NFL Season-Long Futures Betting: Calvin Ridley Can Fly Past His Touchdown Prop

The NFL season will be here before you know it and it's time to dive into some season-long player props. While these futures may take several months to be settled, there's plenty of opportunity in the various markets to find some value.

We'll start with the season-long receiving touchdown prop for Calvin Ridley of the Jacksonville Jaguars, which sits at 5.5 (-118), and the over is the place to look this year.

There's plenty to break down for this bet and plenty to be excited about when it comes to the Jaguars' offense this season. Let's jump in.

Same Face, New Place

This will be Ridley's first season with the Jaguars after missing all of the 2022 NFL season due to a gambling suspension. The Jaguars traded for him last year, and he has been reinstated by the NFL. The speedster is set to take the field for the first time since 2021.

Ridley joins a team on the rise in several different areas, and with his skillset, he should be in a prime position to cruise past 5.5 receiving touchdowns this season.

The Jaguars not only made the playoffs for the first time since 2017, but they won the AFC South in the process. The year started off slowly for them with a 3-7 record, but Jacksonville won six of their last seven games to vault themselves to the top of the AFC South.

That success was due to several factors but the main answer people keep coming back to is the ascending play of the quarterback, Trevor Lawrence.

Quarterback skill and overall success directly correlates with a wide receiver's success. If we are expecting big things from a wide receiver, his quarterback is likely also in for a strong season.

Lawrence finished last season within the top 13 of the league in passing yards, touchdowns, completion percentage, and passer rating. If Lawrence is set for another big year, his receivers are going to be the beneficiaries of that.

With the Jaguars being -160 favorites to win the AFC South title and -200 to make the playoffs, it's safe to say the market doesn't view last season as a fluke. The Jaguars are here to stay, led by a quarterback with star-like potential.

Ridley joins a receiving room that consists of Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Engram. They saw plenty of success last season, and with Ridley in the mix and Lawrence continuing to take steps forward, they could be one of the top units in the league.

Last season, the Jaguars finished with a 59.40% pass-play percentage, which was the 12th highest in the league. However, in their final three games of the season, the rate jumped to 69.49%, putting them as the second-highest team in the league.

With an offense that is comfortable passing the ball at a high rate, the sky is the limit for Lawrence and his strong cast of receivers.

Of course, this isn't to say there won't be some growing pains along the way. This isn't just Ridley joining a new team and finding his spot; he is returning to the field for the first time since October 24th, 2021.

2023 Outlook

However, there's plenty to be hopeful about since Ridley has proven to be a consistent and productive wide receiver when he is on the field. When Ridley played full seasons from 2018 to 2020, he ended with at least seven touchdowns in each season.

He also maintained a touchdown rate of 6.2% or higher in each of those seasons. Even with some natural regression, Ridley could end with a lower touchdown rate and still eclipse his 5.5 receiving touchdown prop.

numberFire's projections have Ridley going for 135.70 targets and 7.44 receiving touchdowns. That would be a 5.4% touchdown rate -- the lowest rate of his career -- but he'd still hit the over on his season-long prop.

Everything seems to be pointing up for the Jaguars between their odds to win the division, their quarterback emerging, and adding options to their offense. Ridley will play a key part in their passing game, which should allow him plenty of opportunities to rack up touchdowns this season.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.