NASCAR Xfinity Series Win Simulations: Shriners Children's 200 at The Glen

For the second straight week, we've got a loaded field for a road-course race in the Xfinity Series.

There's no A.J. Allmendinger this time around; it's no consolation, though, that his replacement in the Kaulig Racing 10 car has a very chill 102 career Xfinity wins, Kyle Busch.

He's joined by last week's winner, Ty Gibbs, and Alex Bowman, who finished fifth in last week's Cup Series race at the Indianapolis road course.

Thus, once again, if you want to win, you're going to have to earn it.

In looking at my Xfinity Series simulations, I think they're a bit too light on Busch and Gibbs, specifically. But I also understand why they're not super, super high due to the quality of the field and the fact that Xfinity road-course races can have pretty high incident rates.

With that caveat in mind, here's how the field breaks down by my numbers prior to practice and qualifying.

It's basically a toss-up at the top between Busch and Gibbs. Neither is above their implied NASCAR Xfinity Series betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, so we'll want to account for the possibility that they're undervalued in the sims while looking elsewhere.

The biggest value relative to the market is Austin Hill (+2200 at FanDuel). Hill has proven to be a strong road racer, notching 7 top-5s in 12 road-course races as a full-time Xfinity Series driver. That includes a fourth-place run last week.

The question around Hill is whether he truly has the upside to beat a group like this. I think he does. He finished runner-up at COTA last year in a field that included both Allmendinger and Gibbs, and he was fourth that year at Road America while competing with those two plus Kyle Larson and Tyler Reddick. He's in the hunt even when the field is tougher; he just needs a bit of chaos to break his way.

The implied odds at +2200 are 4.3%. My model has Hill at 7.7%. We do have to adjust that down with Gibbs and Busch likely undervalued, but I think there's enough wiggle room to still view Hill as a value relative to the market.

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