NBA Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Friday 12/15/23
The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.
However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.
While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?
Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.
Indiana Pacers at Washington Wizards
Pacers -8.5 (-110)
A season-opener matchup between the Washington Wizards (3-20) and Indiana Pacers (13-9) resulted in a 23-point Indiana win, and I think the Pacers are primed to cover the spread once again.
The Wizards have lost three straight games by 20 or more points. They have the second-worst net rating in the league, while the Pacers have the 11th-best. Though Indiana's third-worst defensive rating is concerning, it's a product of their ultra-fast style of play, and they'll go up against a Washington team that suffers with the worst defensive rating in the league.
Twelve of Washington's 20 losses have been by nine points or more. They are 3-7 against this spread versus teams that rank in the top 12 of net rating, and they're 3-9 against this spread versus teams in the top 12 of offensive rating (the Pacers have the league-best offensive rating).
The game total for this matchup sits at an astonishing 260.0 points, giving Indiana a 134.5 implied team total. The Wizards have given up 134-plus points on seven occasions this season -- they lost all these contests by an average margin of 23.7 points.
Aaron Nesmith Over 11.5 Points (+104)
In a game that is sure to be high-scoring and imposes some blowout risk, we should look to Indiana's bench to overperform tonight. The Wizards give up 51.6 bench points per game (most), so I think Aaron Nesmith is set up to score 12-plus points.
Nesmith has cleared this prop in three straight games. In 13 games where the Pacers have scored at least 125 points, Nesmith is averaging 13.2 points. Indiana has reached their implied team total without the hook (134.0) in five games this season, and Nesmith is averaging 17.0 points per game across that span.
Unfortunately, Nesmith is a foul-trouble candidate. He's been called for five-plus fouls in six games this season. But the Wizards are drawing the fourth-fewest fouls per game, so Nesmith's foul tendencies won't steer me away from the plus odds here.
Orlando Magic at Boston Celtics
Under 224.5 Points (-110)
At the risk of going against the grain of a Friday night game at TD Garden, which are typically fast-paced, high-scoring affairs, I think this Orlando Magic-Boston Celtics stays under tonight.
Both of these teams give up 108.9 points per game (tied for third-fewest). The Magic have the third-best defensive rating in the league while the Celtics sit a spot behind them with the fourth-best.
Boston shoots the most three-point attempts (3PA) at 42.7 per game, and in turn, allows opposing teams to shoot the seventh-most three-balls (37.3) each night. But Orlando won't put up with that. The Magic shoot the fewest 3PA per game and allow opposing teams to shoot the sixth-fewest 3PA per game.
If the Magic can force the Celtics out of 3PA-heavy style of play, the pace will slow down and this game should trend towards the under. In a November matchup, the Magic limited the Celtics to just 29 3PA, leading to a modest 209.0 game total.
Jayson Tatum Under 9.5 Rebounds (-104)
Jayson Tatum is averaging a career-high 8.9 rebounds per game for the Boston Celtics, but I don't expect the Magic to allow Tatum above-average rebounding numbers tonight.
Orlando gives up the fewest rebounds per game. But they don't rank in the top five of fewest rebounds allowed to a given position, except to small forwards.
The Magic are allowing fewer boards to small forwards than any other team in the league, which is probably why Tatum has gone 12 straight games against the Magic without grabbing 10-plus boards. He secured only five rebounds when these teams met up last month, and in his career is averaging just 6.5 rebounds versus the Magic.
New York Knicks at Phoenix Suns
Julius Randle Over 24.5 Points (-106)
The Phoenix Suns have a shoddy paint defense, giving up the ninth-most points per game from this area. Julius Randle is scoring 10.9 paint points per game (most on New York Knicks) and managed 28.0 points against this Suns team just a few weeks ago.
With Mitchell Robinson now out for extended time, Randle has more responsibility down low, and he's using those opportunities to score. In Randle's last two games, which was the start of this new Robinson-less team, he is averaging 33.0 points (34- and 32-point performances).
Randle averaged 25.9 points in 22 games without Robinson last season, and I like this matchup against the Suns.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.