NBA Betting Picks for Friday 1/5/24: Timberwolves Are Hungry for a Cover

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Best Bets

Atlanta Hawks at Indiana Pacers

Under 262 (-110)

Two of the NBA's top offenses collide tonight as the Atlanta Hawks have the sixth-best offensive rating while totaling the third-most points per game (PPG), and the Indiana Pacers boast the top offensive rating in the league and lead in PPG. As you probably guessed, this matchup has been given a massive total at 262. This is one of the largest totals I've seen this season.

While both offenses are capable of tearing the roof off of arenas, I'm leaning toward the under. This mostly pertains to just how high this number is. Think about it -- a team would probably have to hit 140 points for the over to hit. This simply would not be a safe bet as the Hawks have reached 140 points in regulation only once over their last 20 games. The Pacers have a much higher percentage of 140-point outings as they have done it 4 times in their previous 16 contests.

November 21st's head-to-head matchup with a final of 157-152 certainly points to the over once again. The total was only 253 in this matchup; that number has jumped by almost 10 points for the second matchup of the season. In the first clash, both teams shot at least 60.0% from the field and 48.0% from three. The chance of this kind of efficiency repeating is unlikely.

Each squad's weak defense also suggests plenty of points as Indiana has the third-worst defensive rating and Atlanta holds the fifth-worst mark. Both perimeter defenses are solid, though. The Hawks give up the 14th-most three-point shots per game (which is around the middle of the standings), and the Pacers feature the Association's best perimeter defense, giving up the fewest three-point shots and makes per contest.

How is this relevant to tonight's clash? Both offenses like to shoot the three. Indiana shoots the seventh-most three-point attempts per game, and Atlanta is averaging the sixth-most.

We could easily see this total eclipse 250. I'm not suggesting that this will be a low-scoring game, but surpassing the 262 total seems like a tall task.

Los Angeles Clippers at New Orleans Pelicans

Clippers Moneyline (-110)

One of the most exciting games of the night is a Western Conference collision between the Los Angeles Clippers and New Orleans Pelicans. These are two of the hottest teams in the West with the Clippers holding an 8-2 record over their last 10 games and the Pelicans going 7-3 over their last 10.

Both teams are in playoff positioning with LA. holding the No. 4 seed and New Orleans carrying the No. 6 seed. This could be a potential playoff preview; the Clips are -1300 to make the postseason while the Pels are -210, per FanDuel's NBA playoff odds.

The game lines also reflect how tight this matchup could be with Los Angeles favored by only one point. Simply picking a moneyline could yield good profit as LA is -110 and New Orleans is -108.

This looks like a pretty even matchup with the Clippers holding the 8th-best offensive rating and 13th-best defense rating. The Pelicans have the 14th-best offensive rating and 7th-best defensive rating. Something has to give; who has the slight advantage?

Los Angeles has been lethal from three-point land, touting the third-best shooting percentage at 38.5%. Their three-point shooting has only improved over the last 10 games, converting 41.5% of their attempts. They are averaging 14.4 made threes per game in the last 10 (12.7 on the season).

New Orleans has one of the worst perimeter defenses in the league, allowing the most attempts per contest. If the Clips are regularly given open looks from beyond the arc, good luck. This could point to big games for some of LA's top shooters, such as Kawhi Leonard (51.4% from three over his last seven games) and Norman Powell (made 7 of 10 threes over last two games). Utilizing the Clippers' three-point shooters paired with the moneyline could be a promising and corollary Same Game Parlay, which could be boosted by FanDuel's 25% Profit Boost for a three-leg NBA Same Game Parlay.

The battle in the paint could also be a key to watch with the Pelicans averaging the ninth-most points in the paint per game while attempting the fourth-fewest threes per contest. Los Angeles has a top-10 paint defense, giving up the 10th-fewest points in the paint per game, and opponents have the 10th-lowest two-point percentage against the Clips.

Ivica Zubac (112.1 defensive rating) and Leonard (110.0 defensive rating) have been excellent defenders in the frontcourt. This could lead to frustrating nights for New Orleans' top scorers Brandon Ingram (22.8 PPG) and Zion Williamson (22.1 PPG), who mostly shoot two-pointers.

Los Angeles could have just enough advantages to sneak out of New Orleans with a win.

Minnesota Timberwolves at Houston Rockets

Timberwolves -3.5 (-108)

If you're a fan of elite defense, the Minnesota Timberwolves against the Houston Rockets is the game to watch, for Minnesota has the best defensive rating in the NBA and Houston touts the fourth-best mark in defensive rating. Both squads are also among the league's top-11 slowest paces. The 218 total -- which is the smallest total of tonight's slate -- is not much of a surprise.

In a low-scoring, defensive clash, the Timberwolves could come out on top with a cover. Only a few weeks ago, the Rockets seemed nearly invincible at home, and they still boast one of the Association's top home records at 14-5. However, most of those losses have come recently. In fact, Houston is 3-4 outright and against the spread (ATS) over their previous seven home games.

After three straight home losses, the Rockets got back in the win column with back-to-back victories against the Detroit Pistons and Brooklyn Nets. Minnesota is a different animal, though -- like a wolf to a sheep. The T-Wolves have tore through the competition and hold the best record in the West at 24-9. Meanwhile, the Pistons have been dreadful at 3-31, and the Nets are on a five-game losing streak.

Ultimately, Minnesota seems to have the more well-rounded defense, which could lead to the cover. Some of Houston's strengths include attempting the 14th-most free throws per game, the 16th-most threes per game, and touting the 14th-best three-point percentage. The Wolves have both categories covered, giving up the seventh-fewest free throw attempts per game and the fourth-fewest three-point shots per contest.

On the other side of the ball, the Rockets have some cracks in their defense. For example, they surrender the 3rd-most free throw shots per contest and the 15th-most three-point shots per game. Minnesota averages the eighth-most free throw shots per game and has the fourth-best three-point percentage.

I believe the best defense will reign supreme tonight with the Timberwolves grabbing the win -- and cover.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.