National League Cy Young Odds: Spencer Strider, Zac Gallen in Two-Horse Race

We're well into the MLB season at this point, and some things are starting to take shape. This includes the betting odds for the major awards.

Today, let's look at the National League Cy Young odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Right now, five pitchers have shorter than +2000 odds to win the award. Let's dig into each of the five.

Spencer Strider, SP, Atlanta Braves

This is only the second season in the big leagues for Spencer Strider, but he's already established himself as one of the best power pitchers in the majors. So far this season, he's doing things we rarely see.

Strider's strikeout rate is a stunning 40.3%. The only qualified starting pitcher to finish a season with a K-rate above 40% is Shane Bieber in the short 2020 season. If Strider could maintain this, it would be a phenomenal accomplishment.

Strider also leads the National League in expected fielding independent pitching (xFIP), which is a good indicator of how dominant he's been. Both his walk rate and home run rate are a tad high, so if he can lower those a bit, he has a strong case to win this award given his unreal numbers and ace status for one of baseball's best teams.

Zac Gallen, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks

Zac Gallen is not posting the same gaudy strikeout numbers as Strider, but he's having a nice season for himself. The Arizona Diamondbacks are contending in the NL West, and he's a big reason why.

Gallen has the lowest FIP in the NL by 0.36. His strikeout rate is a respectable 27.0% and his walk rate is the fifth-best in the league.

There are some numbers that suggest Gallen could regress. He's allowing the highest exit velocity of his career as well as the highest percentage of fly balls he's permitted. As such, his expected FIP (xFIP) is 0.85 higher than his actual FIP.

Gallen is not having as sexy of a season as Strider, but maintaining these numbers could help Gallen be a candidate -- especially if Strider was to fall off his pace. His current 7-2 win-loss record doesn't hurt his case if that's something the voters will take into consideration. He will certainly need to start getting more soft ground-balls to fight off the regression monster.

Clayton Kershaw, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers

While Strider and Gallen are newcomers are the Cy Young scene, Clayton Kershaw certainly isn't. He's won the award three times and finished runner-up on two other occasions. He hasn't come close to winning the award since 2017, but that could change this campaign.

Kershaw's 30.3% strikeout rate is his best since 2016. His FIP is seventh among qualified NL starters. This is certainly a good résumé but maybe not quite a Cy Young-award-winning one -- especially considering the competition he's up against.

The important thing to remember when considering wagering on awards is that the voters are human. Kershaw has name recognition and plays on a marquee team in the league. Sometimes voters like to award older players with something of a lifetime achievement award. Kershaw could have that going for him, and he may need something like that to win because his numbers aren't on the level of Strider's.

Mitch Keller, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates

Mitch Keller and the Pittsburgh Pirates are in first place in the NL Central. Keller was not thought of as one of the best pitchers in the NL heading into the season, but he's done a lot to change that narrative.

Keller has seen his strikeout rate greatly improve -- from 20.1% last season to 28.2% this season. He's also cut down on walks, offering a free pass to just 6.4% of batters. That strikeout rate and his 3.26 FIP both rank fifth-best in the NL.

He's having the best season of his career, but right now it's hard to make the case that Keller has been the best pitcher in the NL. A bet on him requires confidence that he will keep up his current career-best pace while the other favorites start to struggle.

Logan Webb, SP, San Francisco Giants

There didn't seem to be much promise for Logan Webb after his first two seasons in the majors. That all changed in 2021, and he's continued to impress this season.

Webb has the lowest walk rate of qualified National League starters. He also has the third-lowest xFIP and third-lowest skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) in the league -- behind only Strider and Kershaw.

It's interesting that Webb has actually been getting hit harder than ever before this year. His average exit velocity is a career-high 90 MPH. He's also allowed hitters to barrel the ball at a 9.1% clip. Before this season, the highest barrel percentage he permitted was 5.7%.

Getting +1200 on a solid pitcher like Webb is intriguing, but there are also some reasons to steer clear when you consider the competition he's up against for this award.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.