NASCAR Xfinity Series Win Simulations: Drive for the Cure 250

There are a lot of unknowns entering Saturday's NASCAR Xfinity Series Drive for the Cure 250 in Charlotte.

First, cautions for stage breaks are back, meaning there will be a known stoppage during the race. That can alter strategy for drivers opting for stage points rather than gunning for a win.

That component is amplified with Charlotte being the final race in the opening round of the Xfinity Series playoffs. John Hunter Nemechek and Justin Allgaier have already advanced with wins, and Sam Mayer and Josh Berry are in must-win spots due to the hole they are in. Other drivers are likely to prioritize stage points in order to bolster their standing.

Granted, this is less of an issue in the Xfinity Series than in Cup with this likely being a one-stop race. But it's still a consideration.

Finally, there is no runaway favorite in the field. AJ Allmendinger has won the past four races here. Ty Gibbs was a threat, and Noah Gragson and Austin Cindric both have three top-fives in four races. None of them will race on Saturday.

So, it's a pretty wide open event. And it leads to the win equity being spread out in my simulations prior to practice and qualifying.

Allgaier is the favorite, which makes sense given his playoff situation. But I'm still way below market on Allgaier, whose NASCAR Xfinity Series betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook are +300.

This opens up equity elsewhere, primarily among the next three guys in the sims: Sheldon Creed, Austin Hill, and Jordan Taylor. Creed is just nine points above the playoff cutline, so he'll be inclined to points race. I'm fine bumping him down a bit as a result. But both Hill and Taylor are intriguing.

Hill is 44 points above the cutline, so he's in as long as nothing catastrophic happens. He's also a good road-racer, posting seven top-fives in 13 Xfinity road-course races since the start of last year. He hasn't won yet, but with no true studs in the field, I agree with the model that he's a value at +1000.

Taylor doesn't have to worry about the playoffs because neither he nor his team are in them. On the flip side, though, this will be just Taylor's third race in NASCAR's top three series, and his first two resulted in finishes of 24th and 27th.

Those finishes are deceptive. Taylor qualified well in his Cup Series start at COTA, and he had an 18th-place average running position. While running for the same Kaulig Racing team he'll drive for this week at Portland, he had an eighth-place average running position. He clearly has speed, as illustrated by his three IMSA road-racing championships.

If Allmendinger or Gibbs were in the field, I might be more hesitant with Taylor. But he's likely the best pure road-racer here, so +1300 isn't all that outlandish.

Finally, the sims do show value in a longshot: Brett Moffitt at +8000. He's 3.4% in the sims versus 1.2% implied at that number.

Moffitt finished fourth in the Chicago street race this year, and he was seventh at COTA last year. He won a Craftsman Truck Series race at Bowmanville in 2019 to go with two other Truck Series podiums on road courses. He can get it done on this track type.

Moffitt is another guy not in the playoffs, and he's trying to lock down a job for next year. Longshots are longshots for a reason, but I do understand why the model is keen on him here.

Have a driver you want to bet for Saturday's race? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NASCAR Xfinity Series betting odds to see where their odds stand.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.