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NBA Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Sunday 1/21/24

Austin Swaim
Austin Swaim•ASwaim3

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NBA Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Sunday 1/21/24

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Best Bets

Brooklyn Nets at Los Angeles Clippers

Nets +10.5 (-112)
Paul George Under 24.5 Points (-115)

The Los Angeles Clippers suffered a huge blow last week -- one that might not be getting enough attention.

They lost Ivica Zubac to a calf injury, and Zubac is massive to L.A.'s defense. They have a 113.8 defensive rating with him on the floor, but it's 116.8 without him. That should allow the Brooklyn Nets to keep things to single digits on Sunday.

Brooklyn is coming off a blowout win over the Los Angeles Lakers, which represented another cover in their underrated season. The Nets are 20-19-2 against the spread (ATS) despite their poor record.

numberFire's model expects Brooklyn to cover 60.3% of the time in this game, so these pick 'em odds are friendly.

If they are able to keep it close, strong wing defense is likely why. They've allowed the eighth-fewest points per game to shooting guards this season (21.5), so while scary coming off Paul George's 38-point eruption against the Oklahoma City Thunder, siding with his under might be the right thing to do. After all, the bevy of mouths to feed in the Clips' offense is an obvious path to failure for any of their studs on a given night.

nF's player projections have George listed for just 22.8 points on Sunday, leaving plenty of wiggle room to this under in a difficult positional matchup.

Miami Heat at Orlando Magic

Magic ML (-104)

These in-state rivals played to a down-to-the-wire affair that was decided in some officiating margins back on January 12th. The Miami Heat beat the Orlando Magic by three points in South Beach, but there's a reason to back Orlando for revenge at home.

These two team's splits significantly favor the Magic in their building. These teams have near-identical net ratings in a vacuum, but Orlando has a +6.2 net rating at home to Miami's +0.4 net rating on the road. Plus, the Heat are already without Jaime Jaquez Jr. in this one -- though that difference could be offset if Franz Wagner (ankle) can't go through a questionable listing himself.

Nonetheless, most key parties should be ready to go for this rematch, and Orlando seems to have an advantage given they'll be playing in front of their fans. numberFire's model agrees, assessing a 58.5% likelihood that the Magic win as slight underdogs.

Denver Nuggets at Washington Wizards

Wizards +13.5 (-110)

It really doesn't get much more ugly value betting the NBA than this.

The Denver Nuggets are seemingly on top of the world after besting the vaunted Boston Celtics on their home floor, and the Washington Wizards have lost three straight amidst a dreadful season. Getting a boatload of points, there's no doubt we should be taking Washington in this spot, though.

Denver is 8-14 against the spread (ATS) on the road this year when away from their absurd homecourt edge at altitude. They've got just a +0.2 net rating away from Ball Arena, too. The Wizards are a bad team at home (-9.6 net rating) and everywhere else, but a league-average road team shouldn't be laying this many.

The second-most confident side (not total) in numberFire's model today is backing the Wiz in D.C., expecting them to cover at a 59.3% clip.

I've ostensibly blindly bet against the road Nuggets all season to good results, so this gnarly line has to make my card despite its obvious drawbacks.

Indiana Pacers at Phoenix Suns

Bradley Beal Over 1.5 Threes (+105)
Myles Turner Over 15.5 Points (-120)

With a game total of 248.0 points, we're expecting a shootout in "The Valley". numberFire actually sides with the under, but this is still a fruitful spot to turn toward for a couple of player props.

Bradley Beal's decline to this sort of betting line for a pair of triples has been nothing short of remarkable, but I'm taking the over. After all, Beal has canned at least 1.5 triples per game in every one of his 12 NBA seasons -- including this one (1.5). In tougher matchups, I'd have more reservations, but the Indiana Pacers' 122.2 defensive rating on the road is third-worst in the NBA.

numberFire has the Phoenix Suns shooting guard projected for 1.7 triples on Sunday. I definitely think it's the side in a potential shootout when Beal has, at large, hit 13 treys in his last four games.

The Pacers are a bit dicier because of the newly acquired Pascal Siakam just one game into his Indiana tenure, but I do believe this line is too low for Myles Turner from what we saw on Friday. Turner still had the team's high in shots (17), three-point attempts (10), and usage rate (22.6%) in that one, which resulted in a 29-point outing that I wouldn't expect to return.

The opposing starting center has topped 16 points in eight of Phoenix's last nine games (with the exception hilariously being Anthony Davis), so this doesn't seem to be too difficult of a spot for him. Like Beal, Turner is also showing value in numberFire's model at 16.2 projected points.


Looking for the latest NBA odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the NBA betting options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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