NASCAR Betting Picks: Iowa Corn 350

For the first time ever, the NASCAR Cup Series is headed to Iowa Speedway.

This is a track a good chunk of the drivers have driven as it was on the NASCAR Xfinity and Craftsman Truck Series schedules up until 2019. A lot of those guys had success here, too, as 9 of the past 11 Xfinity Series winners at the track (along with 4 of the past 6 in the Truck Series) are in the Cup field for Sunday.

But, there are two key differences. First, this is the first time they'll run here in a Cup car, which is very different from what they were driving in the lower series five years ago. Second, parts of Iowa Speedway were repaved this spring, meaning it'll run different than it did back then, as well.

That's likely why sportsbooks are bumping up drivers who tested at this track last month. The two favorites in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds -- Christopher Bell (+400) and Kyle Larson (+550) -- took part in that test, as did Brad Keselowski (+1200). We've seen drivers who have done tests benefit when the series has gone to those tracks, so I get it. But the bump went too far on them.

Instead, I'm seeing value elsewhere. Let's dig into what those initial values are, and then we can circle back later in the week if more outlets arise.

Iowa Speedway Betting Picks

Ross Chastain to Win (+2800)

(UPDATE: Chastain has since shortened to +1800 to win. My model has bumped him to 7.6% after impressive practice times, so he's still a value above his new implied odds of 5.3%. I also have good value on Chastain +500 to podium, +230 to finish top 5, and -140 to finish top 10.)

Few drivers have more experience at Iowa than Ross Chastain. Between the Xfinity and Truck Series, he has run here 14 times. And he did cross the finish line first in one of those -- even if it wasn't technically a win.

That came in 2019, the most recent Truck race at the track. There, Chastain led 141 of 200 laps and took the checkered flag. But Chastain's truck was disqualified in post-race inspection, stripping him of the victory.

That race was the second time Chastain had led 100-plus laps at the track, and he had a pair of top-five runs in Xfinity with JD Motorsports. Given Chastain was running for generally under-funded teams (other than a stint with Brad Keselowski Racing), his performance here was really impressive.

Chastain will get to add to that experience on Saturday. He's one of only two full-time Cup drivers in the Xfinity Series field, meaning he'll get extra experience on the repaved surface before Sunday's Cup green flag. You could argue Chastain will have a better knowledge bank for this track than even those who were at the test.

Most of those intangibles aren't included in my betting model. Even still, I have Chastain as a value, sitting at 4.6% to win, up from 3.5% implied. The form for Chastain and Trackhouse Racing is far from perfect, but I am on board with Chastain at this discounted price.

Martin Truex Jr. to Finish Top 5 (+150)

(UPDATE: Truex has since lengthened to +230 to finish top 5. He was brutal in both practice and qualifying, so even at the lengthened number, he is no longer a value for me. Big whiff.)

Martin Truex Jr. is one of the few drivers who hasn't yet run Iowa in one of the upper series. So, he'll be coming in at a bit of a disadvantage.

I do still think he's undervalued here, though.

Iowa is a short, flat track, which has been Truex's best track type in his latter years. He dominated New Hampshire last year, his eighth victory at one of the Cup Series' short, flat tracks. That has translated to this year, too, as he had a third-place average running position in Richmond this spring.

Without considering the external factors, I have Truex at 47.0% to finish top 5. It's fair to ding him a bit due to a lack of experience, but I think even doing that would likely still keep him as a value at just 40.0% implied.

Bubba Wallace to Finish Top 10 (+170)

(UPDATE: Wallace has since shortened to +165 to finish top 10. My model still has him at 49.7%, so he's well clear of his new 37.7% implied odds. I also have value on Wallace to win at +4400 and finish top five at +550.)

Bubba Wallace is similar to Chastain: he doesn't have an official Iowa win, but he has lots of experience here. When you combine that with his improving form on short, flat tracks, I think we should be inclined to buy in.

Wallace ran this track nine times in the lower series. He racked up six top-10s in that time, and in one of the exceptions, he won the pole and led 41 laps.

In the Next-Gen era, Wallace has shown that he can flash upside at short, flat tracks. He has finished top-10 in both New Hampshire races, and he has a top-eight average running position in four straight races at one of Martinsville, Richmond, or Phoenix.

Thanks to that surge, my model is high on Wallace across the board. I've got a decent amount of value on him to win at +4600 and finish top five at +550. I'm receptive to adding those later.

For now, I'd like to stick with the biggest value, which is in the top-10 market. There, I have Wallace at 50.9%, well clear of his 37.0% implied odds. I agree with the model here that Wallace is a worthy target for this race.

Erik Jones to Finish Top 10 (+600)

(UPDATE: Jones has since lengthened to +700. However, similar to Truex, Jones was very slow both Friday and Saturday. Thus, I'd avoid adding him, even at the lengthened number.)

It's now a long time ago, but there was a stretch where Erik Jones was the guy to beat in Iowa. He won back-to-back Truck Series races here, graduated to the Xfinity Series, and won the second race that year.

His form on short, flat tracks is underwhelming, but I do think he's worth a look at such forgiving odds.

In the Next-Gen era, Jones has run 20 races on short, flat tracks (lumping Gateway into the sample even though it's not technically a short track). He has just one top-10 in that span, making it hard to justify buying at 14.3% implied odds.

But Jones has had better speed than that. He had a 10th-place average running position in the Championship Race at Phoenix last year, and he finished top-15 in both Martinsville and Richmond this year. The hope is that Legacy MC is finding speed as they get more acclimated in their first year with Toyota.

My model isn't overly high on Jones. It has his top-10 odds at 19.0%, the 21st-highest odds in the field. But that's still above the market, and given Jones' history in Iowa, it's enough for me to bite.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Chase Briscoe to Win (+4800)

(UPDATE: Briscoe has since shortened to +3000, putting his implied odds at 3.2%. As mentioned below, I have him at 4.2%, so there is still value in Briscoe to win. I also have a bit of value him him +380 to finish top five and +105 to finish top 10.)

Non-outrights aren't back up yet at FanDuel, and when they are, I'd suspect Chase Briscoe will be a value. But I do think he's worth sniffing as a longshot winner.

Briscoe had good speed Friday and Saturday. He was 10th in single-lap speed in practice, third in five-lap average, and sixth in 10-lap average. He backed that up with a sixth-place qualifying run on Saturday.

Short, flat tracks have always been a forte for Briscoe in the Cup Series. He won Phoenix in 2022 and has nine additional top-10s in a 17-race sample. This year, specifically, he has been more okay than stellar, but he did still finish top-10 in both Phoenix and Martinsville.

With Stewart-Haas Racing closing its doors after this year, Briscoe is auditioning for a job. He has been mentioned as a potential replacement for the retiring Truex at Joe Gibbs Racing, so the industry believes in his talent, and he's got motivation to validate those feelings. My model has Briscoe at 4.2% to win, up from 2.0% implied.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Bubba Wallace to Finish Top 5 (+550)

It's fair if you want to stand pat on Wallace if you bet him +170 to finish top 10 earlier in the week. But the value in this market is really tough for me to pass up.

I've got Wallace at 25.9% to finish top 5, up from 15.4% implied. He's also a value to win at +4400, but with Briscoe and Chastain already on the card, I'm hesitant to add another longshot. That's what makes this my preferred market for Wallace.

Wallace will roll off from the 16th spot. His practice times were more fine than anything, but he did rank 10th in 10-lap average. He didn't do anything to lower himself in the eyes of the model, but his odds did lengthen.

This is truly a pick-your-poison spot. If there's a Wallace market, it's probably a value for me. The top-5 and top-10 markets are my two favorites with where things stand now.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Daniel Suarez to Finish Top 10 (+240)

Daniel Suarez has struggled recently, posting only one top-10 finish since his win in Atlanta. Some of that is explainable, though, and I think he's a reliable value here.

Suarez admitted while the team was in a rut this spring that they were experimenting with setups, trying to unlock new speed for the playoffs. It didn't work, and they've ditched those efforts. Since Suarez said that, he has posted his two best average running positions of the season in Charlotte and Sonoma.

Suarez does have some skill on short, flat tracks. He had a pair of top-10s on them in 2022, and he was 11th at the Championship Race in Phoenix last year.

Finally, there was speed in the car in practice. Suarez was 15th in single-lap speed but eighth in both five- and 10-lap average. With a 13th-place starting spot, Suarez will have easy access to the top 10, as well.

With all of that combined, I've got Suarez at 33.1% to finish top 10, up from 29.4% implied. Now that the experiments are behind him, now seems like a good time to buy low.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.