NBA Western Conference Winner Odds: Can Anyone Catch Denver?

The opening month of the 2023-24 NBA season is officially complete.

There is a long way to go still, but we have now seen a glimpse of what we can expect from each team this season.

Let's take a look at the Western Conference Winner Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook and see where we stand heading into December.

Here is a full list of the odds, with a breakdown of the top six teams.

Denver Nuggets (+220)

The Denver Nuggets won the West on their way to winning the NBA Championship last season. While they are not currently favorites to repeat as NBA Champions, with the Boston Celtics having shorter odds, they are slight favorites to win the West again.

Sitting at 12-6, the Nuggets are tied for second in the West and, together with the Suns, form a two-team tier at the top of the odds. The West is much more competitive than the East, with eight teams having odds shorter than +1500 compared to just four in the East. However, like the East, there are two teams that are clearly above the rest.

Per Dunks & Threes, the Nuggets rank 6th in adjusted offense rating (aORTG) at 117.2 but are 14th in adjusted defense rating (aDRTG) at 113.1. That gives them an adjusted net rating (aNET) of +4.1 that ranks fourth.

They have faced the 23rd-most difficult schedule thus far, per Dunks & Threes, and Nikola Jokic is the favorite, per the NBA MVP Odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, to win his third MVP (+200).

In short, not much has changed in Denver after a relatively quiet offseason. They finished last season ranked 5th in aORTG and 18th in aDRTG, and through one month, they find themselves in a similar situation.

Phoenix Suns (+280)

The Phoenix Suns had an extremely busy offseason and have battled injuries for most of the season thus far, with Devin Booker and Bradley Beal missing multiple games. Booker is back, but Beal is expected to miss at least another week and a half.

Despite their injuries, the Suns sit at 11-6, and their odds of winning the West are similar to Denver's. After Phoenix, there is a large drop in odds. Unlike in the East, where the Philadelphia 76ers have emerged as a threat (+650) to the Celtics (+150) and Milwaukee Bucks (+180), no team has closed the gap on the Nuggets and Suns yet.

Phoenix ranks 7th in aORTG (116.8) and 20th in aDRTG (114.5) for an aNET of +2.3 that ranks 9th. They have faced the easiest schedule so far, per Dunks & Threes, which has helped them overcome their early-season injuries.

Phoenix finished last season ranked 16th in aORTG (114.7) and 7th in aDRTG (112.8), the opposite of where they stand at the moment.

The Suns have won seven games in a row but face big tests against Denver and Golden State in two of their next four. How quickly Beal comes back and the impact he has once he's fully integrated will have a large impact on the Suns' outlook the rest of the way.

Golden State Warriors (+850)

The Golden State Warriors made several changes to their roster this offseason after losing to the Lakers in the second round of the playoffs, most notably acquiring Chris Paul and trading Jordan Poole to the Wizards.

Through 17 games, the Warriors sit at 8-9, good for 10th in the West. Despite their slow start, they remain the team most likely to challenge Denver and Phoenix, but there are several teams right behind them.

The Warriors rank 13th in aORTG (114.7) and 12th in aDRTG (112.5) for an aNET of +2.1 that ranks 11th. The story of the Warriors' season thus far, outside of Draymond Green's suspension, has been the difficulty of their schedule.

Golden State has faced the third-hardest schedule in the NBA so far -- only the San Antonio Spurs and Brooklyn Nets have faced a tougher slate of opponents. The schedule eases up a bit soon, but not by much. Over their next five games, the Warriors play the Clippers (15th in aNET) three times, as well as the Kings (18th) and Suns (9th).

Last season, Golden State ranked 9th in aORTG (115.6) and 15th in aDRTG (113.9), not far off from where they are right now.

Despite their difficult schedule, the Warriors currently have a positive point differential (+0.2). They've had several close losses to good teams, and they are likely better than their record indicates.

Los Angeles Lakers (+1000)

The Los Angeles Lakers finished last season as the best-of-the-rest in the West, making the conference finals before getting swept by Denver. After a slow start to the season, getting to the WCF was a decent result for Los Angeles, but for a team that only has one goal in mind at the start of each season, it wasn't good enough.

One month into this season, the Lakers sit at 10-8, tied for seventh in the West. Along with the Warriors ahead of them and Dallas behind them, Los Angeles forms a three-team middle tier of challengers to the Suns and Nuggets at the top of the West.

The Lakers rank 17th in aORTG (112.9) and 15th in aDRTG (113.4) for an aNET of -0.5 that ranks 22nd. Per Dunks & Threes, they have faced the 15th-easiest schedule this season.

Last season, Los Angeles ranked 20th in aORTG (114.4) and 13th in aDRTG (113.9) for an aNET of +0.6. It's early, but things don't look much different this season. Their offense is slightly worse, and their defense is slightly better.

The problem for Los Angeles is that the gap between themselves and Denver, as evidenced by last season's sweep, remains large. The Lakers have been healthy, as LeBron James and Anthony Davis have missed just one game each and are averaging 33.6 and 35.3 minutes played per game, respectively. The eventual return of free agent acquisition Gabe Vincent will help, but Los Angeles still has to show more to improve their odds.

Dallas Mavericks (+1100)

The Dallas Mavericks missed the playoffs last season, losing eight of their last 10 games to finish just outside the cutoff for the Play-In Tournament.

They began this season in opposite form, winning eight of their first 10 games. Since then, they have lost four of six and are currently at 10-6, good for fifth in the West.

Dallas' early season results have been more in line with what they expected when they traded for Kyrie Irving last February. Irving is averaging 24.4 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 5.5 assists per game. Meanwhile, Luka Doncic has the second-best odds to win NBA MVP (+550), averaging 30.5 points, 7.9 rebounds, and 7.8 assists per game.

The Mavericks rank 5th in aORTG (117.4) but 25th in aDRTG (116.8) for an aNET of (0.6) that ranks 16th. Offensively, Dallas has a better rating than Denver, whereas defensively, they are similar to the Charlotte Hornets. Their 119.4 points per game ranks 6th, while their 118.3 points allowed per game ranks 24th. Dallas has faced the fourth-easiest schedule thus far.

Dallas finished last season ranked 6th in aORTG (116.3) and 24th in aDRTG (116.7), so this is nothing new to them. Dallas has allowed at least 127 points in five of their six losses this season. The Mavericks have faced only two teams currently ranked inside the top 10 in aNET so far this season, the Bucks and Nuggets. Despite averaging more points in those games than their current season average, they lost both because their defense allowed point totals of 132 and 125.

For Dallas to be a serious challenger in the West, they likely have to improve on defense. They don't need to be elite, but it will be difficult for them to win playoff series against other contenders playing defense as they currently are.

Los Angeles Clippers (+1300)

The Los Angeles Clippers finished last season in disappointing fashion, losing to the Suns in the first round of the playoffs. They were competitive in that series, but injuries to Kawhi Leonard and Paul George were too much to overcome. This season, the primary difference is the addition of James Harden, who the Clippers acquired via trade in late October.

After losing their first five games with Harden available, Los Angeles has won four of their last six and currently sit at 7-9, good for 11th in the West.

The Clippers rank 20th in aORTG (112.6) and 9th in aDRTG (111.9) for an aNET of +0.7 that ranks 15th. They have faced the second-easiest schedule so far, per Dunks & Threes.

Los Angeles finished last season ranked 21st in aORTG (114.2) and 17th in aDRTG (114.1). So far this season, they have improved slightly on both sides of the ball.

The problem is, like the Lakers, the gap between the Clippers and the top teams in the West is more than the improvement they've shown. Los Angeles is fighting a battle on two fronts -- chemistry and availability.

First, they need Harden and their new roster to get playing time together so they can reach the level of the Suns and Nuggets. Second, they have to reach that level and have their stars stay healthy.

The talent is there, but that has been the case for the Clippers for a couple of seasons now. They need it to all come together if they are going to compete in the West.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.