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NFL Defensive Player of the Year Betting: Historical Stat Trends and Baselines

Brandon Gdula
Brandon Gdula•@gdula13

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There's no shortage of offseason NFL betting odds to focus on at FanDuel Sportsbook.

There are NFL division winner odds, NFL win totals, NFL season awards, and plenty more.

One of the season awards that jumps out is for the AP NFL Defensive Player of the Year betting market.

AP NFL Defensive Player of the YearFanDuel Sportsbook OddsAP NFL Defensive Player of the YearFanDuel Sportsbook OddsAP NFL Defensive Player of the YearFanDuel Sportsbook Odds
Micah Parsons+700Za'Darius Smith+10000Arik Armstead+20000
Myles Garrett+700Tariq Woolen+10000J.C. Jackson+20000
T.J. Watt+800Bobby Wagner+10000Denico Autry+20000
Nick Bosa+1100Nick Bolton+10000Jordan Poyer+20000
Ahmad Gardner+1300Kyle Hamilton+10000Jamal Adams+20000
Maxx Crosby+1300Minkah Fitzpatrick+10000Yannick Ngakoue+20000
Aaron Donald+2000Harold Landry+10000C.J.Mosley+20000
Brian Burns+2200Jalen Ramsey+10000Marshon Lattimore+20000
Haason Reddick+2500Sam Hubbard+10000Vita Vea+20000
Quinnen Williams+3000Darius Slay Jr.+10000Jordan Whitehead+20000
Aidan Hutchinson+3000Javon Hargrave+10000Khalil Mack+20000
Chris Jones+3000Will Anderson Jr.+10000Jessie Bates III+20000
Joey Bosa+3500Jack Jones+15000Demarcus Lawrence+20000
Rashan Gary+4000Antoine Winfield Jr+15000Odafe Oweh+20000
Roquan Smith+4000A.J Terrell+15000Budda Baker+20000
Patrick Surtain II+4000George Karlaftis+15000Marlon Humphrey+20000
Kayvon Thibodeaux+5000Devin White+15000Grady Jarrett+20000
Chase Young+5000Trevon Diggs+15000Leonard Williams+20000
Matthew Judon+5000Josh Uche+15000Deatrich Wise Jr.+20000
Fred Warner+5000Jeremy Chinn+15000Jeremiah Owusu-Koromoah+20000
Jaelan Phillips+5000Jaire Alexander+15000Jonathan Allen+20000
Von Miller+6000Lavonte David+15000Denzel Ward+20000
Travon Walker+6000Josh Allen (JAX)+15000Cam Heyward+20000
Bradley Chubb+6000Jalen Pitre+15000DeForest Buckner+20000
Trey Hendrickson+7500Jevon Holland+15000Azeez Ojulari+20000
Derwin James+7500Kevin Byard+15000Myles Jack+20000
Shaquille Leonard+8500Malcolm Rodriguez+15000Marcus Davenport+20000
Jaycee Horn+8500Shaquil Barrett+15000Gregory Rousseau+20000
Danielle Hunter+10000Tre'Davious White+15000Cameron Jordan+20000
Talanoa Hufanga+10000Stephon Gilmore+15000Chandler Jones+20000
Jeffrey Simmons+10000Xavien Howard+20000Jalen Carter+20000
Justin Simmons+10000Tyrann Mathieu+20000Alim McNeill+20000
Randy Gregory+10000Derek Stingley+20000 

But what has it taken to win the award recently?

We'll look at trends since 1971 when the award started but also since 1994 when tackles were tracked consistently.

NFL Defensive Player of the Year Trends

Here's a breakdown of winners by position since 1971.

AP DPOY Since 1971WinnersWin Rate
Linebacker1732.7%
Defensive end1426.9%
Defensive tackle1019.2%
Cornerback611.5%
Safety59.6%

Some notable trends since 2000:

  • The more recent awards still feature a pretty similar breakdown.
  • The defensive tackle win rate since 2000 dropped from 19.2% overall to 13.0% (with all three awards going to Aaron Donald).
  • Linebackers and defensive ends have accounted for 59.6% of overall wins and 65.2% of wins since 2000.

Defensive Player of the Year Stat Breakdowns

Here are some notes on how players fared in key defensive stats within their own position during the year of their win. All stats below are since 1994.

  • When compared to the rest of their position, Defensive Player of the Year winners have ranked, on average:
    • 19.7 in tackles
    • 10.1 in interceptions
    • 12.2 in sacks
  • By position, here is how winners' stat lines have averaged for a 17-game pace:
    • Linebacker:
      • 10.1 sacks, 123.0 tackles, 2.7 interceptions, 3.1 forced fumbles, 0.6 defensive touchdowns
    • Defensive end:
      • 18.1 sacks, 74.4 tackles, 0.5 interceptions, 5.0 forced fumbles, 0.7 defensive touchdowns
    • Defensive tackle:
      • 16.0 sacks, 54.5 tackles, 0.0 interceptions, 4.4 forced fumbles, 0.0 defensive touchdowns
    • Cornerback:
      • 0.7 sacks, 60.2 tackles, 7.8 interceptions, 1.5 forced fumbles, 3.0 defensive touchdowns
    • Safety
      • 2.5 sacks, 89.9 tackles, 6.8 interceptions, 1.5 forced fumbles, 1.1 defensive touchdowns

Takeaways

As expected, productivity is crucial in order for players to bring home the hardware, but that's especially true with havoc stats such as interceptions and sacks.

Seven of the 29 sack leaders since 1994 won the award, a 24.1% win rate before accounting for any other productivity.

Interceptions and defensive touchdowns are essentially a must for cornerbacks and safeties to win. Since 1994, just one defensive back won the award without a defensive score: Bob Sanders in 2007, when he had just two interceptions but led all safeties in tackles (97) and was 40th in the NFL in tackles overall.

Of the six defensive backs since 1994 who have won, more of them had multiple scores (four) than zero or one score (two).

The overall trends say to target linebackers and defensive ends, especially since the 2000 season.


The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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