NFL Betting: Who Will Record the Most Rushing Yards in the Divisional Round?

Eight teams are alive in the NFL playoffs with the Divisional Round taking place this weekend. The remaining teams all rank among numberFire's top-13 adjusted overall offenses for the season, but there is a wide range in the rushing games of those teams.

The rushing offenses in action this weekend range from the league-leading Buffalo Bills to the Houston Texans, who rank 29th. The rush defenses in action range from the Baltimore Ravens' second-ranked unit to the Green Bay Packers, who rank 27th.

FanDuel Sportsbook -- per their NFL odds -- is offering odds for which player will lead the Divisional Round in rushing yards.

With plenty of intriguing options available, which player will lead the way on the ground this weekend?

NFL Divisional Round Betting

Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers (+200)

Christian McCaffrey leading the way should come as no surprise. He led the NFL in rushing yards this season with 1,459 (5.4 yards per carry) -- 292 more yards than Derrick Henry in second. McCaffrey had the third most runs of 20-plus yards (nine) and 40+ yards (three), scored the fourth-most rushing touchdowns (14), and led the league in rushes that resulted in a first down (83%).

The San Francisco 49ers' offense ranks first overall, per numberFire's schedule-adjusted rankings, with a passing game that ranks first and a run game that ranks second. McCaffrey has the best of both worlds; he is elite at what he does and is on a team that knows how to maximize his strengths. It's perfect combination for efficient production.

After dealing with a calf injury for the past two weeks, McCaffrey is back to logging full practices. Assuming he is at full strength this weekend, he will also benefit from an extremely friendly matchup. Per numberFire’s models, the spread between the 49ers’ offense rushing rating and Packers’ rush defense rating (104.19) is the second-largest on this weekend’s slate.

Operating as the focal point of an offense attached to a 9.5-point home favorite with the highest team total (30.5 points) of the weekend, McCaffrey is set up for success and is a deserving favorite. He also leads the way in numberFire’s rushing yards projections for this weekend with 80.0 -- 7.0 more than Isiah Pacheco in second.

Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers (+500)

Next up is Aaron Jones, who will be on the opposite sideline from McCaffrey on Saturday. Jones battled injuries for large parts of the season but has been excellent since his return in Week 15. He has at least 20 carries and 100 rushing yards in each of his last four games – including his 118 yard, three-touchdown performance against the Dallas Cowboys on Wild Card Weekend.

From a matchup perspective, the 49ers' run defense is not a huge obstacle for Jones. San Francisco’s run defense ranks 17th, yet they are a much better unit against the pass, where they rank 5th, per numberFire.

A much larger obstacle will be game script. Against Dallas, the Packers took the lead on their opening drive and never looked back, playing the entire game with a lead. As 9.5-point underdogs this weekend, it is unlikely that same game script repeats itself. If the Packers are forced to play from behind, it could limit Jones’ rushing volume.

numberFire's models, which currently assume A.J. Dillon, who is listed as questionable with thumb and neck injuries, will play hint at this possibility. Among running backs expected to be active this weekend, Jones ranks seventh in projected carries (13.93) and sixth in rushing yards (66.8).

James Cook, Buffalo Bills (+800)

Third on the odds list is Buffalo’s James Cook. Few players have been more impacted by the Bills’ midseason change in offensive coordinator than Cook.

In the first 10 games of the season, Cook averaged 12.0 carries per game; in the 8 games since Joe Brady took over for Ken Dorsey, Cook is averaging 16.9 carries per game. Under Dorsey, Cook reached 17 carries in a game once, and under Brady, he has reached that number four times, including a 25-carry game against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 15.

Cook is averaging 4.73 yards per carry this season -- below McCaffrey but slightly better than Aaron Jones. This weekend, Cook will have a chance to outperform his average in an excellent matchup. Buffalo’s top-ranked rushing offense, per numberFire, will be taking on a Kansas City Chiefs run defense that ranks 25th. The margin between those two units in numberFire’s ratings, 115.69, is the largest on this weekend’s slate.

Like Jones, there are some game script concerns for Cook in this one. The Bills are favored at home -- but only by 2.5 points. When these two teams met back in Week 14, Cook only recorded 10 carries, his lowest total in any game since Brady was promoted to offensive coordinator. In that game, Josh Allen recorded 42 pass attempts, his second-highest total in Brady’s eight games in charge. Buffalo jumped out to a 14-0 lead at the start of the second quarter and never trailed, so the game script was not to blame.

numberFire's model has Cook projected for the fifth-most carries (14.92) and rushing yards (67.71) this weekend, slightly above Jones in both categories.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.