NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series Win Simluations: TSport 200

There aren't many better ways to start a weekend than with tonight's NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series race.

Not only is the TSport 200 the start of the playoffs, but it's at Lucas Oil Indianapolis Raceway Park. The series returned there last year after a decade-long hiatus, and the track still brought the action.

IRP is a short, flat track that features massive tire degradation. It checks a lot of similar boxes to Richmond, which is where the Truck Series ran its most recent race. As a result, you'll see a lot of names toward the top of the win simulations who ran well there.

Here's the full rundown of the simulations based on my model prior to practice and qualifying.

I, personally, think the sims are a hair too low on Ty Majeski, which is why I'm not necessarily leaping to buy into Corey Heim even though my model has him above his implied odds of 22.2% to win, based on FanDuel Sportsbook's Truck Series betting odds for the race.

The biggest value by the model is actually a non-playoff driver in Tanner Gray. Gray is +10000 to win at FanDuel, putting his implied win odds at 1.0%. The model has him at 3.3%. He's a longshot for a reason, and even if the model's right, he'd still lose the race 96.7% of the time. But I understand why the model is high on him.

Gray has just three top-fives this year. But two of them came at Martinsville (another short, flat track) and Darlington (a track with massive tire falloff), meaning there's some overlap with IRP. In the Martinsville race, specifically, he had a fourth-place average running position, meaning he didn't luck into the finish.

Last year at IRP, Tanner's brother, Taylor, made a lot of noise. The hope here would be that he can pass on some wisdom to his big brother and help him pull off a big upset to open the stretch run of the season.

Have a driver you want to bet in tonight's race? Check out the full Craftsman Truck Series betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook and see which drivers stand out to you.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.