NASCAR Xfinity Series Win Simulations: Road America 180

A.J. Allmendinger is a full-time NASCAR Cup Series driver. With the Cup Series in Richmond, he could stay there, practice and qualify his car, and keep pushing for one of the final playoff spots.

Instead, he is staring me straight in the eyes and giving me double-barreled middle fingers.

Allmendinger is running double duty this week, competing in the Xfinity Series race in Road America before flying to Richmond later for Sunday's Cup Series race. This means he'll start that race in the back due to a driver change -- but it's apparently a tradeoff he's willing to make.

This is a headache for me. My model has typically had a hard time keeping up with Allmendinger, who has won six of the past nine road-course races he has run in the Xfinity Series.

Lucky for me, with the Cup Series elsewhere, Allmendinger's competition at the top is lighter. This makes it much easier to be in line with the market on him, which is a true blessing.

That's largely what we get this week. FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds for Road America have Allmendinger at even money to win; my model has him at 49.4%. We're nearly identical. So while I can't bet Allmendinger at that mark, I can at least have faith in any value that may arise elsewhere.

Let's see who pops most behind Allmendinger by looking at the pre-practice simulations for Road America. If a row has "Base" in it, that means that team has not yet announced its driver for the race, and the number in there is a baseline for that equipment.

Given the lack of skilled road racers behind Allmendinger, there's no clear consensus on who should rank second. My model is highest on Justin Allgaier and Austin Hill.

Allgaier is a three-time road-course winner in the Xfinity Series, but all of those wins came before the 2019 season. Since then, he has had plenty of top-fives but no wins to show for it.

Part of that is competition. He has dealt with Austin Cindric and Ty Gibbs, both of whom have since graduated to the Cup Series and -- unlike Allmendinger -- won't race this weekend. Allgaier has three top-fives in four road-course races this year and was seventh in the other.

It's a similar setup for Hill. In nine road-course races as an Xfinity Series regular, he has five top-five finishes but no wins. Against a lower level of competition, it's easier to envision him capturing the flag.

Allgaier is +1200 at FanDuel while Hill is +1600. I think either is defensible to win, but you are likely depending on some sort of slip from Allmendinger for them to break through. They may be the top targets for non-outright markets in the field as a result.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.