NBA Betting Picks for Thursday 3/28/24: Will the Pelicans Take Flight as Home Underdogs?

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Best Bets

Boston Celtics at Atlanta Hawks

Hawks +16 (-110)

The Atlanta Hawks have dealt with lengthy injury reports over their last three games, which included the absences of Trae Young, Saddiq Bey, Jalen Johnson, and Onyeka Okongwu. All four players are double-digit scorers, and of course Young still leads the team with 26.4 points per game (PPG) and 10.8 assists per game (APG).

The injury report isn't looking much better for today as Atlanta plays host to the top squad in the NBA -- the Boston Celtics. The Hawks are significant 16-point underdogs for tonight. However, this spread feels quite high. Atlanta is on a three-game winning streak while going 3-0 against the spread (ATS). This included a two-point win against Boston on March 25th.

The Celtics have a pair of notable questionable players for tonight in Jrue Holiday and Al Horford. Boston will have a bit more in their toolbox as Derrick White is expected to play; he missed the recent head-to-head matchup.

Even with White joining the party, is a 16-point spread really feasible? Various models are leaning on the Hawks to cover. numberFire's daily game projections is suggesting Atlanta ATS, and Massey Ratings is predicting the Celtics will win 123-112.

Atlanta's offense has been playing extremely well during the win streak, logging 124.0 PPG while shooting 53.4% from the floor and 45.4% from three. The three-point shooting should especially draw interest, for Boston allows ninth-most three-point shots per game.

This spread just feels far too high, and the Hawks are playing well. Atlanta even took down the Celtics only a few days ago. The Hawks' side is the way to go.

Milwaukee Bucks at New Orleans Pelicans

Pelicans Moneyline (-102)
Pelicans Team Total Over 111.5 (-118)

The Milwaukee Bucks against the New Orleans Pelicans is expected to be a much closer game than the Celtics-Hawks as the Bucks are one-point favorites on the road. The public is on Milwaukee with 87% of moneyline picks and 80% of spread bets backing the Bucks.

I'm going against the public by taking the home underdog. New Orleans will be without Brandon Ingram for the fourth consecutive contest. The Pelicans are 2-1 during Ingram's last three absences. The offense had good shooting splits during the span with a 49.0% field goal percentage (FG%) and 39.8% three-point percentage.

Ingram has the second-highest usage rate on the team (27.8%), but New Orleans has managed to still find success when their star forward is off of the court. In fact, the Pelicans have a +36 plus/minus while shooting 55.8% on two-pointers and 40.1% on three-pointers when Ingram is off of the court in 713 possessions. Both are over New Orleans' season marks of 55.3% from two (12th-best) and 38.0% from three (6th-best).

Keep in mind, the Bucks still have a rather mediocre defense with the 14th-best rating. Milwaukee gives up the 15th-most three-point shots per game and the 12th-most points in the paint each contest.

I like the Pelicans' chances of having another solid scoring day. Along with the moneyline, taking over New Orleans' 111.5 team total looks like another solid bet. The Pels are averaging 112.3 PPG over the last three games, which is just good enough for the over.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.