NBA Championship Betting Odds: Where Do Things Stand Heading Into the Conference Semifinals?

The first round of the 2023 NBA playoffs is officially in the books.

After several upsets -- most notably the Miami Heat eliminating the Milwaukee Bucks -- where do things stand heading into the Conference Semifinals?

Here are each team's current odds to win the NBA Championship, per FanDuel Sportsbook, as well as numberFire's odds for each of the remaining teams to be champs.

1. Boston Celtics (+130)

The Boston Celtics started their postseason with back-to-back wins at home against the Atlanta Hawks and appeared to be sailing into the second round after going up 3-1. A late-game collapse in Game 5 provided a reality check and forced the Celtics to close out the series on road in Game 6. They did so in a back-and-forth contest, closing strong in the fourth quarter to eliminate the Hawks.

The Celtics are averaging 121.2 points per game this postseason, second-most among remaining teams. Their 15.8 three-pointers made per game ranks first, with their 40.6% three-point percentage sitting third best. Potentially more important is their turnovers, 12.8 per game, which is tied for the second-fewest among remaining teams.

Next up is a clash with the Philadelphia 76ers, who may be without Joel Embiid due to a knee sprain. The 76ers' defense should provide a much tougher challenge for Boston than Atlanta's did. The Celtics are -560 to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals.

2. Golden State Warriors (+500)

A horrendous road record during the regular season saw the Golden State Warriors slide into the playoffs as a 6 seed. Their road struggles persisted, placing them in a 0-2 hole after dropping Games 1 and 2 to a young and talented Sacramento Kings team. With their backs against the wall, the Warriors, as they almost always do, responded, winning four of the next five games -- their comeback culminating in an epic 50-point performance from Stephen Curry on the road in Game 7.

The Warriors' 115.9 points per game this postseason ranks fifth among the remaining teams. They shot just 32.8% from behind the arc against the Kings, well below their regular season average of 38.5%, resulting in three fewer made three-pointers per game than their league-leading regular season average of 16.8. The Warriors have room to improve as they head into the Conference Semifinals, which is a scary thought for the rest of the league.

Next up for Golden State is a showdown with the Los Angeles Lakers. The Warriors will have home-court advantage and are favored to win the series (-158).

3. Denver Nuggets (+600)

The Nuggets cruised through their first-round series with the Minnesota Timberwolves, advancing in five games with an average margin of victory of 8.8 points.

They backed that up with an impressive Game 1 performance against the Phoenix Suns, a win in which they dominated in points scored, rebounds, and steals. Denver has the second-largest plus/minus (+10.3) this postseason, behind only the Philadelphia 76ers (+11.3).

The Nuggets' 116.0 points per game this playoffs ranks fourth among remaining teams, and their 11.7 turnovers per game are the fewest. Denver's one weakness this year has been their struggles on the road. However, if they can continue to dominate at home, the Nuggets won't be forced to win an away game unless they play the Boston Celtics in the NBA Finals.

4. Phoenix Suns (+600)

After dropping Game 1 to the Los Angeles Clippers at home, the Suns responded with four consecutive wins to advance. While the Suns got the result they wanted, they benefited from the absences of Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. Down two of their stars, the Clippers still played the Suns close for long stretches in Games 3 and 4.

In their first game against a full-strength Denver team, Phoenix lost on the road by 18 points.

The Suns' 119.5 points per game this postseason ranks third among the remaining teams. They average the fourth-most assists per game (25.5) and a league-leading field goal percentage (51.5).

Defense has been an issue for Phoenix as they are allowing 117.2 points per night. The only three teams that have allowed more points per game this postseason have already been eliminated.

The other story for the Suns is the minutes being played by their superstars. Devin Booker (42.6 minutes) and Kevin Durant(42.6) lead the league in minutes played per game this postseason. They have been excellent, with Booker's 35.5 points per game tied with Jimmy Butler for most in the playoffs, but the deeper into the playoffs Phoenix gets, the more those minutes start to add up.

As it stands, the Suns are +144 to win their series with the Nuggets and advance to the Western Conference Finals.

5. Los Angeles Lakers (+1000)

After an impressive end to their regular season, the Lakers emerged from the Play-In Tournament as the 7 seed and pulled off the upset over the Memphis Grizzlies in 6 games. They needed overtime at home in Game 3 and lost two of three on the road, but LA finished the series in emphatic fashion, notching a 40-point victory in Game 6.

Their reward? A second-round meeting with the Warriors.

The Lakers' 112.2 points per game ranks sixth among the remaining teams. Their three-point field goal percentage (31.0%) checks in seventh, and they are attempting the third-most three-point field goals per game (35.0). They have struggled on offense but have been dominant on D, allowing only 104.7 points per game, third-best among remaining teams. They held Memphis to just 40.2% shooting from the field, the lowest of any team in the first round.

Another positive for the Lakers is the lack of minutes they were forced to play LeBron James and Anthony Davis against the Grizzles. In stark contrast to Phoenix's stars, James (37.1 minutes) and Davis (36.4), rank 27th and 32nd, respectively, in minutes played per game.

More minutes from those two will likely be required to defeat the Warriors. Defending Golden State is a more difficult task, one James is familiar with.

The Lakers are +134 to beat Golden State and advance to the Western Conference Finals.

6. Philadelphia 76ers (+1100)

Philadelphia rolled through their series against the Brooklyn Nets and were the only team produce a sweep in the first round.

The 76ers' 103.8 points scored per game this postseason ranks seventh among the remaining teams. What Philadelphia has lacked in scoring they have more than made up for in defense and rebounds. Their 48.5 rebounds per game ranks second, and their 92.5 points allowed per game ranks first.

Maintaining those elite numbers against the Celtics would have been difficult enough, but now they may be forced to do so without Joel Embiid.

Embiid's health remains the most important factor for the 76ers' odds of winning the NBA Championship. With Embiid, a trip to the NBA Finals is within reach. Without Embiid, getting past Boston will be an incredibly difficult task. Embiid is listed as doubtful for Game 1 on Monday night due to a knee sprain.

With Embiid's status uncertain, the 76ers are +420 to defeat the Celtics and advance to the Eastern Conference Finals.

7. Miami Heat (+2000)

After barely escaping the Play-In Tournament, the Miami Heat did the improbable and eliminated the top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks.

Not only did they defeat the Bucks, they did so in just five games -- their impressive run was spearheaded by legendary performances from Jimmy Butler. The absence of Giannis Antetokounmpo for most of Game 1 and all of Games 2 and 3 helped Miami, but the Heat's two most impressive performances of the series came with him back in action for the final two games of the series.

The absence of Tyler Herro, who broke his hand in Game 1, didn't slow down Miami's offense. They torched a Bucks defense that ranked fourth in the league in adjusted defensive rating during the regular season, scoring a league-leading 124.0 points per game.

Including their Game 1 victory over the, the Heat pace the remaining teams in points per game and three-point percentage (42.9%). They rank third in overall field goal percentage (50.4) and second in field goals made per game (44.8).

It remains to be seen how long they can maintain this level of play, but Miami is just three wins away from a return trip to the Eastern Conference Finals.

Up 1-0 against the Knicks, the Heat are -146 to win the series.

8. New York Knicks (+2400)

The Knicks easily dispatched the Cleveland Cavaliers in Round 1, winning three consecutive games to close out the series in Game 5. In what was expected to be one of the more closely contested series of the first round, Cleveland faltered against the Knicks' impressive defense.

The Knicks' 99.8 points scored per game ranks last among remaining teams. They also rank last in field goals made per game (36.8), field goal percentage (43.8), three-point field goals made per game (8.2), three-point percentage (18.0%), and assists per game (18.5). Their 14.8 turnovers per game is tied with the Lakers for most among the remaining teams.

As you've likely surmised, the Knicks advanced thanks to their defense, which held Cleveland to just 94.2 points per game. They have also been impactful on the boards, allowing just 37.5 rebounds per game, the second-fewest (behind the 76ers). They lead the playoffs in offensive rebounds per game (14.5) and rank second in field goals allowed per night (79.5).

At some point, the Knicks' lack of offense will catch up to them. It did down the stretch in their Game 1 loss to the Heat. Julius Randle will likely help if he is able to return from his ankle injury, but he has also struggled in these playoffs, averaging just 14.4 points per game while shooting 33.8% from the field and 23.5% from behind the arc.

The Knicks are +120 to defeat Miami and advance to the Eastern Conference Finals.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.