NBA Betting: 5 Rebounding Averages to Target for the 2023-24 Season
One of the big talking points of the NBA offseason is projecting which players are poised for exceptional or disappointing seasons. Who could break out with career-best seasons? Which players are past their prime and could be on the decline?
With the NBA regular season tipping off on October 24, it's time to call our shots.
FanDuel Sportsbook is offering various NBA player stats odds for the 2023-24 season. This includes anything from the points-per-game leader for the 2023-24 season to player-specific props -- such as if a player will average 24.0 points per game (PPG) or 8.0 assists per game (APG).
Let's dig into the lines for player stats for the 2023-24 campaign, focusing today on five rebounding average bets.
Mitchell Robinson to Average 10+ Rebounds Per Game (+105)
Advanced stats are not as readily available for rebounding when compared to scoring totals, but several available stats still give us an inside look at players crashing the glass. For example, contested rebounds per game and adjusted rebounding chance percentage are valuable stats that can potentially give us an advantage when selecting NBA lines. Which players are consistently grabbing boards in traffic? Are they getting plenty of rebounding opportunities?
Mitchell Robinson is the first big man that could be worth a bet. He recorded a career-high 9.4 rebounds per game (RPG) last season, ranked third in contested rebounds per game and finished second in contested rebounding percentage. Plus, Robinson has been one of basketball's best offensive rebounders since the 2021-22 season. In fact, the New York Knicks' center finished third in offensive rebounds per game in 2021-22 and second in the category last season.
Robinson continued to prove his rebounding prowess by averaging 9.3 RPG over 11 games in the 2023 playoffs. After increasing his rebounding average for five consecutive seasons, I like Mitchell improving his total yet again, reaching the 10.0 mark.
Jalen Duren to Average 11+ Rebounds Per Game (+190)
Jalen Duren impressed during his rookie season as he steadily carved out an increased role on the Detroit Pistons. After averaging 8.9 RPG while starting in only 31 of 67 games last season, Duren is expected to be the full-time starting center. A significant boost in minutes played seems imminent, which makes reaching 11.0 RPG a reasonable goal.
His strength was on full display throughout the 2022-23 season. Duren was 19 for most of the season. Heck, he was even 18 in his first 13 appearances. He didn't look 19 though with his 6-foot-10, 250-pound frame. Duren displayed his physicality paired with his talent for "see ball, get ball."
Several opposing players commented on Duren's strength throughout the season. Paul George was one player who gave glowing reviews:
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This should not be taken lightly; George compared Duren to one of the best centers of this generation. The sky is the limit.
I believe Duren will further tap into his potential in the upcoming season. He ranked 13th with 4.2 contested rebounds per game. Keep in mind he had far fewer minutes than some of the leaders in this category -- such as Jarrett Allen and Domantas Sabonis. Duren is poised for a monster season on the boards.
Walker Kessler to Average 11+ Rebounds Per Game (-125)
Walker Kessler is another second-year center who is stepping into a larger role in the 2023-24 season. He earned All-Rookie honors after averaging 9.2 points per game (PPG), 8.4 RPG, and 2.3 blocks per game. Kessler did so while starting in only 40 of 74 games, averaging 23.0 minutes per game.
The former first-round pick steadily saw his role increase late in the 2022-23 season, as Kessler recorded at least 30.0 minutes in 14 of his final 22 games. Kessler could approach 30.0 minutes per game in the upcoming season, meaning we should see a boost to his rebounding total. Last season, Kessler ranked 12th in contested rebounds per game while averaging the fewest minutes per game among the top 12.
The Utah Jazz will also likely look to play Kessler more often due to his elite shot-blocking. He ranked second in blocks per minute last season, making him an intriguing bet for leading the NBA in blocks per game. According to FanDuel's NBA odds, Kessler has the second-shortest odds to lead the league in blocks per game (+330).
Anthony Davis to Average 12+ Rebounds Per Game (-190)
The Los Angeles Lakers finished second in defensive rebounds per game in the 2022-23 season. Anthony Davis played a vital role, corralling 12.5 boards per contest. This was a career-high for Davis and his highest mark since the 2018-19 season.
Davis has been one of the league's elite rebounders for years; he has averaged at least 10.0 RPG in 7 of the last 10 seasons. Following a career-best mark, look for Davis to hit the 12.0 RPG mark once again.
With LeBron James turning 39 in December, Davis' role will likely increase. He is even landing in some MVP conversations, priced at +3000 when looking at FanDuel's NBA award odds.
After leading the NBA in contested rebounds per game last season, Davis seems poised for another great season on the glass.
Giannis Antetokounmpo to Average 12+ Rebounds Per Game (+110)
Giannis Antetokounmpo is a stat-sheet-stuffer, averaging at least 28.1 PPG, 11.0 RPG, and 5.6 assists per game (APG) in four consecutive seasons. The Greek Freak has only reached 12.0 RPG twice in his career -- the 2018-19 and 2019-20 seasons. Can Antetokounmpo reach 12.0 RPG once again?
The +110 line makes this an enticing bet, especially when we have already seen Antetokounmpo pull off the feat. However, we must have legitimate evidence to back the bet.
Fortunately, Antetokounmpo has the numbers to provide comfort. That's not a surprise, though; the Greek Freak has averaged double-digit rebounds for six consecutive seasons after all. In the 2022-23 season, Antetokounmpo ranked 6th in rebound chances per game and 25th in contested rebounds per game.
The Milwaukee Bucks still have a need for pounding the glass too. Giannis had led the team in RPG for seven consecutive seasons, and Bobby Portis is the only teammate to average over 6.7 RPG in the last five seasons. Expect the Bucks heavily rely on the Greek Freak's rebounding. Look for Antetokounmpo to continue to stack rebounds, aiding his MVP hopes.
Do you think you know which NBA players are poised for an impressive 2023-24 season? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA player stats odds market to bet season-long player stats with America's Number One Sportsbook. Be sure to check out other basketball betting options, as well.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.