NFL MVP Odds Update: Brock Purdy, Dak Prescott Lead The Way

Taking a survey -- prior to the season, how many of you had Dak Prescott and Brock Purdy as the two MVP frontrunners this late in the year? Right, same here. Sort of.

Ironically enough, I authored an article back in June that laid the foundation for Purdy to propel himself into the MVP conversation. Fast-forward to now, much of that has come to fruition -- the San Francisco 49ers are among the league's elite, and Purdy is playing masterfully.

Staying in the NFC, Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys have also shined in 2023. After a mediocre 2022 campaign, Prescott is arguably playing the best football of his career right now. Of course, we can expect his current MVP odds to move one way or the other after Dallas takes on the Philadelphia Eagles this weekend on Sunday Night Football.

With no action until Thursday, let's dig into the latest NFL MVP odds with an eye on jumps and drops.

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

*Denotes 2022-23 NFL AP MVP

Notable Jumps

Brock Purdy, QB, San Francisco 49ers

FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: +300

As just touched on, we are living in a world where "Mr. Irrelevant 2022" is now an MVP frontrunner in 2023. Of course, second-year quarterbacks have won the NFL's top individual award before -- names like Lamar Jackson (2019), Patrick Mahomes (2018) and Dan Marino (1984) should ring a bell.

There is a growing contingent of folks who want to provide any number of reasons that Purdy should not be named MVP -- HC Shanahan is too good a play-caller, Purdy's skill group is too talented, Purdy doesn't go downfield enough, etc.) -- but the Iowa State alum absolutely deserves consideration. Not only is San Francisco 9-3 atop the NFC West, but Purdy shows the highest QBR (75.6) in the NFL right now. Also, his 9.6 yards per attempt paces all starting quarterbacks in 2023.

At the moment, Purdy's stock is as high as it ever has been. Before the season, the second-year signal-caller was labeled with 40-to-1 odds in FanDuel Sportsbook's MVP market -- he now reflects at +300 here. His 314 passing yards and 4 scores last Sunday in a headline game in Philly has Purdy looking golden.

Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys

FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: +300

Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott seems to be in top gear. After Prescott co-led the NFL in interceptions last year, no player has thrown more touchdowns than Prescott's 26 in 2023. From there, the Mississippi State alum is currently top five in both passing yardage (3,234) and QBR (75.4).

Right now, the Cowboys are performing more than well enough to keep Dak in the MVP conversation. At 9-3, Dallas has gone 6-1 since being embarrassed in Northern California earlier this season. Given the 'Boys prevalence in the national media (being "America's team"), Prescott will likely be in the MVP consideration so long as he limits his turnovers. In 2023, he has done exactly that.

In the introduction, I mentioned that Prescott's MVP chances -- along with Dallas' postseason trajectory -- are intrinsically linked to this Sunday's showdown at "Jerry World." Under the lights in Arlington, Prescott and the Cowboys will have an opportunity to showcase their talent against the Eagles. If you can only watch one NFL game this week, make sure it is that one.

Steep Drops

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs

FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: +650

As one of only two active players to have won multiple NFL MVP awards (yes, I still consider Aaron Rodgers "active"), Patrick Mahomes might not be having his best year in 2023, but there is still ample time left to right the ship. Despite operating with a stellar defense in K.C. (17.3 PPG allowed), the Chiefs have some aspects to address.

When Mahomes won the MVP in 2022, he did well to lead the league in TD passes (41), passing yards (5,250) and overall QBR (79.0). Now in 2023, "Showtime" is not top-three in any of those categories. Still, the fact that Kansas City currently has the most drops in the NFL (32) is not helping whatsoever.

Whether the storylines in K.C. this season have been more focused on Taylor Swift, Travis Kelce or Mahomes himself is irrelevant. The Chiefs are 8-4 and en route to their record eighth straight AFC West title. They would do well to stop alternating wins and losses (a K.C. trend that has been ongoing since Week 7). However, as it is now, Mahomes is still in the MVP race.

Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers

FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: +20000

I'm sure many had high hopes for Justin Herbert in the 2023-24 MVP market, but any final hope here seemed to dissolve last Sunday in Massachusetts (even though the Los Angeles Chargers emerged victorious). In that game, the Bolts defeated the New England Patriots by a meek score of 6-0. In the win, Herbert passed for 212 yards with no scores.

Undeniably, the 6-foot-6 Herbert is one of the most physically talented quarterbacks in the NFL. The imposing Oregon alum has quality mobility, touch on the football and a bazooka arm hanging from his right shoulder. Regardless, Herbert's efforts have not been enough for the Chargers to make the leap this year as they sit at an underwhelming 5-7.

Even with a recent win in Foxborough, Herbert's MVP stock has dropped incrementally in each of the past four weeks. Herbert will almost certainly have chances to win an AP NFL MVP at some point in his career, but it is extremely unlikely he will rally to do so in 2023, Maybe his path would have been easier if Los Angeles' defense was not allowing the fourth-most yards per game (379.5)

Honorable Mention

Trending Up

• Tyreek Hill +1500

Falling Down

• Trevor Lawrence (ankle, odds N/A, awaiting more info)

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.