who plays none of his home nor divisional games indoors.
Versus a narrow number of 1.5, I like the Bills against the spread. Looking back at numberFire, the NFL game projections show an estimated winning score of 29.33-26.11 for Buffalo. That presents a difference greater than three points, which leaves us some cushion for the chalk. Additionally, 1.5 is the smallest attempted home cover for Bills Mafia so far this year.
If you're interested in making a more dynamic bet, the Same Game Parlay 25% Profit Boost is eligible for any NFL Week 15 game played this Saturday or Sunday (12/16-12/17). Your boost can be applied to any SGP/SGP+ wager of three or more legs that also totals +400 odds or longer. For all stipulations, visit FanDuel Sportsbook's website.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.