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NBA Pacific Division Winner Betting Odds: A Battle for the Baton

Aidan McGrath
Aidan McGrath@ffaidanmcgrath

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NBA Pacific Division Winner Betting Odds: A Battle for the Baton

The NBA's Pacific Division is unlike any other in the league.

Each of its five teams has a shot at making the playoffs, with no single representative earning fewer than 20 wins on the season. It's a division packed with stars and future Hall of Famers, making it one of the most exciting ones to follow league-wide.

A Pacific Division team made the NBA Finals in seven consecutive seasons between 2015 and 2021. It wouldn't be too surprising for one of its teams to grace the finals again this season.

The internal narratives make the Pacific unique among the NBA's divisions. We've seen the Los Angeles Lakers and the Golden State Warriors dominate it for most of the 2010s, only for those teams to fall into the fourth and fifth spots this season. They've seemingly passed the baton, and now each of the Los Angeles Clippers, Sacramento Kings, and Phoenix Suns are vying for the throne.

But which team will come out on top for the 2023-24 season? Let's take a look at FanDuel Sportsbook's Pacific Division Winner Betting Odds to get a better sense of how this fiercely contested division will shake out.

Pacific Division Winner Betting Odds

Team
Record
nF Rank
Odds
Los Angeles Clippers30-153rd-550
Sacramento Kings27-1813th+600
Phoenix Suns27-2011th+1300
Los Angeles Lakers24-2519th+9000
Golden State Warriors20-2418th+13000

Betting Odds Analysis

Based on these odds from FanDuel Sportsbook, the Clippers are the strong favorites to win the division with -550 odds. They hold a 3-game lead over the second-place Kings (+600 odds), who have as many wins as the third-place Suns (+1400) odds.

The In-Season Tournament Champion Lakers' 24 wins rank 17th league-wide. They're eight games back from the Clippers, but that's still a gap that stars LeBron James and Anthony Davis could theoretically close on before the season's end. Their +9000 odds reflect how hard it would be for them to accomplish that feat, though.

The once-dominant Warriors close out the division with a 20-24 record. They're still vying for a spot in the Play-In Tournament, but as their +13000 odds illustrate, they're virtually out of the running for the top spot in the Pacific.

From a top-down view, this looks like a three-team race. The Clippers have surged out to a nice lead but will need to sustain their strong play to fend off the Suns and Kings, who each claimed division titles of their own in the past two seasons. Should the Clippers be such heavy favorites as their odds imply?

Los Angeles Clippers (-550)

Over the past few seasons, talent has never been the issue for the Clippers -- their issue has been health.

Stars Kawhi Leonard and Paul George have been dominant on the court but have had trouble staying there in recent seasons. Even last year, the duo missed a combined 56 regular season games and 8 combined games in the playoffs.

They've missed only six combined games so far this year, and the team added some serious backup. Additions like James Harden and Russell Westbrook appear to have taken some of the pressure off of Leonard and George and have helped turn the Clippers into one of the strongest teams in the league.

According to numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics, the Clippers are the third-best team this year. They boast the fifth-best offense and the 10th-best defense and have even turned a corner in recent weeks. They've posted an impressive 11-3 record in the new year with decisive wins over tough competition like the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Boston Celtics.

They've earned their spot at the top of the division, but a three-game lead over the Kings doesn't lock them into a title just yet. They have the depth this year to be a strong playoff team even if one of Leonard or George gets hurt, but those stars will need to stay healthier this year than they have been in the past for the Clippers to take home the Pacific.

Sacramento Kings (+600)

The Kings claimed the Pacific Division title for the first time in 20 seasons last season, doing so on the back of a just-fine 48-34 record. Their young core has shown growth this year, paving the way to a 27-18 record (second in the division). But can they catch up to the Clippers and stave off the Suns?

According to numberFire's metrics, the Kings rank fourth-best in the division on both offense and defense -- not exactly where they'd like to be. And while they've won four straight games, they also recently suffered four consecutive losses to playoff contenders (the Philadelphia 76ers, the Milwaukee Bucks, the Suns, and the Indiana Pacers).

Just 10 of their wins have come against teams with winning records. And according to Tankathon's remaining strength of schedule model, they have the sixth-hardest remaining schedule across the NBA.

To make an uphill battle even steeper, they're in the midst of a brutal stretch of road games. Between January 9th and February 5th -- basically a whole month -- they'll have played 12 games on the road compared to just 2 at home. They're gutting through it right now, but that's a tough break for any team competing for a division title.

Phoenix Suns (+1300)

The Suns have as many wins as the Kings but have two more losses, as well, as they've played an extra pair of games compared to Sacramento. Given that they each have the same number of wins, though, I like the Suns and their +1300 odds as an arbitrage bet against the Kings.

Phoenix's 27-20 record is built a little different than Sacramento's 27-18 record. The team lost six games near the start of the season while star Devin Booker managed an injury. They've dropped just 13 games with him in the lineup and have won 8 of their last 10. Likewise, they played without offseason acquisition Bradley Beal for most of the opening two months. Since his return, the Suns are 12-5.

Tankathon's remaining strength of schedule metric does consider Phoenix's second-half schedule the second-hardest, so they'll be faced with an uphill battle of their own to overcome the Clippers. Still, they seem like a team with upside as their lineup of stars (including Kevin Durant) continues to gel.

It's not too hard to envision a world where the Clippers slide from first place and the Suns overtake the Kings.

Los Angeles Lakers (+9000) and Golden State Warriors (+13000)

Unfortunately for these former titans of the division, their reigns appear to be at an end.

Both are still in playoff contention and have legacies to uphold, meaning they should stay competitive through the end of the season. They just don't have realistic chances of taking the division.

The 24-25 Lakers are doing their best to keep pace with the Kings and Suns, but are still six games back from the Clippers. They would essentially need to witness each of those teams undergo catastrophic collapses down the stretch while simultaneously developing into a better-than-.500 team. That's possible with stars like James and Davis, but their long +9000 odds reinforce how long of a shot they are to take the division again.

Now take everything we just said about what the Lakers would need to do to win the division but replace the Lakers with the Warriors. The Warriors' Golden Age is a thing of the past, but they are still expected to remain competitive as long as they're in contention for a playoff berth. So while it's not impossible for them to claim the Pacific Division title, it's extremely unlikely.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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