NFL Defensive Player of the Year Odds Update: 3 Frontrunners Have Emerged

The 2023 season is reaching the halfway mark, and the race for the coveted NFL Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY) award is still anyone's for the taking. Some of the biggest names in the league have come sprinting out of the gates already, making this one of the most exciting awards races of the year to follow.

Let's take a look at the FanDuel Sportsbook's Defensive Player of the Year Winner odds for some of the 2023 campaign's frontrunners in the chart below.

It seems clear that there are already some tiers beginning to form. We'll break down each of those tiers to add more context to what the rest of the DPOY race could look like in the second half of the season.

The Big 3

The three distinct frontrunners for the DPOY award this year are starting to get a leg up on the rest of their competition, but not necessarily over each other -- yet. Each of Micah Parsons, Myles Garrett, and T.J. Watt have legitimate cases to take home the title as they lead some of the fiercest defensive units in the NFL.

Parsons (+200), the Dallas Cowboys' star edge rusher, is well on his way to a third straight All-Pro season to open his young career. The 24-year-old has finished in second place in DPOY voting in each of the last two seasons, so he's already been knocking on the door. In seven games he has racked up six sacks, nine tackles for a loss, a forced fumble, and two pass defenses, giving him a strong and balanced stat sheet as he bolsters his case.

numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics rank the Cowboys third in pass defense off the back of Parsons' skills rushing the passer. If he keeps playing at this level, it will be hard to count him out of the DPOY race.

As good as Parsons has been, it's a little surprising to see he has the same +200 odds as Cleveland Browns star Myles Garrett to take home the award. Garrett's stats stack up pretty favorably to Parsons', as the former first overall pick has 8.5 sacks (3rd in the league) in seven games, with 7 tackles for a loss, 4 forced fumbles, 17 QB knockdowns (2nd in the league) and a pass defended.

The Browns arguably have the strongest defense in the league through the first half, bolstering Garrett's case to win the award. If their offense can figure itself out, Garrett could start separating himself from the pack. If you haven't had a chance to see him in action yet this year, just watch him shed a double-team for a sack against the Seattle Seahawks:

Trailing slightly behind the two front-est-runners, Pittsburgh Steelers edge rusher T.J. Watt (+250) is assembling a solid case to take home his second DPOY award in three years. The stud pass rusher has similar stats to Parsons and Garrett when it comes to reaching the quarterback (tying Garrett with 8.5 sacks in seven games), but he has been making more of an impact than his rivals once the ball is in the air. Watt's six pass defenses pace his closest competitors, plus he has snagged an interception.

Throw in a defensive touchdown on a fumble recovery, and it's not hard to see why Watt is still a frontrunner, even as the Steelers have looked rough battling to a 4-3 record.

Don't Call Them Underdogs

Parsons, Garrett, and Watt might be leading the pack when it comes to betting odds, but the next tier of defensive stars each have strong statistical foundations to start the year that could turn into DPOY-caliber seasons. If any of "The Big 3" miss time, each of these players could see their odds of taking home the award vault upwards.

2022 second-overall pick Aidan Hutchinson (+3000) has been having a strong sophomore campaign with the Detroit Lions, but it's still a little surprising to see him with the fourth-best DPOY odds. His raw stats trail those of his competition (4.5 sacks; 4 TFLs) while his PFF pass rush grade ranks 12th among qualified players -- well behind players with longer odds than him to win the award.

That said, his 17 hurries lead the league, implying there's some regression in store for the breakout pass rusher. Still, his odds seem slightly inflated due to the Lions' strong start to the season, making him a potential fade at his current +3000 odds.

Kansas City Chiefs tackle Chris Jones (+3300) should probably have better odds than Hutchinson given his start to the year. Jones has exceeded Hutchinson's raw production with 5.5 sacks and 5 TFLs in seven games while playing from the interior. His ability to collapse the pocket from its theoretically strongest point has been crucial to the Chiefs' defense, which ranks fifth-best in numberFire's defensive metrics.

The Chiefs' 6-2 record ties them for the second-best in the NFL. The DPOY award has gone to players on winning teams in each year since Miami Dolphins Hall of Famer Jason Taylor won the award in 2006. If Kansas City can continue to pile up wins, Jones' case should continue improving. He's even shown the flexibility to line up anywhere this season, like on this sack where he lined up over the right tackle:

Behind Jones and Hutchinson are Minnesota Vikings edge rusher Danielle Hunter (+4000) and San Francisco 49ers standout linebacker Fred Warner (+4000) -- the only linebacker with odds inside the top 13.

Hunter paces the league in both sacks (10) and TFLs (12) and looks like he should have a strong case on paper. Unfortunately, the Vikings just lost starting quarterback Kirk Cousins for the season to an Achilles injury and are on the precipice of having their campaign fall apart. He'll need to keep up his torrid pace and hope the Vikings can outperform expectations to keep his DPOY case alive.

Warner is a bit of an outlier as a traditional linebacker. He does everything well. He has two interceptions, has been superb against the run with five TFLs, and even has a pair of sacks in eight games (his career-best mark is three in a single season). Just check out this play of him vaulting the offensive line to prevent a QB sneak for a touchdown:

Unfortunately, for as much impact as he has on the game, his impact doesn't quite show up in the stats sheet as it does for some of the game's top pass-rushers. The closest comparable DPOY-winning season we have for a player in Warner's mold is Luke Keuchly's 2013 season, which saw his Carolina Panthers fielding the best defense in the league by a wide margin with multiple double-digit sack players helping to get the job done.

Basically, a lot has to go right for a traditional linebacker to take home the DPOY award, making Warner -- as incredible as he is -- a tough sell.

The Best of the Rest

The rest of the players on the chart above comprise the remaining players with odds better than +10000 to win the DPOY award. In other words, if you don't see a player in the chart, they are a long shot to take home the trophy.

Of this group, 49ers edge rusher Nick Bosa (+5000) and Bengals star Trey Hendrickson (+5000) stand out most.

Bosa has been a perennial DPOY contender since entering the league and has been great this year despite his low sack total (four). He's been getting to the quarterback at an elite rate with a league-best 19 QB knockdowns, so the sacks should start coming for him before too long. He has some ground to make up compared to competitors like Garrett and Parsons but is simply too good at what he does to ever count out.

Hendrickson hasn't gotten much love in awards season in the past with just two career Pro Bowl nods, but he has been a defense-defining piece for the Bengals during their recent stretch of playoff-caliber seasons. He's up to eight sacks on the year, has another eight tackles for a loss, and has forced two fumbles. He has been quietly keeping pace with some of the game's elite pass-rushers and could see his DPOY odds rise as the Bengals round into form.

Behind them, Las Vegas Raiders star Maxx Crosby (+6500) deserves a shoutout. The Raiders aren't going anywhere this season and have few defensive standouts behind the former day-three-pick-turned-star. Their defense as a whole ranks third-worst in numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics.

But Crosby has put up elite production despite the crumbling situation around him. He literally has not missed a single tackle while playing nearly 100% of the Raiders' snaps this season. Just look at him beating Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbsto the line of scrimmage in last week's loss:

His remarkable season so far is keeping him in the running for the DPOY award with +6500 odds, but his chances to win it seem likely to dwindle as the Raiders fall further and further into obscurity.

Lastly, my favorite "sleeper" of this group is Jacksonville Jaguars up-and-comer Josh Allen (+5000), who has been putting together a very impressive 2023 season without garnering as much attention as some of his peers.

Allen's nine sacks rank second (trailing only Hunter), he has eight tackles for a loss (one more than Garrett), and is generating turnovers with two forced fumbles -- one of which he returned for a touchdown. His breakout campaign has helped turn the Jaguars' defense into a quietly fantastic group. They rank fourth-best according to numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics.

The Jaguars' 6-2 record works in Allen's favor, as well, putting his team on track for a playoff berth as the champs of the AFC South. He stacks up well with the DPOY frontrunners both statistically and within the context of his team, making his longer +5000 odds a bit of an enigma. Don't expect his odds to continue lingering in that range for much longer if he can continue keeping pace with the best in the business.

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