NBA Championship Odds: The Celtics Are the Heavy Favorite

The NBA Play-In Tournament kicks off on Tuesday, commemorating the start of what should be a very exciting postseason.

Over on FanDuel Sportsbook, you can find an array of playoff markets, including East Playoff Series, West Playoff Series, Conference Winners, and more.

For this article, we'll turn our attention to the NBA championship odds and explore which futures could be worthwhile.

It's pertinent to note that a top-three seed has hoisted the Larry O'Brien trophy for 28 straight seasons dating back to 1995, so perhaps our focus can be narrowed among the top seeds.

NBA Championship Odds

Boston Celtics (+165)

The last 12 NBA championship teams finished their regular season in the top six in all of net rating, effective field goal percentage (EFG%), and total Player Impact Estimate (PIE).

The sole team that has met that criteria this season? None other than the Boston Celtics.

You'd be hard-pressed to find a bad thing to say about this Celtics team. They ended the regular season with an NBA-best +11.7 net rating (next-best rating was +7.3).

The only team in NBA history to outdo the C's in net rating were the '95-'96 and '96-'97 Chicago Bulls. We're talking about Jordan territory.

Boston's 37-4 home record is astounding and should be a great sign for what's to come as they own home-court advantage for the duration of the playoffs.

And the Celtics have been nothing short of consistent. They managed a 32-9 record in the first half of the season and a 32-9 record in the second half of the season.

In an Eastern Conference that is lacking any real threats, the Celtics could sleepwalk their way to the NBA Finals.

With all this being said, +165 odds seem awfully short when we've yet to even begin postseason play.

However, numberFire's model is actually finding a ton of value in backing Boston despite their short odds. numberFire hands the Celtics a 54.1% championship probability while these +165 odds imply just a 37.74% probability.

Denver Nuggets (+300)

If there's any team that can take down Boston, I have to imagine it's the defending champs.

The Denver Nuggets made last season's championship run look easy, and though they are situated among a tough-as-nails Western Conference, we should expect similar dominance this time around.

Statistically speaking, the Nuggets were better during this year's regular season than last year's.

Denver's 2022-2023 marks included a +3.3 net rating (sixth-best) and a 52-29 record (fourth-best in the NBA). But they finished this season with a +5.5 net rating (fourth-best) and a 57-25 record (tied for second-best).

When Nikola Jokic turns on the jets, he is the most unstoppable player in basketball. He ended this season with a 21.1 PIE (highest) and was the only player to post a 20.0 PIE or higher in either of the last two postseasons. In fact, he managed a 21.0 PIE or higher in each of the last two postseasons.

Despite Boston's dominance, it would be to no one's surprise to see Jokic and the Nuggets pull off the two-peat.

Minnesota Timberwolves (+1900)

The last time we checked in on the NBA championship odds, the Minnesota Timberwolves held +2500 odds to win it all.

Minnesota's stock has grown since February, but I still think the market could be underrating their potential.

The T-Wolves have most of the features of a championship-caliber team, including a 56-26 record (fourth-best), the third-best net rating, the second-best team PIE, and the league's best defensive rating.

On the flip side, there are a few reasons to count out Minnesota. For starters, they are pretty short on playoff experience, which typically doesn't bode well once we hit May.

Further, Minnesota's top-ranked defense should meet its match now that we're in the postseason. Teams show amped-up defensive intensity and prowess in the playoffs, and the T-Wolves -- who treated this regular season with arguably more reverence than any other squad -- might not have much room for improvement.

However, I still think Minnesota deserves consideration in this market. Beyond their high regular-season marks, they are a very legitimate candidate to take down the Celtics should we see that Finals matchup.

These teams gave us a pair of thrilling overtime games this season, with each siding winning one. Minnesota's size could serve as Boston's kryptonite.

At FanDuel Sportsbook, you can get Boston Celtics vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Finals Matchup at +1300. If you're at all bullish on the T-Wolves, I'd also consider throwing a dart at Minnesota Timberwolves to beat the Boston Celtics in the NBA Finals at +4000.

numberFire's model likes this bet, too. They give Minnesota a 9.4% championship probability while the T-Wolves' +1800 odds suggest just a 5.0% probability. Boston, meanwhile, is the only Eastern Conference team to own a championship probability higher than 2.6%, so the model is essentially treating them as a near shoo-in to make it to the Finals.

Minnesota has a very long way to go, but I like this value considering how they would, in theory, match up against Boston.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.