NFL Divisional Round Betting Picks: Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills

We'll cap off what should be a very exciting Divisional Round with a third playoff installment of Patrick Mahomes vs. Josh Allen.

Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs are 2-0 against Allen and the Buffalo Bills in the postseason, including a 2022 Divisional Round matchup that served football fans with one of the most thrilling endings in recent history.

Both these teams rolled past their opposition in the Wild Card Round and head into this one with plenty of momentum. Mahomes will embark on the first road playoff game of his career, and while it's probably an overwrought storyline, it won't be easy for KC to leave Highmark Stadium with a win. Allen touts a 5-1 home playoff game record and has led this Bills team to six straight wins.

Can Allen and the Bills finally win the postseason game against the Chiefs, or will Mahomes and company force the doubters to eat their words? The game kicks off this Sunday at 6:30 p.m. ET and can be watched on CBS.

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills: Spread, Moneyline, and Total

Spread: Bills -2.5 (-122)

Moneyline:

• Buffalo: -148
• Kansas City: +126

Total: 45.5

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills: Best Bet

Chiefs +2.5 (+100)

This isn't an anti-Bills bet, but given the circumstances leading up to this Sunday, I'm finding the most value in taking the points here at even money.

According to numberFire's nERD-based power rankings, the Chiefs are ranked fifth in the league, made up of a 10th-ranked schedule-adjusted offense and fourth-ranked schedule-adjusted defense. The Bills, meanwhile, find themself a spot ahead as the fourth-ranked team, boasting the third-ranked defense and sixth-ranked offense.

Buffalo's offense has been rolling, putting at least 20 points on the board in nine straight games. Allen hasn't been relying solely on Stefon Diggs, mixing in the likes of Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox, and Khalil Shakir in the passing game. Gabriel Davis (knee) remains on the injury report, and though we can't claim him as the ultimate needle-mover, his absence could be felt this weekend.

But as good as Allen has been, it's hard to mess with this second-ranked Kansas City pass defense. KC's D ended the regular season with the league's best sack percentage and allowed the second-fewest yards per pass attempt.

Buffalo will likely have to turn to its run game to get things going, and it's a rushing attack that is ranked first overall, per numberFire. James Cook is solid, checking in with the 11th-best mark in rushing yards over expected per carry (+0.45), according to Next-Gen Stats, and Allen is one of the best running QBs out there.

Kansas City's offense has looked shoddy at times, but last weekend's game against the Miami Dolphins was pretty encouraging. They weathered the brutal temperatures and managed a 26-7 victory, with Rashee Rice going for 130 yards and Isiah Pacheco leading the run game with 89 yards.

While we can't compare Miami's D to Buffalo's D, the injury report has been pretty brutal to the Bills this year, and this week is no exception.

Christian Benford, Terrel Bernard, Baylon Spector, Taylor Rapp, and Taron Johnson round out the key defensive players on Buffalo's injury report. Johnson (concussion) has been limited in practice this week, so while he could suit up, it's quite concerning that a lion's share of the Bills' key defensive starters have yet to practice as of Thursday. Mahomes should be able to take advantage if Buffalo's secondary is weaker than normal.

These teams met up in Week 14 at Arrowhead Stadium, with the Bills winning by a score of 20-17 after a controversial ending. Pacheco did not play in that contest, so the Chiefs' run game was hardly supported by Clyde Edwards-Helaire.

Bills Mafia will be out in full force and Allen has been showing mature efforts, but when offered points to side with Mahomes at even money, I'll take it, especially with this banged-up Buffalo defense.

If you're betting on any of Saturday, January 20th's NFL playoff action, you can take advantage of FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL Playoffs No-Sweat Same Game Parlay. Check the promotions page for more information.

Looking for the latest NFL odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the NFL betting options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.