NBA Betting Picks for Thursday 1/4/24: Taking Totals for Today's Doubleheader

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Best Bets

Milwaukee Bucks at San Antonio Spurs

Over 247.5 (-112)

Thursday's NBA slate features only two games, and it is a doubleheader on TNT. Even with fewer games and lines available today, there are still intriguing picks present. First, let's start with the Milwaukee Bucks against the San Antonio Spurs -- the opening game of the doubleheader.

This isn't exactly the kind of matchup fans are clamoring for on primetime TV as the Spurs have the worst record in the Western Conference (5-28) while the Bucks sit in second in the Eastern Conference (24-10). While Milwaukee is 7-3 over their last 10 games and ranks fourth in numberFire's nERD-based power rankings, they are not invulnerable. In fact, the Bucks have the league's 10th-worst defensive rating.

Over their previous five contests, opponents are averaging 125.2 points per game (PPG) while shooting 49.1% from the field against Milwaukee. For reference, 125.2 PPG would be the second-highest mark among the NBA's 30 teams, and the 49.1% field goal percentage (FG%) would be the fourth-best number.

San Antonio has simply been a mess, sporting the Association's second-worst offensive rating and sixth-worst defensive rating. However, they could find some success on offense today with a good chance of getting plenty of shot attempts. Both teams are among the league's top four quickest paces, and the Spurs total the fourth-most field goal attempts per contest.

The Bucks' paint defense has been a big weakness, for they give up the 6th-most points in the paint per game and have the 12th-worst mark in opponent two-point percentage. How do you remedy a struggling offense with poor efficiency? Easy shots around the rim could get the job done. The Spurs have some capable players who could live in the paint, including Victor Wembanyama (18.9 PPG; 42.6% of shots within 10 feet) and Zach Collins (12.9 PPG; 52.8% of shots within 10 feet).

The fastbreak is another area where San Antonio could thrive; Milwaukee gives up the 8th-most fastbreak points per game while the Spurs average the 10th-most fastbreak points per game.

Crafting an argument for the Bucks to light up the scoreboard tonight does not take much. Milwaukee boasts the third-best offensive rating, and San Antonio has the NBA's second-worst defense. This pretty much sums it up as the Bucks should have a long list of advantages.

This could include Milwaukee holding the second-best effective field goal percentage (eFG%) while the Spurs have the fourth-worst mark in opponents' eFG%. The Bucks attempt the eighth-most threes per contest, and San Antonio gives up eighth-most three-point shots per game. Giannis Antetokounmpo (30.8 PPG) could post monster numbers with his potential matchup against Jeremy Sochan (119.3 defensive rating) -- which could be useful for FanDuel's No Sweat Same Game Parlay for tonight's NBA TNT games.

You get the point: Milwaukee should have no problem scoring tonight. With the Bucks' electric offense and shaky defense, the over could be in line to hit.

Denver Nuggets at Golden State Warriors

Under 235.5 (-108)

TNT's nightcap is a Western Conference clash between the Denver Nuggets and the Golden State Warriors. Similar to the first contest, I'm targeting another total for this matchup. The under is 22-12 in Denver games -- which is the highest under mark among all NBA teams. The Nuggets have also gone under in 8 of the last 10 contests.

Despite the Warriors averaging the 10th-most PPG, Denver could control the pace of this game, leading to the under. The Nuggets have the 2nd-slowest pace in the league, compared to Golden State holding the 13th-quickest tempo. Winning the possession battle could determine who controls the pace.

The Warriors average the fifth-most turnovers per game while totaling the fifth-fewest takeaways per contest. Meanwhile, Denver averages the third-fewest turnovers per game. The Nuggets also frequently take possessions deep into the shot clock, averaging the third-most field goal attempts per game with 4 to 7 seconds left on the shot clock.

Alongside their slow pace of play, Denver has the eighth-best defensive rating. Most importantly, the Nuggets match up well with Golden State thanks to their excellent perimeter defense. The Warriors shoot the fourth-most threes per game, and Denver gives up the third-fewest three-pointers per contest.

Jamal Murray (111.0 defensive rating) and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (110.7 defensive rating) have been an exceptional defensive backcourt for the Nuggets and could help slow Golden State's Stephen Curry (27.6 PPG) and Klay Thompson (16.7 PPG). Curry has shot under 37.0% from the field in three of his last four games, and Thompson has totaled only 10.0 PPG with a 31.1 FG% over his previous four contests.

The under is tracking to be a promising bet due to Denver's slow pace of play along with Curry's and Thompson's recent struggles.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.