NASCAR Betting Guide: Pennzoil 400

At long last, we finally get a true test of speed on Sunday.

The first two races of the NASCAR Cup Series season have both taken place on drafting tracks. There, equipment matters less, and they're running a different rules package than what you'll see in most races.

This weekend? They're in Las Vegas. We're finally going to see who's got that sweet, sweet giddy-up.

Because both Ford and Toyota have new bodies this year, there's extra uncertainty entering this event. We can't simply apply last year's numbers to this field and expect a similar output.

But in general, these races will be much easier to predict than what we've seen thus far, and it allows us to deviate from the longshots we've had to live with of late.

As of now, I'm not seeing a ton of outright value in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds for the Pennzoil 400. Thus, I'm going to hold off there until we see cars on track Saturday.

But there are two other spots I'm willing to plug in before then. Let's dig into those now, and then we can circle back with any additions later.

Pennzoil 400 Betting Picks

Toyota to Win (+170)

(UPDATE: This market has since lengthened to +185. That pushes the implied odds down to 35.1%. Toyota did lose some win equity in my model thanks to Denny Hamlin's poor qualifying effort and the strength of Hendrick Motorsports, but I do still think +185 is a fine number.)

As mentioned, there's volatility around Toyota with their redesigned body. There's always a chance they struggle out of the gate to get a handle on things.

But as things stand now, I think they're undervalued as a manufacturer.

Even though my model has two Chevys at the top (Kyle Larson and William Byron), it has Toyota winning 39.2% of the time. Both Denny Hamlin (+850) and Tyler Reddick (+1000) show value individually, but with the implied odds at +170 being 37.0%, the better route is to bundle them all together.

It helps that there's depth within this stable. Toyota has five drivers with outright odds at +1800 or shorter at FanDuel, an equal number to Chevy and more than Ford (three). Of that group, I think Christopher Bell is overvalued at +900, but it's not a big enough gap to nullify the overall value.

Even with the old body, Toyota won 3 of 7 races (42.9%) on 1.5-mile tracks last year. As long as they maintain, this should be a good value.

But if they make gains? This number might look even better in retrospect.

Bubba Wallace Over Ty Gibbs (-122)

(UPDATE: Wallace has since shortened to -154 to win this matchup. That's far enough where the value -- in my eyes -- is now gone.)

I'm high on Ty Gibbs entering this year. He flashed upside toward the end of 2023, and as a 22-year-old phenom, he'll be an outright target for us soon.

But right now, Bubba Wallace is the better driver on this track type, and the gap is big enough to justify the -122 odds.

In seven races on 1.5-mile tracks last year, Gibbs finished better than 14th just once. Wallace did that in six of seven races.

Gibbs' best run came in Homestead, where he finished seventh. But Wallace finished sixth there. In all, the lone time Gibbs topped Wallace on this track type was when Wallace blew a tire and wrecked in Kansas. The other six races all favored Wallace.

Plenty of Gibbs' poor finishes were due to bad luck rather than speed. He'll be better this year than last. But my model is already accounting for that progression, and it still has Wallace winning this matchup around two-thirds of the time.

The implied odds at -122 are 55.0%. This is a hefty price to pay for a matchup. I just think that Wallace is a full tier above Gibbs right now, allowing me to get here despite the juice.

Mid-Week Addition: Tyler Reddick to Win (+1200)

(UPDATE: Reddick is still +1200 to win. After qualifying, his win odds decreased to 7.7% for me, right in line with his implied odds. It was a fine bet earlier, but it's not one I'd recommend adding at the moment.)

As mentioned above, I was showing slim value on Tyler Reddick when he was +1000 to win.

Now that he has lengthened to +1200? Let's boogie.

My model has Reddick's win odds at 9.9%, up from his new implied odds of 7.7%. It makes him the biggest outright value of anybody for me this week.

I believe this is for good reason. Reddick is known for dominating at places like Kansas and Homestead, where you can run pretty much any groove. Las Vegas isn't that, but it has featured increase tire degradation in recent years. That should play well to Reddick's strengths.

Reddick has won a race at a 1.5-mile track in consecutive seasons, including at Vegas' sister track, Kansas, last year. Given the potential for improvements at Toyota, I think +1200 is long enough to justify firing.

Mid-Week Addition: Erik Jones to Finish Top 10 (+230)

(UPDATE: Jones has lengthened to +340 to finish top 10 due to issues in practice. Jones failed to log a quality time before a Ryan Preece crash put out the yellow flag. Thus, most of Jones' time was on used tires rather than stickers. He qualified 22nd, so he wasn't a true dud. I'd be fine considering him at +340, even if my model is down on him now due to the poor Saturday.)

Improvements are possible for all Toyotas due to the body change. But for Legacy MC, the upsides are even greater.

That pushes me to bite on Erik Jones even if this bet is a thin value by my model.

Last year, Legacy was in limbo. It was announced early in the year they'd swap to Toyota from Chevrolet, leading to decreased technical support from their manufacturer. Despite that, Jones still managed to boast a top-10 average running position during playoff races in Darlington, Kansas, and Texas, showing the talent in the driver.

Now that Legacy is officially a Toyota, we should be optimistic about them for this season. Even without giving Jones a major bump, my model has his top-10 odds at 31.5%. His implied odds are 30.3%, so the model likes this bet. I just happen to skew toward love due to the potential for this team to outperform expectations.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Denny Hamlin to Win (+2100)

Denny Hamlin had a bit of a slip during his qualifying run, and as a result, he'll start 28th. Obviously, that's not ideal, but the market has moved too far against him.

After adjusting for group speed discrepancies, Hamlin's practice times were fine. He ranked 15th in single-lap speed speed and 17th in 10-lap average. He also saw several of his Toyota stablemates qualify well, so I don't think it's a manufacturer-wide issue; he just didn't pop on Saturday.

My model factors in that data and does penalize Hamlin for it. He's down to 5.8% to win in my sims, which I think has moved him a bit too far. But even then, he's well clear of the 4.5% implied odds at +2100.

In seven races on 1.5-mile tracks last year, Hamlin qualified better than 10th just twice. His practice speed was also poor in both Las Vegas races last year, and he had a top-seven average running position each time. I don't think Saturday issues should lower us enough on Hamlin to avoid betting him at +2100.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Martin Truex Jr. Over Joey Logano (+122)

On Saturday, the clear advantage between Martin Truex Jr. and Joey Logano belonged to Logano. Even after adjusting for their respective groups, Logano was faster in practice, and he went out and won the pole.

Even with that data in the mix, though, my model still views this as a toss-up. That should push us to take the +122 on Truex.

Frankly, Truex is never fast in practice. It was true in all the races on 1.5-mile tracks last year whereas Logano often was near the top of the charts. But when it came to the races, Truex finished ahead of Logano four out of seven times.

Both Ford and Toyota have new bodies this year, so there's equal uncertainty for each of these drivers. Thus, I'm willing to trust the model and take the plus money on Truex.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.