NFL Survivor Picks for Week 5: Should We Accept the Seahawks as Chalk?

NFL survivor pools are an interesting way to have some fun during the season, and this weekly article is here to help you stay alive deep into the season.

Based on numberFire's NFL survivor matrix, here are some of the best NFL survivor picks for Week 5.

All NFL odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

NFL Survivor Picks for Week 5

Best Picks

Seattle Seahawks

Rarely does one injury lead me from a bonafide play in survivor pools to minimal consideration, but perhaps that's just how special Malik Nabers has been.

Nabers is in concussion protocol, and without him, the New York Giants could look a bit more like last year's version trying to move the ball in Emerald City. It's not like New York, numberFire's 24th-ranked overall offense as is, is lighting the world on fire with Nabers.

I'm expecting a bounce-back spot for the Seattle Seahawks off of Monday night's wild loss. Seattle still has a top-10 offense and defense in nF's rankings, and keeping pace with the Detroit Lions was certainly a "stock-up" situation in defeat.

The problem with Seattle? numberFire's survivor matrix predicts they'll be the most commonly picked team (35.1% rate) in most pools. I'm willing to overlook that without Nabers in a season where simply just getting the answer right has been difficult, but if the stud rookie plays, I'll likely pivot.

San Francisco 49ers

I've recommended the San Francisco 49ers at the very top in consecutive weeks, so they may not be available to you as this weekend's largest moneyline favorite (-370), per the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Still, I get the appeal with S.F. if they are for a third straight week. As the offense's weaponry gets back to full strength, the Niners have vaulted to numberFire's 2nd-best overall team in the rankings and are now set to host the 24th-ranked Arizona Cardinals.

Arizona mustered a fairly average 0.05 Offensive Net Expected Points (NEP) per play against the Washington Commanders without Trey McBride, and the odds that nF's 30th-ranked defense can keep the Niners in check aren't particularly high.

San Francisco is numberFire's favorite survivor pick this week with an adjusted win rate of 67.4%, but I can't help but remember Arizona's effort against the Buffalo Bills and feel inclined to bet their 7.5-point spread off an embarrassing loss.

Chicago Bears

The Carolina Panthers fade is 3-1 in survivor pools, and this is another spot where it could certainly cash again.

Carolina's offense is certainly friskier with Andy Dalton, holding their highest numberFire ranking on that side of the ball (25th) in three years. Woof. The problem is their defense still couldn't stop a nosebleed, sitting as nF's fifth-worst unit overall. At home, this feels like another must-win spot early for the Chicago Bears.

Each week, Caleb Williams seems to be improving, and last week's comfortable win over the Los Angeles Rams included 131 rushing yards that helped the rookie a great deal. In terms of NEP per play allowed, the Panthers are a bottom-eight squad against both the rush and the pass.

Any pulse the Chicago offense can give their fifth-ranked defense should lead to a "W", and the Bears' low projected pick rate (5.2%) is pretty appealing. Patience could be a virtue, though. They'll host the New England Patriots in Week 10.

Digging Deeper

Do you want -- or need -- to use other squads than the teams listed above? Here are some other options.

Pittsburgh Steelers

I love trying to find contrarian teams that I'll likely never use again. It's dicey but can save a free square or two down the road. The Pittsburgh Steelers might be that team this week.

In addition to some general issues that have the Dallas Cowboys sitting at 2-2, the Dallas defense could be a trainwreck on Sunday night. Both Micah Parsons and Demarcus Lawrence are expected to be out for a defense that is already numberFire's ninth-worst overall unit.

Meanwhile, we knew Pittsburgh would be pretty dangerous if their offense was even average, and they're nearing that mark in nF's rankings (20th) after one of Justin Fields' better games as a pro.

The Steelers host the Giants in Week 8, but if Malik Nabers is good to go for that contest, I'm not sure I'd even deploy them in that spot. This largely isn't an offense to trust in this realm -- or to ever win by more than a score. However, Dallas' cluster injuries open the door for a dart at their extremely low pick rate (0.5%).

Denver Broncos

numberFire's survivor matrix is having a better 2024 than I am in survivor pools, so I thought I'd touch on one more pick it likes that I don't see at all.

The Denver Broncos are consecutive winners and enjoying more Sundays as they imagined when hiring Sean Payton, and it's been on the back of numberFire's second-ranked defense to this point. They had the offenses of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New York Jets -- that have scored plenty on others -- on the ropes.

Now, they'll host the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 5 -- a poor offense. Vegas posted -0.03 Offensive NEP per play last week without Davante Adams, who doesn't sound projected to return soon.

Bo Nix threw for 60 yards in Week 4, and the Raiders have won nine straight against the Broncos. I think there are better places to turn this week, but numberFire's adjusted win rate for Denver on Sunday (61.7%) is third-highest on the board.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your