NFL Week 10 Expert Betting Picks and Predictions

Each week throughout the NFL season, the staff here at FanDuel Research will bring you their favorite bets on the board. They'll share some insight into one of the picks to provide you with reasoning as to why they're on that bet.

All odds come from the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Note: Betting lines and numberFire's player projections may change after this article is published.

NFL Expert Betting Picks for Week 10

Jim Sannes, Digital Media Managing Editor

Side: Indianapolis Colts -1.5 (-115)

Gardner Minshew has averaged 0.01 Passing NEP per drop back this year (numberFire's EPA metric). That's not great, as it's well below league average -- but it's well clear of Mac Jones' mark of -0.12. Now, the Patriots are without their best pass-catcher in Kendrick Bourne, and they've lost key players on defense. My model makes the Colts more than a field-goal favorite, so I'm happy with laying the 1.5, even at -115.

Total: Tennessee Titans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Over 38.5 (-105)

Austin Swaim, Senior Editor

Side: Cleveland Browns +6.5 (-115)

numberFire's top-two schedule-adjusted defenses will square off in Baltimore on Sunday, and this line has rammed through a key number (6.0) in Cleveland's direction. I love it. The Ravens are seen as a buzzsaw, but in a divisional rematch, I'm expecting way better from the Browns' offense. They posted -0.35 Offensive Net Expected Points (NEP) per play in Week 4 but have averaged a more manageable -0.03 in games where Deshaun Watson was fully available. I'm expecting an ugly, low-scoring contest where these points are extremely valuable.

Total: Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals Under 47.0 (-110)

Austan Kas, Senior Editor

Side: Los Angeles Chargers +3.0 (-115)

Total: Tennessee Titans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Under 38.5 (-115)

Will Levis has given some life to the Titans' offense, but this is a tough spot for him. Tampa Bay's elite run D -- which ranks second-best by numberFire's metrics -- should force a lot onto Levis' plate, and the Bucs' defense will be desperate to bounce back after last week's shredding at the hands of CJ Stroud. On the other side, I'm not sure Baker Mayfield is going to fare that well against Mike Vrabel's defense, even if the Titans have struggled some on that side of the ball in 2023.

Tom Vecchio, Editor

Side: Minnesota Vikings +3.0 (-120)

A classic AFC North matchup is all about the under. These two teams are number one and two in fewest total points allowed this season and fewest yards per game allowed. This is because they both like to control the clock with the run game, and both sit in the top three of the league for run play percentage. Bleeding the clock down and great defenses will result in a lack of scoring overall.

Total: Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens Under 38.5 (-105)

Kenyatta Storin, Editor

Side: Houston Texans +6.5 (-104)

Riding a four-game win streak, the Bengals seem to be rounding into form, so it wouldn't be entirely surprising if they take care of business at home against the Texans. That being said, beating this feisty Houston team by a touchdown will be no easy task, particularly with Ja’Marr Chase sounding iffy to play and Tee Higgins dealing with a new hamstring injury. CJ Stroud has led his team to the NFL's 10th-best schedule-adjusted offense, per numberFire, which includes being the 3rd-best adjusted pass offense.

Total: Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots Under 43.5 (-115)

Aidan Cotter, Writer

Side: Dallas Cowboys -17.5 (-105)

The Cowboys are favored by 17.5 points against the Giants, which seems like a lot until you remember Tommy DeVito is starting for the visitors. New York hasn't scored more than 10 points in any of their last four games -- two of which came against bottom-six defenses, according to numberFire's nERD-based rankings. The Cowboys already pounded them by 40 this season, and that was before the Giants' recent free fall. I'm expecting a blowout in Jerry World.

Total: Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens Under 38.5 (-105)

Zack Bussiere, Writer

Side: Indianapolis Colts -1.5 (-115)

The Colts rank 18th overall in numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics. On Sunday, in Germany, they will face a New England Patriots side that ranks 31st, above only the Carolina Panthers. After a solid start to the season, the Patriots' defense has given up an average of 26.2 points per game since Week 5 and now ranks 23rd overall, per numberFire. The Colts are averaging 28.0 points per game over their last four contests -- their offense ranks 17th overall. Indianapolis' defense ranks 15th, but they are facing a Patriots offense that ranks 31st. I think the gap between these two sides is greater than 1.5 points, and the Colts should take this one.

Total: Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals Under 47.0 (-110)

Gabriel Santiago, Writer

Side: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1.5 (-104)

Total: Washington Commanders at Seattle Seahawks Under 45.5 (-105)

Transparently, the under has been one of the strongest plays of the 2023-24 NFL season. Entering Week 10, unders have cashed at a 59.5% rate (81 of 136 contests), which really should not be ignored. Simply, I believe this Commanders-Seahawks bid fits the bill. Both offenses are struggling at the moment. Seattle has scored just 21.4 PPG this season, falling to only 15.6 PPG in their past three games. For Washington, they are slightly worse at 21.2 PPG on the year. Commander quarterback Sam Howell has thrown an interception in all but three games in 2023, and I think a quality Seahawk defensive front -- in front of the 12s -- will give him problems.

Annie Nader, Writer

Side: Indianapolis Colts -1.5 (-115)

Total: New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys Over 39.5 (-105)

The Dallas Cowboys have played five teams that rank in the bottom 12 of numberFire’s power rankings. The results? They’ve hung an average of 33.4 points on these lowly teams’ heads, and I expect similar results this Sunday against an ever-flailing Giants team. We saw how the season opener between these two teams played out (40-0 Cowboys rout), and though a repeat of this 40-point performance is asking for too much, I feel confident that the Giants can manage a few field goal scores to tilt this game towards the over.

Nick Vazquez, Writer

Side: Las Vegas Raiders +1 (-118)

The Raiders are rejuvenated with Josh McDaniels gone and Antonio Pierce installed as the new head coach. They'll face a Jets team that has to travel across the country on a short week after playing terribly on Monday. They shouldn't be road favorites in many scenarios and especially not this one. Vegas will definitely have a matchup to exploit with Maxx Crosby rushing the quarterback against Billy Turner, who struggled mightily to block the Chargers' pass rushers. It wouldn't shock me if the Raiders won this game outright, but you can take the +1.0 for extra insurance.

Total: Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots Under 43.5 (-115)

Riley Thomas, Writer

Side: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1.5 (-104)

The Titans-Buccaneers features one of the lowest point spreads of Week 10. Will Levis is officially the starting QB in Tennessee, and Sunday’s game could fall squarely on the rookie’s shoulders. Tampa Bay’s run defense has been dominant with the second-best mark in numberFire’s adjusted run defense ratings. Levis, who was turnover-prone in college, could make some mistakes with the run game potentially struggling. The Bucs’ Baker Mayfield also comes off an impressive performance against the Texans, who are only one spot below Tennessee in schedule-adjusted pass defense. Following Week 9’s loss, Tampa Bay could be poised for a cover.

Total: New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings Under 41 (-110)

Aidan McGrath, Writer

Side: Jacksonville Jaguars +3 (-110)

The 49ers have been on a three-game losing streak and are sorely missing star left tackle Trent Williams (ankle), who would be limited at best if he does manage to suit up in Week 10. Quarterback Brock Purdy has struggled in the face of pressure in his sophomore campaign, earning PFF's 21st-ranked passing grade when under duress. The Jags boast numberFire's fifth-ranked defense and have averaged 27.2 points per game in their last five contests after their slower start to the season. This should be a close game between two playoff-caliber teams, but Trevor Lawrence's Jags might have a slight edge over Purdy's 49ers.

Total: New York Jets at Las Vegas Raiders Under 36.5 (-105)

Scott Edwards, Writer

Side: Houston Texans +6.5 (-104)

Total: Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens Under 38.5 (-105)

Two of the best defenses in the league are going head-to-head here in the AFC North battle, and as we've seen in many of these two teams' games, defense often wins out. The Ravens lead the NFL in points per game allowed to their opposition at 13.8 while the Browns are right there at 17.4. Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson are going to do everything in their power to create something, but I fully expect this to be an ugly, low-scoring game decided between the two heavyweight defenses rather than the offenses.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.