NFL MVP Betting: Is Brock Purdy Worth a Look?

Brock Purdy was one of the best feel-good storylines of the 2022 season. After being selected with the final pick (No. 262) in the NFL Draft by the San Francisco 49ers, Purdy ultimately found himself starting in the NFC Championship game as a rookie.

Now known as "Mr. Relevant," Purdy put the league on notice following injuries to both Trey Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo. Purdy wound up taking the majority of snaps for San Francisco's final nine games of the year (including postseason), emphatically notching eight wins in a row before the NFC title game. In that span, the 49ers averaged 29.8 points per game.

Of course, Purdy's rookie campaign came to a screeching halt in the aforementioned NFC Championship Game when a blitzing Haason Reddick of the Philadelphia Eagles crashed into him for a strip sack, tearing Purdy's UCL in the process.

Fast-forward to the present, and Purdy is working to recover from Tommy John surgery. All appears on track so far for the former Iowa State standout, and he maintains the team's backing going into the season. This article will assume Purdy recovers in time to start 2023 on the active roster.

The NFL MVP odds at FanDuel Sportsbook have Purdy at +4000 to win the AP NFL MVP award in 2023, tying him with Russell Wilson of the Denver Broncos and Kenny Pickett of the Pittsburgh Steelers for 16th-best odds. For those wondering, Lance is +5000 in this market.

Let's break down Purdy's chances.

A Great Situation

We saw it when he was in a Cyclone uniform, and we were reminded again in the NFL -- Brock Purdy has the intangible playmaking ability that you look for in your favorite basketball team's point guard. In head coach Kyle Shanahan's dynamic offense, this playmaking ability is hyper-productive.

Outside of their successful offensive schemes, San Francisco is also thoroughly deep among their skill groups. They have multi-faceted running backs, wide receivers and tight ends. Purdy doesn't have to do anything crazy to put up big numbers; he can merely run the offense as it's intended to be run and will get help from his talented group of playmakers.

On the other side of the ball, the 49ers boast one of the most talented defenses in the NFL. Nick Bosa just won the 2022 AP Defensive Player of the Year award and is showing no signs of slowing down. Fred Warner is perhaps the most complete linebacker in the game. Also, Pro Bowl defensive tackle Javon Hargrave was brought to the Bay Area via free agency. San Francisco's defense should keep them in every game this year, allowing Purdy to collect wins and inflate his MVP stock.

All of the pieces are in place in San Fran, and the futures market reflects that. Per the Super Bowl odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, the Niners are tied as the fourth-biggest favorite (+1000). Their win total is listed at 10.5 (with a -142 price on the over), according to FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL win totals.

Winning is a prerequisite for any serious MVP candidate, and Purdy is going to check that box.

The 49ers' 2023 Offensive Outlook

The best thing about the 49ers' offensive approach under HC Shanahan is that you -- quite literally -- never know who is getting the football or how they will be obtaining it. Wonderfully enough, Purdy's quick processing ability and coolness under pressure complement this concept in a cohesive manner.

Between tri-threat Christian McCaffrey, "wideback" Deebo Samuel, bruiser George Kittle, receiver Brandon Aiyuk and full-back Kyle Juszczyk, San Francisco can apply hundreds of variations from a plethora of sets. Running back Elijah Mitchell is also there to bring more thunder on the ground. Getting a presnap read is nearly impossible for a defense, especially with rampant orbit and fly motions. I'd imagine it would be quite fun to play quarterback in an offense like this.

Some of the qualities we mentioned about Purdy resemble another 49ers signal caller. As is now legend, Joe Montana was always the coolest one on the field. Like Purdy, Montana never had the biggest arm, but the four-time Super Bowl winner featured quick decision-making and fantastic touch and took advantage of a brilliant offensive scheme en route to the Hall of Fame. One last similarity: Montana was also selected by the 49ers well outside the prestigious first two rounds of the draft.

A Division in Flux

As stated, winning is a requirement for any quarterback to win MVP, and not just winning -- they need to capture a division title. The last time a player won the MVP but not his own division was when Peyton Manning did it in 2008 (when the Tennessee Titans won the AFC South).

Fortunately for Purdy and San Francisco, they're the clear favorite in the NFC West, listed at -165 to win the division, according to FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL division winner odds. San Fran is the biggest division favorite in the NFL.

Both the Los Angeles Rams and Arizona Cardinals are not viewed as contenders in 2023, with each sitting in the bottom nine in Super Bowl odds.

That leaves the Seattle Seahawks as San Francisco's main competitor for the NFC West crown. The 49ers trounced Seattle on three separate occasions last season, including a 41-23 beatdown on Wild Card weekend -- Purdy threw for 332 yards and 3 touchdowns that day.

Conclusion

There remains a chance that Purdy is not healthy enough to begin the 2023 season. Be that as it may, the starting job appears to be his to lose once he's able to take the field. Everyone from general manager John Lynch to Shanahan to Kittle has echoed sentiment in Purdy's favor.

Purdy remains in an optimal position for production with the 49ers. With their current personnel, San Francisco's offense will typically have matchup advantages against opposing defenses. Doing what Purdy does, he will distribute the rock to those best in place to make a big play. The 49ers are loaded with yards-after-catch monsters who can boost Purdy's numbers.

Most times, the quarterback on any contending time is likely to receive MVP-chatter. Given San Francisco's roster depth, everything is in place for the 49ers to be one of the NFL's top teams, something that is reflected in the betting market.

If the Niners are among the league's elite and Purdy puts up quality numbers, it may thrust Purdy's name into the MVP mix.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.