Monday Night Football Preview: Will the Jaguars Cruise Past the Burrow-less Bengals?

Week 13 of the NFL season will come to a close tonight with the Cincinnati Bengals (5-6) visiting the Jacksonville Jaguars (8-3).

Any hype surrounding this matchup has lost momentum since Joe Burrow went down with a season-ending injury.

Prior to his injury, this Bengals team was on the mend from a case of early-season underperformance, piecing together a four-game winning streak against some tough competition. But it's blindingly clear how important Burrow is to Cincinnati. Going into Week 11, the Bengals' Super Bowl odds stood at a feasible +1700. These odds have since plummeted to +47000 -- per the Super Bowl odds at FanDuel Sportsbook -- and even their odds of making the playoffs sit at an unattainable +1260.

Jake Browning will make his second career start tonight, and his greenness-induced vulnerability likely won't mix well with a solid Jacksonville defense.

Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars have had some lapses this season, but it's been to the tune of eight wins. Their three losses came against venerable teams (Kansas City Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers, and Houston Texans) and they've won seven of their last eight games, granting them the seventh-shortest Super Bowl odds going into tonight (+1500).

A win tonight would have the Jags sitting even prettier in the AFC South. They currently are the heavy favorite (-800) to win the division for the second year in a row.

The game kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET and can be watched on ABC and ESPN.

NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Bengals at Jaguars Week 13 Betting Odds: Spread, Total, and Moneyline

• Spread: Jaguars -9.5 (-118)
• Total: 39.5
• Moneyline:
  • Jaguars: -500
  • Bengals: +385

Bengals at Jaguars Week 13 Matchup Analysis

The spread shows that we are in for a lopsided Monday Night Football matchup, and no team in the league touts a better against-the-spread (ATS) record than the Jaguars do (8-3).

According to numberFire's nERD-based power rankings, Jacksonville has the 17th-best schedule-adjusted offense and the 12th-best schedule-adjusted defense. Cincinnati ranks 20th on offense and 26th on defense.

If we check out Jake Browning's stats from last week, he wasn't terrible, especially given that he faced a Pittsburgh Steelers team that has the seventh-best pass defense. Browning threw for 227 yards with a solid 73.1% completion percentage, pairing it with one touchdown and one interception. But the Bengals' offense put up only 10 points and struggled with an abysmal 20.0% third-down conversion percentage.

Even with Burrow starting a majority of the games up until now, Cincinnati still has only a 34.5% third-down conversion percentage (eighth-worst in NFL) on the season.

The Jaguars allow the fifth-most passing yards per game (255.0), so perhaps Browning can utilize offensive weapon Ja'Marr Chase to produce some fireworks tonight.

Success on the ground likely won't come into play. The Bengals have the 10th-worst rush offense and are gaining the sixth-fewest yards per rush attempt. Meanwhile, the Jaguars allow the third-fewest rush yards per game (87.4). Cincinnati's implied team total stands at a modest 14.5 points.

Travis Etienne (ribs) has a questionable designation for Week 13 but is expected to play tonight. Though his limitations in practice this week could present a red flag, he's in for an excellent matchup.

The Bengals cede the second-most rush yards per game (139.6) and the second-most yards per rush attempt (5.0), making them the fourth-worst rush D in the league. D'Ernest Johnson has seen an uptick in workload over the last two games and could factor in given Etienne's potential limitations, but either way, I'd expect a successful game on the ground for the Jags.

Cincinnati's pass D fares better than their rush D, but they still allow the sixth-most passing yards per game (255.0) and the second-most yards per pass attempt (7.6). Lawrence is fresh off the heels of an outing of 364 passing yards, with his most explosive target being Calvin Ridley and his most consistent target being Christian Kirk.

The one clear advantage the Bengals have over the Jaguars is their ability to force turnovers. The Bengals have forced the third-most (tied) takeaways this season and have the second-best turnover differential in the league, although Browning is likely to turn it over more than Burrow did. Lawrence has thrown five interceptions over his last six games, and the Jags come into the night with the third-most fumbles in the league.

If the Bengals can win the turnover battle, perhaps they can keep this one closer than expected, but there's not much that stands in the way of Jacksonville's ninth win.

Bengals vs. Jaguars Prop Bets

Christian Kirk Over 50.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

He may fly a bit under the radar as NFL receiving threats go, but few players have been producing as consistently as Christian Kirk this season. Save for a Week 1 game where he saw a mere three targets, Kirk has grabbed at least 46 receiving yards in every game this season. As a whole, he's averaging 69.2 receiving yards per game and has cleared this prop in seven out of his last ten games.

The Bengals let up a towering 168.5 receiving yards to wide receivers per game. It's not asking much for Kirk, who leads the Jags in target share (22.8%), to reel in 51 yards.

Plus, Kirk's usage is trending upwards. He's had a team-leading 24.2% target share and 40.0% air yard share over his last three games, averaging 80.3 yards in that span.

numberFire projects Kirk to easily hit the over on this prop, forecasting him to amass 66.4 receiving yards.

Travis Etienne 70+ Rushing Yards (+104)

Injury designation aside, this game has monster Travis Etienne performance written all over it.

Etienne is averaging 66.0 rush yards per game. The Jags have played in four games against teams that rank in the bottom 13 of rush yards allowed per game -- Etienne averaged 80.2 rush yards across those three games.

Tonight, the Jaguars will face their smoothest rush D competition yet. The Bengals allow the second-most rush yards and yards per rush attempt in the NFL. Etienne has proven he can capitalize on weak rush defenses, and he should benefit from a positive game script with the Jags a heavy favorite.

While I'd also look out for D'Ernest Johnson Over 20.5 Rushing Yards (-110), Etienne's workload and matchup are too good to ignore.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.