NFL Offensive Player of the Year Betting: Longshots to Consider

There are plenty of players with strong cases to win the Offensive Player of the Year (OPOY) award for their performances in the 2023 season. For the most part, those players have the strongest NFL OPOY betting odds to take down the award on FanDuel Sportsbook; Ja'Marr Chase (+1200) leads the pack while Justin Jefferson (+1400) and Christian McCaffrey (+1600) trail not far behind him.

The OPOY award is one that awards outstanding individual feats and accomplishments, and the names near the top of the betting odds lists are already household names for those players’ strong track records of excellence. But the NFL is a pretty big league, overflowing with exciting players and potential breakout performers. You might find yourself drawn to some of the other top dogs like Nick Chubb (+2000) to win the award this season, but don’t sleep on some of these longshots.

Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets (+4000)

Breece Hall entered the 2022 season as a second-round pick out of Iowa State and appeared to be on pace to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year award before an ACL injury prematurely ended his season. He flashed an impressive ability to break off long touchdowns on a less-than-exciting New York Jets offense, finishing the year with an insane 5.79 yards per carry average while posting up 11.47 yards per reception.

The Jets are on the up-and-up now with +250 odds to take down the AFC East. The arrival of Aaron Rodgers could transform their offense while the team’s elite defense could keep them in positive game scripts throughout the year.

Hall played only three games as the team’s true starter before his injury, but his per-game pace in that time put him on track for more than 2,000 yards from scrimmage over a 17-game season. Obviously, we can't get too carried away with a sample that small, but Hall sure looked like a stud running back in the brief time we saw him carry the load.

He’s expected to pick up where he left off a season ago as the Jets’ lead back and could be one of the biggest breakout running backs in 2023.

Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants (+4000)

Another running back from New York, Saquon Barkley seems like a strong value at +4000 odds to win the OPOY award this season.

The superstar rusher was held back by injuries in 2020 and 2021, but his ability to play for the full 2022 season helped take the underdog New York Giants all the way to the playoffs last year. Barkley’s odds could climb in the near future if he and the Giants are able to settle their contract negotiations amicably; the doubt around his willingness to play under the franchise tag could affect his availability for Week 1.

Assuming he does suit up for the Giants in 2023, there’s simply no denying Barkley’s status as one of the most talented backs in the NFL. Even on a struggling Giants offense, he averaged over 100 yards from scrimmage per game last year. He’s arguably one of the most likely players across the league to replicate Todd Gurley’s OPOY-winning performance from the 2017 season, which saw the Rams back post 1,305 rushing yards, 788 receiving yards, and 19 touchdowns from scrimmage.

Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars (+4000)

Trevor Lawrence is essentially responsible for legitimizing the Jacksonville Jaguars’ franchise after their laughable 2021 campaign under Urban Meyer.

His breakout performance in 2022 led the Jaguars to just their fourth playoff appearance since the turn of the millennium, and his presence as their quarterback has put them on an upwards trajectory for the first time in a long time. The second-year signal caller put up over 4,000 passing yards while throwing 25 touchdowns to just 8 interceptions in the regular season while showing remarkable poise in the pocket. His 4.4% sack rate ranked fourth-best in the league last year.

His remarkable breakout campaign came with a solid pass-catching group of Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Engram, but Lawrence could take another leap forward in 2023 with the addition of Calvin Ridley to the Jaguars’ offense. Ridley missed the 2022 season while serving a suspension for violating the NFL’s gambling policy but was previously regarded as one of the premier wideouts in the entire league.

Lawrence is a low-key MVP candidate as well with +1600 odds to win that award, but his +4000 odds to win the OPOY award provide a little more upside for optimistic bettors.

Deebo Samuel, WR, San Francisco 49ers (+4000)

I almost paused before writing in Deebo Samuel’s position in this headline.

He is technically a wide receiver, but he’s so much more than that, too. When the San Francisco 49ers found themselves in desperate need of help at running back in 2021, Samuel more than stepped in; he thrived. The dynamic wideout averaged a ridiculous 6.2 yards per carry that season while scoring 8 touchdowns on just 59 carries. He did all that on top of being one of the most productive receivers in the league that season, finishing his campaign with 1,405 receiving yards and 6 more touchdowns through the air.

Injuries limited Samuel in 2022, but there’s no denying that he’s one of the most exciting players in the league with the ball in his hands. He and assumed 2023 starter Brock Purdy showed a strong connection in the team’s first two playoff games last year, during which Samuel caught 10 passes for 178 yards and a touchdown while carrying the ball 7 times for 43 more yards.

He could be in line for another massive season in 2023 if both he and Purdy are able to stay healthy.

Austin Ekeler, RB, Los Angeles Chargers (+6000)

No one has scored as many touchdowns as Austin Ekeler (38) over the past two seasons, which makes the +6000 odds he has to win the OPOY award this season stick out almost as much as the lack of any real OPOY consideration he’s received in that time.

What’s a guy gotta do to get some respect? James Conner ranks second in touchdowns in that span of time, and his 26 scores are still 12 fewer than Ekeler has put up.

The Los Angeles Chargers brought in a new offensive play-caller in Kellen Moore for the upcoming season, which could put the team in more scoring positions than ever before. If a player is averaging close to 20 touchdowns per season, it might be worth your while to consider placing a bet on him to win the OPOY award at +6000 odds.

Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, New England Patriots (+7000)

The New England Patriots weren’t very good last season, but Rhamondre Stevenson sure was.

He entered his second season expected to split work with former teammate Damien Harris but ran away with the starting job just a few weeks into the year. Stevenson was the only part of the Patriots’ broken offense that seemed to work in 2022. He averaged five yards per carry despite their injured offensive line and was remarkably productive in the passing game, catching 69 passes for 421 yards and a touchdown.

The Pats seem content to lean on him heavily again this season. With his enviable abilities in the passing game, the third-year back has a legitimate shot to lead the NFL in touches this season, which could help him hit the tops of the leaderboards. If he can continue to maintain his efficient play while garnering strong touch totals – and if the Patriots can actually score a couple of touchdowns this year – Stevenson could start looking like the OPOY candidate his usage implies he can be.

Calvin Ridley, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars (+12000)

Calvin Ridley has been through a lot over the past few years, but a fresh start with the Jaguars could be just what the doctor ordered.

The former first-round pick was a touchdown machine in his first two seasons in the league despite playing across from possible future Hall-of-Famer Julio Jones, and his 2020 campaign saw him finish fifth in the entire league with 1,374 receiving yards. He put up his past production while playing with a declining Matt Ryan, but he’ll now have an opportunity to play with the aforementioned ascending Trevor Lawrence.

Rachaad White, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+15000)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Rachaad White is certainly a longshot with +15000 odds to win the OPOY award this year, and on a surface level it’s pretty clear why – the Bucs are going to be really bad this year.

Tom Brady retired and could be replaced with one of Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask, the team’s offensive line fell apart last season, and, frankly, White just wasn’t great in his rookie season.

All that said, 2023 is a new season. White should have the entire backfield to himself after the team parted ways with veteran back Leonard Fournette, and he could be in line for one of the heaviest workloads in the entire NFL if head coach Todd Bowles has his way.

At the college level, White was the Arizona Sun Devils’ entire offense, leading the team in both rushing and receiving in 2020 before nearly duplicating that feat in 2021. If he can live up to the Day 2 draft capital the team spent on him in 2022, White could be one of the biggest breakout players in the league this season.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.