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NFL Divisional Round Betting Picks: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions

Gabriel Santiago
Gabriel Santiago•@gps_onthemic

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At long last, the NFL Divisional Round is finally here.

Known as the best weekend in football, the Divisional Round annually offers four of the most contentious games of the year. Out in Motor City, we will see exactly that when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Detroit Lions get together.

For head coach Dan Campbell and the Lions, the Honolulu-blue bunch is riding high after outlasting the Los Angeles Rams, who were led by a familiar face in Matthew Stafford. Overall, the win served as the Lions' first postseason victory since 1992. With veteran signal-caller Jared Goff navigating Detroit's offense, will we see more magic in the 313?

Last Monday evening, head coach Todd Bowles and Tampa Bay upset the Philadelphia Eagles in convincing fashion. Showing as a field-goal home underdog, the Bucs thoroughly dismantled the Birds en route to a 32-9 victory. In that bid, quarterback Baker Mayfield reminded us of his skills, tossing three scores to eliminate the reigning NFC champions.

Naturally, this all sets up for an epic clash in the D. At Ford Field, the Lions will look to advance to their first conference title game in more than 30 seasons. For Tampa, they are looking to reach their second Super Bowl in four years.

Of course, if the Green Bay Packers can upset the San Francisco 49ers on Saturday (where the Niners are a 9.5-point favorite), that means the winner here will have the luxury of hosting the upcoming NFC title game -- imagine the possibilities.

Being that kickoff for Buccaneers-Lions is only a few days away, there's no sense wasting time. See below for my best bets on Sunday's clash in Detroit.

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions: Spread, Moneyline, and Total

Spread: Lions -6.5

Moneyline:

  • Tampa Bay: +225
  • Detroit: -275

Total: 48.5 (-105/-115)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions: Best Bets

Lions -6.5 (-110)

Pitting two hard-nose sides together, the Lions and Bucs should provide an entertaining clash of styles on the gridiron this weekend.

Seemingly, Tampa Bay (9-8) is a team playing with house money. At season's beginning, the Buccaneers were labeled with +7500 odds in FanDuel Sportsbook's Super Bowl LVIII market. Additionally, Tampa began with a win total of just 6.5 games. Fast-forward to now, and the Bucs have added another NFC South title while currently showing +3300 odds to go the distance.

Overall, Detroit (12-5) was sure to take advantage of Aaron Rodgers' first year away from the division, winning their inaugural NFC North crown. The Lions' scoring prowess was one of their driving forces. Through 17 regular season contests, Detroit produced 27.1 points per game (PPG): Motor City's highest clip dating back to 2011. Larger scale, Goff was the league's third-leading passer in 2023, outputting 4,575 yards.

For the Bucs, their offense wasn't quite as prolific this season, but Tampa still managed 20.5 PPG. Of course, the bread and butter for West Central Florida resides on defense. With numerous key contributors from their most recent Super Bowl run in 2021 (Vita Vea, Antoine Winfield Jr., Lavonte David and Devin White), the Buccaneers remained stingy this year by allowing only 19.1 PPG (seventh-best). However, pertaining to yards through the air, Tampa surrendered more slack (268.7 YPG) than all but two teams in 2023.

It will be quite fun to see Tampa Bay's defense match up with the Lions' offense, but in this moment, I lean toward Detroit.

As alluded to, Goff produced one of his best campaigns through eight seasons in the NFL. Also, wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown reached the third-highest receiving total at 1,515 yards. From there, a stout offensive line and two dynamic rookies -- Jahmyr Gibbs (11 TDs) and Sam LaPorta (10 TDs) -- have made all the difference for Detroit. Tailback David Montgomery brings the boom. Impressively, each of those four skill players for the Lions went for double-digit touchdowns this campaign.

At numberFire, Detroit (4.51 nERD) is viewed as the seventh-best team in the NFL. Comparatively, the Buccaneers (2.42 nERD) are four spots down at 11th overall. When surveying numberFire's NFL game projections, the Lions are estimated to win this Sunday by a score of 29.09-21.55. That covers our home spread here of -6.5 points, leaving one point of cushion.

As such, I am on Lions against the spread (ATS). Ironically, Detroit and Tampa were the top two NFL teams in terms of cover rate this season -- they have both played to a 12-6 ATS record thus far.

Under 48.5 (-115)

As much as I love the Lions' current offensive group, I'm concerned that the set combined total of 48.5 points (O -105/U -115) is just a bit too tall. Between the four games this weekend, Bucs-Lions features the second-largest total. Of course, this game will not have any weather concerns, as the playing conditions inside Ford Field are always optimal -- a factor that Coach Bowles is well aware of.

Through Wild Card Weekend, the under has hit at a 12-6 (66.7%) clip in contests that Tampa Bay has competed in. Largely, the Bucs' run defense has been a major proponent of this, as they were a top-five unit in terms of suffocating opposing ground attacks.

Montgomery, Gibbs and Detroit's big offensive line will be up to the challenge when facing the Buccaneers' fierce defensive front. Still, I think that physical battle in the trenches can slow down the game just enough for under 48.5 to prevail.

When these same sides clashed Week 6 in Tampa Bay, the Lions emerged victorious by a score of 20-6. That game featured a lower total of 43.5 points, yet the under easily converted. I am looking for a similar game with the venue flipped to Detroit Rock City -- under 48.5 (-115) feels most wise in my eyes.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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