NFL Week 10 Betting Picks

Week 10 of the NFL officially kicks off the second half of the 2023-24 NFL regular season.

Genuinely, the presented schedule doesn't provide as many high-profile matchups as Week 9 (a weekend that saw overs get cooked for a 3-10-1 record), but there are still a few contests to keep an eye on nonetheless.

In a meeting of two teams coming off their Byes, the San Francisco 49ers and Jacksonville Jaguars are set for a clash in Duval County. Also in the early window, the Baltimore Ravens will host the Cleveland Browns in a contentious AFC North affair.

For the afternoon slate, I've got my eye on an interconference game out west; the Detroit Lions will head to Hollywood to play the Los Angeles Chargers. At that same time, the Washington Commanders will visit the Seattle Seahawks in the Emerald City.

With Thursday Night Football close to kickoff, let's dive into the Week 10 odds with an emphasis on scoping out the most valuable of Sunday's lines in traditional betting markets.

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

NFL Betting Picks (11/12/23)

Sunday's Full Slate

*Denotes NFL International Series

Tennessee Titans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Time: 1 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
• Spread: TB -1.5
• Moneyline: TEN +102/TB -120
• Total: 38.5

Truthfully, the Tennessee Titans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers does not jump off the page like other matchups around the league, but perhaps there are advantageous markets in this bid.

With a set total of 38.5 on Thursday, the oddsmakers don't seem to be expecting a ton of points in this contest. Given that rookie quarterback Will Levis is officially the starter for Tennessee, he has a tall task going against Tampa Bay's defense. The Bucs -- with defensive studs like Vita Vea, Devin White, and Lavonte David -- are allowing fewer than 93 rushing yards per game in 2023.

In a contest where Levis will need to be a playmaker, can he develop any rhythm in enemy territory? After two losses on the road in the past two weeks, you can expect that the host Buccaneers will be thrilled to return home. Also, Tampa Bay's offense played well in defeat last week; quarterback Baker Mayfield completed 21 of 30 pass attempts, a pair of which went for touchdowns.

Best Bet: Buccaneers -1.5 (-105)

I believe this contest is keyed on the Titans struggling with the Buccaneers defense. Tennessee is scoring just 18.5 PPG in 2023. Under Levis, it is tough to gauge which way that figure will trend, especially going against several players this week that won Super Bowl LV a few years back. The Bucs may be 3-5 straight up (SU), but they are 5-3 against the spread (ATS). I'll take Tampa to cover the small point spread.

The game projections at numberFire support the chalk here. Their model shows an estimated score of 23-71-20.23 in favor of the Buccaneers. That results in a victory upwards of a field goal, providing a cover for Tampa Bay ATS supporters.

With only six combined wins this season between these two sides, I'm sure bettors won't exactly be rushing to the window for Titans-Bucs. Still, I think Tampa is in a solid position to win by more than one point. I am looking at future Hall-of-Fame wide receiver Mike Evans to show out in this matchup against numberFire's eighth-worst pass defense.

Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Chargers

• Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
• Spread: DET -3
• Moneyline: DET -148/LAC +126
• Total: 48.5

As alluded to in the introduction, I think the Lions and Chargers could be the game of the week -- especially considering this week's primetime catalog.

Atop the NFC North, Detroit will bring their second ranked offense -- in terms of yards per game at 390.6 -- out to the City of Angels. For Lions quarterback Jared Goff, it will be somewhat of a homecoming; he played one season at SoFi Stadium as a member of the Los Angeles Rams.

Still, Los Angeles' AFC franchise has been the more competitive team in 2023. The Bolts may be only 4-4, but three of their four losses have come by a single score. Also, three of those Ls are to teams who were in the playoffs last year. Undoubtedly, with the weapons the Chargers have, the boys in powder blue and yellow have potential.

Best Bet: Lions ML (-148)

I want to lay the field goal, but given the Bolts' tendency for close games, I feel best about the Lions straight up.

Again, this bid should be close as the offenses mostly cancel each other out. Goff, Justin Herbert, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Keenan Allen, Jahmyr Gibbs, Austin Ekeler, Sam LaPorta, and Gerald Everett make for weapons up and down both sides. However, on defense and up front on the offensive line, I give Detroit the edge.

Despite playing in L.A., the Chargers have not really had a home-field advantage since they left San Diego's Mission Valley. The Bolts are 16-13 lifetime at SoFi but just 4-5 in that split versus NFC opponents.

In 2023, the Lions are 6-2 both SU and ATS. Frankly, I like how their skill players matchup up with Los Angeles' defense -- a unit that is allowing 375.75 yards per game (30th in the NFL). The Chargers must know they are seeing a much more efficient offense than the one they last played against the New York Jets.

Washington Commanders at Seattle Seahawks

• Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
• Spread: SEA -6.5 (-115)
• Moneyline: WSH +245/SEA -300
• Total: 44.5 (-115/-105)

As the Seahawks wrestle with NFC West contention, they will receive a favorable matchup at home. Making the cross-country trip, the Commanders will head to Seattle for a conference test against a team that was in the postseason a year ago.

Both sides here have shown mixed results in 2023, but the Seahawks have been much more consistent. However, Washington did well to get back in the win column last weekend, narrowly defeating the New England Patriots in Foxborough.

Across the field, Seattle is returning home after a suffocating loss in Baltimore. The Seahawks failed to find the end zone in the 37-3 trouncing. Quarterback Geno Smith was just 13 of 28 passing that day, including one interception.

To reiterate, I think the offenses on hand have been lukewarm as both show up in the bottom half of the league in scoring. Star receiver D.K. Metcalf has appeared frustrated in certain contests while Commanders quarterback Sam Howell leads the NFC in picks (9).

Best Bet: Under 45.5 (-105)

The under has been a highly profitable play for the 2023-24 NFL regular season. Prior to Week 10, unders have hit at a 59.5% clip (81 of 136 contests), which should grab any bettors attention. In that regard, I believe the shoe fits for Commanders-Seahawks.

Each offense here has seen its struggles -- especially recently. Seattle has scored just 21.4 PPG this year, falling to only 15.6 PPG in their past three contests. For Washington, they are even lower at 21.2 PPG in the current campaign. Howell has thrown an interception in all but three games in 2023, and I think a stout Seahawks defensive front at home will give the second-year QB plenty of problems.

Don't forget to use your Sunday Funday Same Game Parlay 30% Profit Boost! Eligible for any Week 10 NFL game on Sunday, your boost can be applied to an SGP of three or more legs. For all stipulations, visit FanDuel Sportsbook's website.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.