NBA Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Sunday 1/7/24

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Best Bets

Atlanta Hawks at Orlando Magic

Hawks Team Total Under 120.5 (-120)

This choice was surgically trying to navigate a concerning money split when looking to back the Orlando Magic and the Atlanta Hawks' dreadful defense. It seems like a solid compromise.

The Magic's defense should give Atlanta trouble despite a strength-on-strength matchup. Orlando's 111.3 defensive rating is fifth-best in the NBA, and they're well-equipped to neutralize Atlanta's 119.3 offensive rating (sixth-best in the NBA).

Atlanta exploded in some high profile matchups, but they're fallen short of this total in four of their last six games, facing five bottom-10 defensive ratings in the stretch.

That makes it tough to expect they'll outscore Orlando, but behind their own dreadful 120.6 defensive rating, numberFire's model projects the Magic to win this game 60.0% of the time.

Through conflicting sources, the model also does project just 114.3 points for Atlanta at a median. I think this is the best way to target the thing we know most about this particular dynamic: the Hawks' scoring potential is a bit inflated.

Minnesota Timberwolves at Dallas Mavericks

Karl-Anthony Towns Over 35.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-102)

Outlier positional matchups can be odd to decipher, but this one has continually printed all season even with Grant Williams a solid defender -- in theory -- for the Dallas Mavericks.

Dallas just can't guard power forwards. They allow the fifth-most points, sixth-most rebounds, and fifth-most assists to the position. Any issues with size will only be exacerbated tonight by the largest four in the NBA, Karl-Anthony Towns of the Minnesota Timberwolves.

Towns averages 22.3 points, 10.0 rebounds, and 3.3 assists per 36 minutes in general, and we can anticipate a fairly close game with just a three-point spread.

This matchup should be what pushes him over the edge. Towns has battled 11-for-26 shooting to post 15.5 points, 12.5 rebounds, and 2.5 assists per game against the Mavs this season, so a better night from the floor closer to his 61.8 TS% should do the trick.

Toronto Raptors at Golden State Warriors

Raptors ML (+112)

Heading toward the second half of the season, I'll likely be backing the Toronto Raptors after their trade with the New York Knicks until the market catches up.

In their last 10 games, the Raptors have a +2.5 net rating (12th in the NBA). That's actually better than the Golden State Warriors (+1.5), who will host them tonight with a projected two-point spread.

Golden State's revolving door of injuries took another turn this weekend, losing Chris Paul (hand) but gaining Draymond Green (suspension). That's not been an ideal trade this season. The Dubs' net rating drops 7.5 points with Paul off the floor compared to on, and their net rating is oddly 8.6 points worse with Green on the floor this season. If anything, you still have to downgrade their current situation.

With that the case, it's not surprising but rather perilous to see 74% of the tickets and 76% of the money backing the Warriors at FanDuel Sportsbook. Golden State is 6-12-2 against the spread (ATS) at home this season, and another missed cover likely leads to a Toronto win in this spot.

Los Angeles Clippers at Los Angeles Lakers

Under 232 (-110)

A battle of Los Angeles pits the red-hot Los Angeles Clippers against the ice-cold, rumor-filled Los Angeles Lakers. As I'm prone to do, we'll go contrarian in the nightcap.

These teams shouldn't have a total in the 230s in their current state. The Lakers -- especially -- figure to struggle to score tonight playing in the current floor conditions.

L.A. has a dreadful 110.8 offensive rating since shifting D'Angelo Russell to the bench 10 games ago, and the Clippers won't make life easier. The Clips have a stellar 113.1 defensive rating this season and play at the league's eighth-slowest pace factor.

Defense is also the Lakers' forté with a 113.3 rating, and these teams sure seem to play toward unders at Crypto.com Arena. Inside the building, the 24 of the teams' 36 contests have fallen short of their projected total.

numberFire is expecting just 225.9 total points at a median in this matchup. I'm siding with it.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.