NFL Survivor Picks for Week 4: Which Preseason Favorites Will Rebound?

NFL survivor pools are an interesting way to have some fun during the season, and this weekly article is here to help you stay alive deep into the season.

Based on numberFire's NFL survivor matrix, here are some of the best NFL survivor picks for Week 4.

All NFL odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

NFL Survivor Picks for Week 4

Best Picks

San Francisco 49ers

If you've emerged from the first three weeks alive in a historically difficult year for survivor pools, you're built different. It hasn't been due to the primary pick of this column, which is 0-3 to this stage. Not too many survivor columns even have a winning record on that front.

I'll run back the San Francisco 49ers as this week's top pick, and it's not from earning it after consecutive embarrassing losses. It's because S.F. hosts the New England Patriots, who are numberFire's second-worst team in the NFL. They're realistically only above the Carolina Panthers because of Bryce Young's first two games, as well.

Head coach Jerod Mayo says he's turning back to Jacoby Brissett's -0.20 expected points added per drop back (EPA/db) at quarterback, and that's why nF is turning back to the 49ers in survivor pools this week. Even adjusting for a projected 32.7% pick rate, the Niners are its top pick for Week 4 with an adjusted win probability of 75.9%.

Just keep an eye on Brock Purdy's back injury here, too.

Detroit Lions

The Detroit Lions bounced me from my main survivor pool in Week 2, but there is reason to believe they end the Seattle Seahawks' winning streak at three.

Based on just this season, numberFire actually has Seattle (7th) higher in their rankings that Detroit (8th) off of the two's resumes, which aren't schedule-adjusted. Seattle, though, is truly a wild card after games against the Patriots, Denver Broncos, and Skylar Thompson-led Miami Dolphins to begin the year.

The model still loves Detroit's excellent body of work at home. They're 14-7 at Ford Field since the start of 2022 with an average margin of victory of 7.2 points. I trusted that against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but four turnovers (including downs) crushed them in a game where they outgained Tampa by 247 yards. Who's salty? Definitely not me.

Motown has numberFire's second-best adjusted win probability (73.2%) when accounting for its low expected pick rate, and if 2024 has taught you anything in survivor pools, it's that being on a chalky square like San Fran has proven to be a quick way to perish.

Houston Texans

This feels like a bounce-back spot for the Houston Texans.

As a backer of a potential Jacksonville Jaguars rebound yesterday, Jacksonville might be in the most disarray relative to talent across the entire league. They're 0-3 and a bottom-eight team on offense and defense, according to numberFire. Head coach Doug Pederson even hinted at a quarterback change on the table despite Trevor Lawrence being due cash over a half-decade from now.

Moreover, Houston being back in their venue is a big deal to them in the C.J. Stroud era, holding an 8-3 record at NRG Stadium compared to 5-6 away from home. The Minnesota Vikings buzzsaw was a forgivable road setback in Week 3.

nF is a bit lower on Houston that I am right now. It's ranking them just 15th overall in the NFL. That's some of the reason its adjusted win rate for the Texans as a semi-popular pick (7.4% pick rate) is 58.6%. That's only the model's 10th-best overall choice of the week.

It could also pay to be patient with the Texans, though. You'll want to use them at home, but they've still got dates in H-Town with the Tennessee Titans and Miami Dolphins later this season.

Digging Deeper

Do you want -- or need -- to use other squads than the teams listed above? Here are some other options.

Cincinnati Bengals

I want to be clear that I, full of bias, can't be here coming off a game where the Cincinnati Bengals couldn't force a rookie quarterback to punt once in his primetime debut. However, their argument still resides in the top three.

Though we love to overreact this time of year, it's quite possible the Panthers took full advantage of a Las Vegas Raiders team that overlooked them given a -60 point differential in two weeks to open the season. However, you've heard by now that Andy Dalton balled out to the tune of 0.32 EPA/db, and Carolina fans are pointing fingers at approximately 5'9" off the ground.

Cincy is now 0-3, which doesn't bode well for a survivor pick. They're nF's 29th-ranked defense -- but also its 9th-best offense entering a matchup with a Panthers team missing Derrick Brown. At the very least, Bryce Young's benching shouldn't change that side's outlook dramatically.

Carolina's outburst last week has Cincy projected for just a 5.6% pick rate, which likely would have been north of 30% had the Panthers lost again in Week 3 and the Bengals had gotten a single stop. There could be value zagging onto the Stripes if they haven't eliminated you yet.

Dallas Cowboys

The Dallas Cowboys are numberFire's second-most commonly projected pick (16.4% rate) in pools this week. They're facing the New York Giants on a short week, but I'm not sure the G-Men aren't riding higher as a club at this stage.

New York's opening losses to the Vikings and Washington Commanders have aged like wine, and they moved the ball well on a stout Cleveland Browns defense, sacking Deshaun Watson eight times in the process.

N.Y. is numberFire's 26th-ranked team, and Dallas (20th) isn't far ahead while battling the rankings 5th-worst overall defense. A bet on Big D is a bet on this spot considering Dallas has won 13 of the last 14 head-to-head matchups -- all in the Dak Prescott era.

I've been saving Dallas on the basis of weaker NFC East matchups to come, but this week, I think I'm avoiding the 'Boys on the basis of waiting for this talented team to figure it out.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your