NBA DFS Picks: Saturday 12/28/24

If you're looking to have some fun this basketball season, NBA DFS on FanDuel has you covered.

With NBA DFS, you can put your hoops knowledge to the test and ride with players you think will go off in a given night.

To help you along the way, we've got a bunch of tools here at FanDuel Research. Specifically, our NBA DFS projections, powered by numberFire, update throughout the day to reflect current news.

On top of all that, here at FanDuel Research, we'll come at you each day with this NBA DFS primer, which breaks down some of the day's top plays at each position.

Let's dive into today's main slate on FanDuel.

Betting lines via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. Projections and betting odds may change after this article is published. All injury news comes from the NBA's official injury report.

NBA DFS Picks for Today

Guards

Top Priorities

Stephen Curry ($8,500)

Resting on Friday to manage his knee injury, Stephen Curry is someone I continue to want to buy at this salary.

The Golden State Warriors' acquisition of Dennis Schroder hasn't really affected Curry's role. He's maintained a 26.4% usage rate compared to 27.5% for the season; poor shooting has just plagued the former league MVP.

Curry's shot (40.1% FG in December) showed improvement during a 38-point outing on Christmas, and a matchup with the Phoenix Suns, who allow the 12th-most made threes to point guards per game (3.2), could also help.

His salary didn't budge, and if Steph is Steph from the floor, he should be at least $9,000 on FanDuel.

Malcolm Brogdon ($5,800)

The Washington Wizards are pathetic, but I'll never ignore the rare instances they give Malcolm Brogdon ample floor time.

The reliable veteran has gotten 25.7 minutes per game in December and coming off a month-high total (31), which is pretty lethal at this salary given a rate of 36.9 FanDuel points (FDP) per 36 minutes this season.

Like Curry, he's struggled to 37.1% shooting in December. That could turn around with more opportunity -- such as Jordan Poole (ankle) sitting tonight. Brogdon sees a 2.0 percentage-point increase in usage rate with the volumer shooter off the floor.

FanDuel Research's NBA DFS projections expect 30.9 FDP in 29.9 minutes as of now, but that projection could spike through the roof if Poole takes a holiday like most of us have this week.

Others to Consider

Jalen Brunson ($8,300)

Ceding the most FDP per game to opposing point guards (56.6), it's hard to not consider any point guard against the Wizards, including Jalen Brunson. Brunson lit them up for 46.7 FDP on November 18th.

Jaden Ivey ($6,100)

Jaden Ivey's heroics on Thursday didn't translate to the FanDuel box score (26.2 FDP), but the combo guard's scoring projection has to be heightened against a Denver Nuggets team with a 117.4 defensive rating (DRTG) in games where Aaron Gordon (groin) didn't play.

Wings

Top Priorities

Paul George ($7,600)

Joel Embiid (foot) is listed as questionable in a game against the 7-22 Utah Jazz. You tell me if you think he's playing.

With that the case, Paul George's declining salary is incredibly attractive. George's 40.6% shooting would be his lowest seasonal mark since COVID, so nuclear games are likely inbound as the season progresses. Utah's league-worst 119.5 DRTG will cough up a few open looks.

Even with those woes, George has posted 39.2 FDP per 36 minutes with Embiid off the floor this season before a matchup with a Jazz squad allowing the sixth-most FDP per game to opposing small forwards (44.3). Utah is also a brisk 12th in pace across the NBA.

We've got George projected for 39.4 FDP. I see him as a high-floor way to spend coin when the Philadelphia 76ers are just seven-point favorites.

Mikal Bridges ($6,400)

A great lesson on why I discuss shooting regression was Mikal Bridges' explosion on Christmas.

I (and our projections) have been touting Bridges all season to minimal success, but the NBA's leader in minutes per game (38.9) finally started knocking down shots on Wednesday.

That 60.2-FDP nuke was an outlier -- as Thursday's 27.4-FDP outing showed. Yet, his salary is still too low at a median for such a gaudy on-court role with modest usage (19.5%).

I'll project somewhere in the middle of those two outcomes on Saturday for him against a terrible Washington defense (117.6 DRTG). Our projections are doing the same, forecasting 35.3 FDP in 38.6 minutes.

Others to Consider

Klay Thompson ($5,400)

With Luka Doncic (calf) sidelined for a while, the Dallas Mavericks have decided they might need Klay Thompson for a scoring punch. He's topped 28 minutes and 28 FDP in consecutive games before this matchup with the Portland Trail Blazers, who allow the most FDP per game to small forwards (45.7).

Christian Braun ($5,300)

Christian Braun should be locked into whatever minutes the Nuggets find in non-blowout situations. He logged 31 in yesterday's lopsided loss. Denver's rotation is so short that the idle producer still should produce well at this salary as our projections (26.2 FDP) believe.

Bigs

Top Priorities

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,800)

If Giannis Antetokounmpo plays through an illness, there's really no debate between he and Nikola Jokic with minimal value to fit both.

The former squares off with a Chicago Bulls squad that is the 3rd in pace and 26th in DRTG (116.5). The latter is in a pace-down spot against a Detroit Pistons squad that's performed better on that end (113.9 DRTG).

Antetokounmpo might also return to a heavy workload if Damian Lillard -- fighting potentially the same illness -- isn't able to return on this same night.

Giannis has averaged 60.2 FDP per game in two previous meetings with Chicago, and he's eligible at forward with a few value centers creeping up in our projections. Like a hot dog not being a sandwich, there is no debate here.

Peyton Watson ($4,800)

I'm not sure why Michael Malone doesn't see Peyton Watson as the one-to-one replacement for Aaron Gordon, but Watson will still see his role expand with the former top-10 pick sidelined.

Watson posted 28.2 FDP in 25 minutes last night, and he's averaged 28.2 FDP per 36 minutes this season with Gordon off the floor.

The third-year player is a low usage option (14.8% rate), so he's less reliant on matchup than court time. With that said, he's collected 2.5 stocks per 36 minutes this season, and Detroit allows 2.7 per game to the power forward position.

Caleb Martin ($4,700) is another good option that'll encroach 30 minutes at this spot today.

Others to Consider

PJ Washington ($6,600)

PJ Washington has been oversalaried for weeks with Doncic back, but he turns into an offensive force with Luka off the floor, averaging 37.7 FDP per 36 minutes in that situation. He's a name to watch today -- along with Jusuf Nurkic and Naji Marshall -- for any potential suspensions in light of Friday's brawl.

Mason Plumlee ($4,000)

Hilariously and appropriately, FDR is baking in a potential suspension for Nurkic today. Phoenix's backup center, Mason Plumlee, is projected for 24.1 FDP in 25.9 minutes at this tiny salary, but be wary of him given the Dubs typically match centers off the floor. I'll be going with Jalen Duren ($5,900) in single-entry formats.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.