NCAA Tournament: Which Cinderella Will Go Deeper -- Texas or Iowa?

Very few had either the Texas Longhorns (11) or the Iowa Hawkeyes (9) winning two games and reaching the Sweet 16. To get here, Texas had to survive a play-in game versus NC State and then take down both BYU and Gonzaga, while Iowa faced the reigning-champion Florida Gators in the second round.

With High Point (12) losing to Arkansas on Saturday night, the men's college basketball tournament is devoid of mid-major Cinderella teams around which the nation rallies, like Butler in the early 2010s or St. Peters in 2022. Texas and Iowa are the biggest underdogs left in the tournament. How did they get here, and how far can they go?

Check out our updated March Madness bracket as we head into the Sweet 16.

March Madness Cinderella Teams 2026

Paths to the Sweet 16 for Texas and Iowa

Iowa is from the Big Ten and Texas the SEC, so it's a different vibe than Loyola Chicago making it this far. However, this year, neither team was particularly impressive in the regular season. Regardless of the school’s size, it is captivating to watch a team catch fire in March and begin knocking off ranked opponents.

Iowa finished a ho-hum 10-10 in Big Ten play this year, good for a 9th-place finish in the conference. The Hawkeyes were the last team in the dance from the Big Ten, snagging a 9 seed in the South Region.

Texas, an SEC school now, was also .500 in conference play at 9-9. Like Iowa, the Longhorns were the last team from their conference to make the tournament. Texas needed to play its way into the 64-team group on Tuesday. A Tramon Mark game-winning jumper against NC State in the play-in game earned the Longhorns a spot in the bracket as an 11 seed against BYU.

Texas Defeats NC State, BYU, and Gonzaga

We mentioned the Longhorns' victory over NC State in the play-in game on Tuesday. What we didn't mention is that Texas was a slim underdog in that contest, meaning they've pulled off 3 consecutive tournament upsets to survive into the Round of 16.

These 3 upsets came on the heels of 3 consecutive losses leading up to this tournament. The Longhorns lost to Arkansas and then Oklahoma to close out SEC play before going one-and-out in their first game of the SEC tournament against Ole Miss. Two weeks ago, Texas hardly looked like a team that could win a single game in the March tournament, let alone three!

Texas' first-round draw against 6-seed BYU was a favorable one. The Cougars were hardly worldbeaters themselves, coming into the game at 23-11 and 9-9 in Big 12 play. FanDuel Sportsbook only had the Cougars favored by a couple of points, so Texas's upset win was a mild one.

It was the Longhorns' win on Saturday over 3-seed Gonzaga that sent shockwaves through the bracket. The Zags had only lost 3 times on the season prior to this game. Gonzaga has had so much success lately that it is often mentioned in the same breath as college basketball blue bloods.

When Round-of-64 play began Thursday, the Longhorns held just a 15% chance to reach the Round of 16. They defied the odds. Their reward is 2-seed Purdue. We'll discuss below how Texas stands to fare in this matchup and any potential future games.

Iowa Defeats Clemson and Florida

After losing to Ohio State in the 2nd round of the Big Ten tournament, Iowa was slotted in as a 9 seed by the committee and drew Clemson in the first round. The books had this game as a coin flip, but the Hawkeyes prevailed 67-61 on the backs of guards Bennett Stirtz and Kael Combs, who combined for 31 points and 9 rebounds. Stirtz never came out of the game, playing a full 40 minutes.

It's hard to get excited about the winner of an 8-9 matchup because the region's 1 seed awaits in the second round. The South's 1 seed is the defending-champion Florida Gators, and the Gators were favored by double digits on Sunday.

Despite a terrible shooting night for their star Bennett Stirtz (0-9 from three), Iowa advanced. A 20-point effort on 70% shooting from Tavion Banks and a game-winning three while down a point from Alvaro Folgueiras in the final seconds of the game are to thank. The Gators were stunned. Brackets were busted. Iowa is moving on.

Is Iowa or Texas More Likely to Make a Deeper Cinderella Run?

The Iowa Hawkeyes are far more likely to play deeper in this tournament than Texas. They have a much cushier Round-of-16 matchup and a softer potential Round-of-8 matchup, too. Iowa gets 4-seed Nebraska on Thursday, a familiar foe from the Big Ten. Texas gets 2-seed Purdue, a far superior opponent.

The Hawkeyes are only slight underdogs to Nebraska. FanDuel Sportsbook gives Iowa a 46% chance to win on Thursday, which dwarfs Texas' 28% odds they have against Purdue.

This alone gives Iowa a much better chance than Texas of reaching the semifinals, but the edge doesn't stop there. Because the Hawkeyes knocked out their region's 1 seed, they won't have to face a 1 seed in the Round of 8. If Texas upsets Purdue, they could very well stand to play 1-seed Arizona in the following round, a brutal matchup.

The Longhorns have come so far since the beginning of the tournament, and yet so much of the struggle is still ahead of them that their championship odds are below 1%. The Longhorns have the toughest path to Indianapolis in the field, which is to be expected considering their seeding.

Iowa is not particularly likely to reach Indy either, but their odds are certainly better. The Hawkeyes' Round-of-16 game versus Nebraska has the narrowest spread of the round, while they are the only team that doesn't have to worry about facing a 1 seed in the Round of 8.

Which March Madness odds stand out to you this year? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest college basketball betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.