MLB.TV Free Game of the Day Betting Picks for Giants-Rays (4/12/24)

The lengthy MLB season can cause some games to get lost in the shuffle, but MLB.TV provides fans with a Free Game of the Day throughout the regular season that can also be seen on FanDuel TV+ here, or also available on Apple TV, Roku, Android TV, Fire TV, and FanDuel Sportsbook.

Why not add to the viewing excitement by getting in on the MLB odds over at FanDuel Sportsbook?

For this article, we've got you covered with a betting guide for each Free Game of the Day. With that, let's take a look at some of the best bets for today's free game.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Giants vs. Rays Betting Odds: Spread, Total, and Moneyline

• Time: 6:50 p.m. ET
• Spread: Giants -1.5 (+152)
• Total: 8.5
• Moneyline:
  • Giants: -106
  • Rays: -110

Best Bet

Over 8.5 (-105)

The Tampa Bay Rays (7-6) will host the San Francisco Giants (5-8) for today's MLB.TV Free Game of the Day.

With untrustworthy starters taking the mound for both teams and a pair of bullpens that have been horrific to start the season, I think siding with the over is the best bet for this game.

Keaton Winn will be on the bump for San Francisco. Through two starts he has posted a combined stat line of 11 IP, 7 ER, 4 BB, and 7 Ks, good for a 5.76 ERA and an 0-2 record.

Tonight will serve as Winn's seventh major league start. He has given up a minimum of three earned runs in his seven starts despite pitching a maximum of six innings in this split.

He's striking out batters at just a 16.7% rate, which could give a strikeout-prone Tampa Bay team (23.9% K%; 11th-highest) more leeway than usual.

Past Winn, the pitching won't get any prettier for the Giants. In 44.1 IP this season, SF's relief has surrendered 28 ER, handing them a 5.68 ERA (fourth-worst).

The Rays have stolen 15 bags (fifth-most) this season, so I like their chances to piece together some runs in this one.

Jacob Waguespack is expected to take the mound in what will be a bullpen game for Tampa Bay. Waguespack has appeared in three games this season but has yet to lead things off. Through 6 IP he has allowed 6 ER, 9 H, and 8 BB, stamping him with an abysmal 9.00 ERA and 2.83 WHIP.

Waguespack hadn't pitched in the majors since 2020 prior to being added to Tampa Bay's roster at the start of this season. In his career, he's suffered with a 5.31 ERA through 101.2 IP.

The fact that Waguespack has allowed 17 baserunners through just six innings should be a major cause for concern. We should probably expect a maximum of three innings from him in this one, which is even more encouraging for the over given that Tampa Bay's relief has let up 35 ER (most) through just 49 IP, leading to a 6.43 ERA (second-worst).

Both the Giants and the Rays are averaging 9.3 total runs in their games this season. I'd expect the pitching liabilities on both sides to help in reaching that average tonight.

Best Props

Keaton Winn Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-148)

Winn is averaging just 4.42 strikeouts through seven major league starts. He's exceeded 5.5 strikeouts in just two of these seven games, both of which came against teams that ranked in the top 5 of K%.

The Rays come into the night with a 23.9% K%, which is the 11th-highest rate in the league. But Winn is averaging just 2.25 strikeouts against teams that rank outside the top 5 in K% despite pitching an average of 5.3 innings per game in this split.

He's managed just a 16.7% K% through two games this season, so I have little faith in him to get over the hump.

FanDuel Research's projections expect Winn to record just 4.23 Ks in this one.

Michael Conforto To Record 2+ Bases (+130)

Michael Conforto has been shining this season, posting a .326 BA, .609 SLG, and 170 wRC+ through 12 games.

He's recorded at least two bases in half of his games, so I think laying these +130 odds is a good move, especially given his matchup.

Waguespack has allowed lefties to go 4-for-6 at the plate this season. That's a super small sample, and it's unlikely that Conforto will receive more than two at-bats against Waguespack, but I still like him in this spot.

Conforto has hit six extra-base hits in 36 at-bats against right-handed pitchers this season. In a game where the Giants seem primed to eviscerate Waguespack and/or the Tampa Bay bullpen, I'm happy to back a red-hot Conforto.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.