NBA Rookie of the Year Odds Update: Holmgren Holds the Lead in Two-Horse Race

The San Antonio Spurs' Victor Wembanyama has been the NBA's 2023-24 Rookie of the Year favorite for most of the season, but the Oklahoma City Thunder's Chet Holmgren has been nipping at his heels nearly the entire way. With the Spurs at 5-28 and the Thunder in second place in the Western Conference with a 23-9 record, Holmgren's value to one of the best squads in the West has become too much to overlook.

We have a new leader in the Rookie of the Year race. After being hailed as a generational talent and a near-lock to win Rookie of the Year, could Wemby really fall short? What has elevated Holmgren to the leading position, and what could Wembanyama need to accomplish to regain the lead? A couple of dark horses could also be worth a look, as the Miami Heat have an emerging rookie.

Here's a look at FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NBA Rookie of the Year odds.

Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City Thunder (-250)

Most expected the Thunder to take another leap this season, but not to this degree. OKC is becoming a legitimate contender with the fourth-shortest odds to win the Western Conference (+750), per FanDuel's NBA conference odds. Chet Holmgren has played a major role in the rise of the Thunder. Becoming an instrumental piece on a contending team gives Chet a great argument for winning the award.

His 22.1% usage rate is nothing to sneeze at; it's not far behind Josh Giddey's 24.2% and Jalen Williams' 22.4%. Of course, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander -- the MVP contender -- leads this category by a wide margin with a 32.5% usage rate. Regardless, Holmgren is one of the top options on one of the league's best teams.

Chet's stats also hold up against his rookie counterparts. He is averaging 17.6 points per game (PPG), which is second among rookies, and his 7.6 rebounds per game (RPG) is third among rookies. His contributions on defense have been perhaps the biggest talking point. His 2.7 blocks per game (BPG) is second among rookies, and Holmgren carries an impressive 111.9 defensive rating (second-best among OKC's starters). His elite rim protection has played a huge role in boosting the Thunder's defense to the third-best rating in the league.

If Oklahoma City stays hot and competes atop the West, it's hard to imagine someone passing Chet in the Rookie of the Year race. He is posting impressive numbers on a potential contender. That's about as good as it gets for a Rookie of the Year argument.

Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs (+150)

As you probably noticed, Holmgren was not first in any of the major stat categories. So who is at the top? Victor Wembanyama leads all rookies with 18.9 PPG, 10.2 RPG, and 3.1 BPG. If Wemby is leading major stats, how is he not the Rookie of the Year leader?

First, we must consider what the Spurs have accomplished. The addition of Wembanyama has done little for San Antonio's success. They have a .152 win percentage compared to .268 in the 2022-23 season. If anything, the Spurs have only gotten worse.

Most importantly, Wemby's efficiency hasn't been impressive. He's shooting 44.4% from the field and 29.4% from three. For comparison, Holmgren is shooting 54.3% and 40.7% from three-point land. Clearly, there's a big difference in shot attempts, as Wembanyama is averaging 15.8 shots per game compared to Chet's 11.9.

Wemby will be relying on his stat totals to potentially pass Holmgren for Rookie of the Year. He certainly has the usage rate to increase his numbers with a team-high 30.2% usage rate. Wembanyama's chances could simply come down to whether he can improve his shooting splits.

Longshots

It's very unlikely that anyone outside of Holmgren or Wembanyama wins this award. Still, we should look at some of the rising names in the race.

The Heat's Jaime Jaquez Jr. is the new face to keep an eye on. He now has the third-shortest odds to win the award (+4500) and has carved out a key role in Miami. Since November 20th, Jaquez is averaging 33.4 minutes per game while totaling 16.8 PPG paired with a 50.8% field goal percentage (FG%). He also posted a career-high 31 points on Christmas -- which is always a big stage for the NBA.

Jaquez is still far behind Holmgren (-250) and Wembanyama (+150), but he could cut into the lead if he continues at his current level of production.

Dereck Lively is another rookie who is producing on a potential playoff team. The Dallas Mavericks' center ranks second among rookies with 7.7 RPG and ranks second on the team with a 115.7 defensive rating. However, Lively is likely lacking in the scoring department (9.0 PPG) to become a legit threat.

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