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FanDuel Sportsbook Promos NASCAR Xfinity Series Win Simulations: Pocono 225
Throughout most of this year, my NASCAR Xfinity Series win simulation model has viewed one team has being undervalued by the market.
Pocono is no different. Once again, it has Kaulig Racing firmly in its crosshairs.
Most of the time, when a model is consistently off from the market, it's going to lead you down a bad path. But Kaulig has won 3 of 18 races thus far, and they've generally been in contention for podiums and top-fives in the others.
So, when Kaulig pops, I'm inclined to buy what the model is saying. And that's the case again this weekend.
Here's the full list of pre-practice simulations for the Pocono 225.
Driver | Win Odds | Podium | Top 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Hunter Nemechek | 18.9% | 44.9% | 61.9% |
| Chase Elliott | 15.6% | 40.1% | 56.6% |
| Daniel Suarez | 12.4% | 34.7% | 53.0% |
| Chandler Smith | 9.8% | 27.3% | 45.0% |
| Justin Allgaier | 9.2% | 28.4% | 45.7% |
| Austin Hill | 5.9% | 19.5% | 34.1% |
| Cole Custer | 4.4% | 15.2% | 27.5% |
If you look at FanDuel Sportsbook's Xfinity Series betting odds, you'll see Daniel Suarez and Chandler Smith at +1200 and +1600, respectively. The implied odds there are 7.7% and 5.9%. My model has them a decent chunk above that.
Pocono has long been a plus track for Suarez. He finished third here in the Cup Series last year, and he was runner-up in his second season with Joe Gibbs Racing. With Suarez making gains as a driver the past few years, it's easy to understand why the model would view him favorably.
As for Smith, he won Pocono last year in the Craftsman Truck Series, and he has shown great pace on the high-speed tracks in Xfinity. He had a second-place average running position in Charlotte and a fourth-place mark in Nashville, another place with flat, sweeping turns.
It's definitely a tall task with Chase Elliott also in the field and John Hunter Nemechek in the middle of a heater. But Kaulig's top-end speed is underrated, and they seem like a team to watch out for once the green flag drops.
The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.
