NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Betting: The Case for Longshots

Over the past few weeks on the site, we’ve covered some of the contenders with the shortest 2023 NFL AP Offensive Rookie of the Year award odds by the end of the season. Whether by draft capital, landing spot, innate talent, or pre-draft buzz, each of the players we’ve covered has had legitimate reasons for having their names near the top of the odds chart on FanDuel Sportsbook.

While we’ve done deeper dives on each of the top contenders, today we’re going to take a look at some longshots with a potential of taking home the trophy by the season’s end. These players all have odds outside of the top 10 on the market and will face uphill battles as they put together rookie season resumes.

In other words, they’re long shots for a reason.

We won’t get into every single rookie you can place a bet on, but here are some of the names that stand out from the pack further down the board.

Rashee Rice, WR, Kansas City Chiefs (+4000)

Rice was a big-time producer for the SMU Mustangs in his final collegiate season, finishing third in the nation in total receiving yards with 1,355. He faces little competition from the other wide receivers on his own depth chart in Kansas City but is unlikely to lead the team in receiving marks as long as Travis Kelce stays healthy.

The Kansas City Chiefs clearly valued Rice’s versatility as a receiver and could look for him to replace JuJu Smith-Schuster in 2023. The track record for second-round pass-catchers in the OROY history books isn’t strong, but not many rookie wideouts have had the privilege of playing alongside Patrick Mahomes.

Kendre Miller, RB, New Orleans Saints (+4000)

Miller was a hyper-efficient rusher for TCU during his first two seasons in college and managed to maintain much of his explosive playmaking ability when he was asked to carry the load in his final season. After averaging over seven yards per carry in his first two seasons as a committee back, Miller still averaged 6.2 yards per carry in his final season, posting 224 rushes for 1,399 yards and 17 scores.

The New Orleans Saints were clearly excited to draft Miller in the third round of the 2023 draft, and he should see the field relatively quickly. The Saints have often worked with a multi-back system, meaning he could mix in with new teammates Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams for opportunities. If Kamara gets hurt – or misses time due to his legal issues – Miller could end up becoming the feature back on a run-heavy Saints offense. His situation bears some aesthetic resemblance to the circumstances that led to Kamara’s own OROY title back in 2017.

Hendon Hooker, QB, Detroit Lions: +6000

Hooker had first-round buzz at points during the pre-draft process and was in the midst of an electric year as the quarterback for the Tennessee Volunteers before a knee injury ended his season. He’s not likely to play much during the offseason but recently told The Athletic’s Jeff Howe that he expects to be cleared to play by September 1st.

The Detroit Lions seem committed to starting incumbent quarterback Jared Goff to open the 2023 season, but it’s not hard to envision the team making the switch to their rookie if they struggle to find wins at the beginning. Detroit has a plus offensive line and an arsenal of offensive weapons for their signal callers, which could set Hooker up well for a run at the OROY title if he can take the starting job.

Hooker was wildly efficient in his two years as Tennessee’s starter, throwing 58 touchdowns to just 5 interceptions while averaging 9.6 yards per attempt. His 9.5 yards per attempt this past season tied new Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud for the highest mark in all of college football in 2022.

Michael Mayer, TE, Las Vegas Raiders: +8000

We covered just how hard it is for tight ends to win the OROY award in the piece featuring Dalton Kincaid. It hasn’t been done since Mike Ditka in 1961.

However, Mayer, who was nicknamed “Baby Gronk” by his collegiate teammates, has a non-zero chance of bucking that trend. Landing with the Raiders near the top of the second round of the draft, Mayer will play under offensive-minded head coach Josh McDaniels, who called plays for the New England Patriots during Rob Gronkowski’s prime.

Mayer found the field immediately for Notre Dame and led the team in receptions (42) in his freshman season. He became the focal point of their passing offense in his second season and finished his final year with 67 catches for 809 yards and 9 scores – more than twice as many receptions and yards, and more than three times as many touchdowns as Notre Dame’s next-best pass-catchers.

We have seen tight ends start their careers slowly in recent years, but Mayer could be different. Apart from his immediate production in college, he’ll also join a depth chart that traded away Darren Waller and let Foster Moreau walk in free agency. His primary competition for opportunities in his first season will be journeyman Austin Hooper, who signed a one-year deal with the team this offseason.

Zach Evans, RB, Los Angeles Rams: +8000

Evans was a highly touted prospect entering the college ranks but never quite lived up to his impressive recruit rankings. Injuries and playing alongside 2023 third-round pick Kendre Miller limited his opportunities in his first two seasons at TCU, and he eventually fell behind exciting freshman back Quinshon Judkins after he transferred to Ole Miss for the 2022 season.

The former top recruit fell all the way to the sixth round in the 2023 NFL Draft but could see the field surprisingly early with the Los Angeles Rams. The team is currently slated to enter the season with just Cam Akers and Kyren Williams in their running back room. Akers has missed significant time with an Achilles injury and was benched by the team in 2022, and Williams is more of a receiving back than a legitimate threat to regular opportunities. Evans could establish himself as the team’s top back with a strong performance during their offseason practices.

While he was never able to earn a massive workload in college, Evans was still impressive from an efficiency standpoint. He averaged over seven yards per carry in his time with TCU and still posted 6.5 yards per carry after transferring to the SEC. If he can leverage that efficiency into a significant role with the Rams, he could put together an OROY-worthy campaign in 2023.

Stetson Bennett, QB, Los Angeles Rams: +15000

One of the longest shots available on the market at the moment is quarterback Stetson Bennett, who landed with the Rams in the fourth round of the 2023 NFL Draft.

The two-time NCAA champion signal caller was often regarded as a product of his situation at Georgia, but he still managed to produce impressive passing numbers in his final two seasons as the starter. He averaged 9.55 yards per attempt in those two seasons with 56 touchdown passes and 14 interceptions.

Bennett landed on a shaky quarterback depth chart that could lead to opportunities surprisingly early on. The incumbent starter,Matthew Stafford, missed significant parts of the 2022 season with multiple injuries, and rumors about his possible retirement have been percolating in the background. He will only have to beat out journeyman Brett Rypien to earn a spot as the team’s backup this season.

Again, Bennett is a massive longshot at +15000, but he does have an actual path to producing an OROY campaign. Quarterbacks have won the award more than any other position since 2010, and we’ve seen AP voters have a willingness to overlook draft capital in previous years when Dak Prescott won it for his 2016 season.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.