NFL Defensive Player of the Year Betting: Historical Stat Trends and Baselines
There's no shortage of offseason NFL betting odds to focus on at FanDuel Sportsbook.
There are NFL division winner odds, NFL win totals, NFL season awards, and plenty more.
One of the season awards that jumps out is for the AP NFL Defensive Player of the Year betting market.
AP NFL Defensive Player of the Year | FanDuel Sportsbook Odds | AP NFL Defensive Player of the Year | FanDuel Sportsbook Odds | AP NFL Defensive Player of the Year | FanDuel Sportsbook Odds |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Micah Parsons | +700 | Za'Darius Smith | +10000 | Arik Armstead | +20000 |
Myles Garrett | +700 | Tariq Woolen | +10000 | J.C. Jackson | +20000 |
T.J. Watt | +800 | Bobby Wagner | +10000 | Denico Autry | +20000 |
Nick Bosa | +1100 | Nick Bolton | +10000 | Jordan Poyer | +20000 |
Ahmad Gardner | +1300 | Kyle Hamilton | +10000 | Jamal Adams | +20000 |
Maxx Crosby | +1300 | Minkah Fitzpatrick | +10000 | Yannick Ngakoue | +20000 |
Aaron Donald | +2000 | Harold Landry | +10000 | C.J.Mosley | +20000 |
Brian Burns | +2200 | Jalen Ramsey | +10000 | Marshon Lattimore | +20000 |
Haason Reddick | +2500 | Sam Hubbard | +10000 | Vita Vea | +20000 |
Quinnen Williams | +3000 | Darius Slay Jr. | +10000 | Jordan Whitehead | +20000 |
Aidan Hutchinson | +3000 | Javon Hargrave | +10000 | Khalil Mack | +20000 |
Chris Jones | +3000 | Will Anderson Jr. | +10000 | Jessie Bates III | +20000 |
Joey Bosa | +3500 | Jack Jones | +15000 | Demarcus Lawrence | +20000 |
Rashan Gary | +4000 | Antoine Winfield Jr | +15000 | Odafe Oweh | +20000 |
Roquan Smith | +4000 | A.J Terrell | +15000 | Budda Baker | +20000 |
Patrick Surtain II | +4000 | George Karlaftis | +15000 | Marlon Humphrey | +20000 |
Kayvon Thibodeaux | +5000 | Devin White | +15000 | Grady Jarrett | +20000 |
Chase Young | +5000 | Trevon Diggs | +15000 | Leonard Williams | +20000 |
Matthew Judon | +5000 | Josh Uche | +15000 | Deatrich Wise Jr. | +20000 |
Fred Warner | +5000 | Jeremy Chinn | +15000 | Jeremiah Owusu-Koromoah | +20000 |
Jaelan Phillips | +5000 | Jaire Alexander | +15000 | Jonathan Allen | +20000 |
Von Miller | +6000 | Lavonte David | +15000 | Denzel Ward | +20000 |
Travon Walker | +6000 | Josh Allen (JAX) | +15000 | Cam Heyward | +20000 |
Bradley Chubb | +6000 | Jalen Pitre | +15000 | DeForest Buckner | +20000 |
Trey Hendrickson | +7500 | Jevon Holland | +15000 | Azeez Ojulari | +20000 |
Derwin James | +7500 | Kevin Byard | +15000 | Myles Jack | +20000 |
Shaquille Leonard | +8500 | Malcolm Rodriguez | +15000 | Marcus Davenport | +20000 |
Jaycee Horn | +8500 | Shaquil Barrett | +15000 | Gregory Rousseau | +20000 |
Danielle Hunter | +10000 | Tre'Davious White | +15000 | Cameron Jordan | +20000 |
Talanoa Hufanga | +10000 | Stephon Gilmore | +15000 | Chandler Jones | +20000 |
Jeffrey Simmons | +10000 | Xavien Howard | +20000 | Jalen Carter | +20000 |
Justin Simmons | +10000 | Tyrann Mathieu | +20000 | Alim McNeill | +20000 |
Randy Gregory | +10000 | Derek Stingley | +20000 |
But what has it taken to win the award recently?
We'll look at trends since 1971 when the award started but also since 1994 when tackles were tracked consistently.
NFL Defensive Player of the Year Trends
Here's a breakdown of winners by position since 1971.
AP DPOY Since 1971 | Winners | Win Rate |
---|---|---|
Linebacker | 17 | 32.7% |
Defensive end | 14 | 26.9% |
Defensive tackle | 10 | 19.2% |
Cornerback | 6 | 11.5% |
Safety | 5 | 9.6% |
Some notable trends since 2000:
- The more recent awards still feature a pretty similar breakdown.
- The defensive tackle win rate since 2000 dropped from 19.2% overall to 13.0% (with all three awards going to Aaron Donald).
- Linebackers and defensive ends have accounted for 59.6% of overall wins and 65.2% of wins since 2000.
Defensive Player of the Year Stat Breakdowns
Here are some notes on how players fared in key defensive stats within their own position during the year of their win. All stats below are since 1994.
- When compared to the rest of their position, Defensive Player of the Year winners have ranked, on average:
- 19.7 in tackles
- 10.1 in interceptions
- 12.2 in sacks
- By position, here is how winners' stat lines have averaged for a 17-game pace:
- Linebacker:
- 10.1 sacks, 123.0 tackles, 2.7 interceptions, 3.1 forced fumbles, 0.6 defensive touchdowns
- Defensive end:
- 18.1 sacks, 74.4 tackles, 0.5 interceptions, 5.0 forced fumbles, 0.7 defensive touchdowns
- Defensive tackle:
- 16.0 sacks, 54.5 tackles, 0.0 interceptions, 4.4 forced fumbles, 0.0 defensive touchdowns
- Cornerback:
- 0.7 sacks, 60.2 tackles, 7.8 interceptions, 1.5 forced fumbles, 3.0 defensive touchdowns
- Safety
- 2.5 sacks, 89.9 tackles, 6.8 interceptions, 1.5 forced fumbles, 1.1 defensive touchdowns
- Linebacker:
Takeaways
As expected, productivity is crucial in order for players to bring home the hardware, but that's especially true with havoc stats such as interceptions and sacks.
Seven of the 29 sack leaders since 1994 won the award, a 24.1% win rate before accounting for any other productivity.
Interceptions and defensive touchdowns are essentially a must for cornerbacks and safeties to win. Since 1994, just one defensive back won the award without a defensive score: Bob Sanders in 2007, when he had just two interceptions but led all safeties in tackles (97) and was 40th in the NFL in tackles overall.
Of the six defensive backs since 1994 who have won, more of them had multiple scores (four) than zero or one score (two).
The overall trends say to target linebackers and defensive ends, especially since the 2000 season.
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