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NBA Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Christmas Day

Brandon Gdula
Brandon Gdula•@gdula13

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NBA Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Christmas Day

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Best Bets on Christmas Day

Milwaukee Bucks at New York Knicks

Under 240.5 (-108)

Khris Middleton Over 4.5 Rebounds (-108)

The Christmas Day slate kicks off in New York with the Milwaukee Bucks facing the New York Knicks.

This is a rematch of a game played on Saturday afternoon.

In that game, the Bucks won 130-111 despite 36 points from Jalen Brunson.

Milwaukee has now beaten the Knicks 110-105, 146-122, and 130-111 to move to 3-0 in the season series.

The Bucks have played a league-low 11 road games and are 6-5 in them, yet that didn't hold them back from getting the best of the Knicks on Saturday.

My model, which accounts for active rosters and reduces the impact of garbage time, anticipates 236.4 total points, so I'm in on the under primarily here.

numberFire's model also likes this game to stay under the total.

Khris Middleton has averaged 4.8 rebounds per game on the season but 6.5 per game against the Knicks.

Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets

Michael Porter Jr. Over 15.5 Points (-118)

The Denver Nuggets welcome the Warriors in the second game on Christmas Day.

Denver holds an 11-2 home record with a hefty +11.6 net rating and a robust 119.9 points per game average.

The Golden State Warriors are just 6-8 on the road despite a +1.4 net rating.

I initially liked the Nuggets' spread, but it has since grown to -6.5.

Michael Porter Jr. has averaged 16.3 points per game this season, and the Warriors are just a mid-tier defense overall in road matchups.

Porter Jr. has scored better in similar matchups. Against teams ranked 11th to 20th in defensive rating, he's putting up 18.8 points per game on a hefty 15.5 shot attempts per game.

Boston Celtics at Los Angeles Lakers

Under 234.5 (-110)

Anthony Davis Under 26.5 Points (-125)

The Boston Celtics travel to face the Lakers in the midpoint game on the docket for Christmas Day. They played the Clippers on Saturday (winning big), so the travel part itself won't be a concern here.

The Los Angeles Lakers are 10-3 at home in the regular season on the strength of a +8.6 net rating and a top-three home defensive rating (103.9). Only 21.4% of their 14 total home games went over so far (3-11 in terms of the over).

My model likes the under here again for a Lakers game.

In conjunction with a game under, Anthony Davis may have a hard time scoring if there aren't a lot of points to go around. He's averaged 24.9 points per game against top-10 defenses.

Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat

Philadelphia 76ers -1.5 (-110)

Tyrese Maxey Over 3.5 Three-Pointers Made (+100)

The Philadelphia 76ers bring an 8-4 road record to Miami on Christmas Day against a Miami Heat squad about to hit the road later this week for a five-game road trip.

The 76ers and Heat haven't met yet this year.

My model is into the 76ers here to cover on the road, and we've seen the spread reverse into their favor.

I always like looking at three-pointer props against teams like the Heat, who allow a high three-point rate (41.9%, fifth-highest).

Tyrese Maxey has averaged 3.3 makes this season but 4.0 against teams in the top 10 in three-point rate allowed.

Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns

Phoenix Suns Moneyline (-194)

The Christmas Day slate culminates with a matchup between the Dallas Mavericks and Phoenix Suns.

Phoenix is only 7-8 in home games with a +0.9 net rating. Their offense is fairly middling (119.0 offensive rating, 11th-best) in that split, as well.

Given the Mavericks' injury status, the spread makes sense, but the preferred route for me is just taking the Suns' moneyline.

Dallas' 9-6 road record is actually tied to a -1.1 net rating, so their away record is a bit inflated.


Looking for the latest NBA odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the NBA betting options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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