MLB Betting: The Braves and Dodgers Are the National League Frontrunners
Dating back to 2019, the National League representative in the World Series has been different every year.
That makes it unpredictable, even if one team has been more dominant than the rest as we cross the season's halfway point.
Here are the five teams with the best odds to win the NL, per the National League betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
1. Atlanta Braves (+170)
The Atlanta Braves have been otherworldly over the past month, and it has brought them to the best record in the NL.
Over their last 22 games, the Braves are 19-3 -- the best team in baseball. They have the best offensive numbers in the sport as they have been powered along by NL MVP favorite Ronald Acuna (-190 odds) and first baseman Matt Olson (leads NL in home runs with 26; second most in MLB).
The Braves lead the league in weighted on-base average at a .355 clip while ranking third in weighted runs created plus (wRC+) with 121. When it comes to the power numbers, it isn't even close. Atlanta has 147 home runs -- 20 more than the next-highest team. It's been pure dominance at the plate, and it's making them arguably the scariest team in both the NL and MLB.
When it comes to pitching, the Braves live it up on that side of the diamond as well. Their 3.86 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) is the sixth lowest in baseball, and that's without ace Max Fried currently healthy. Spencer Strider has followed his rookie season with another special year thus far; his 38.9% strikeout rate is tops in the majors by 5%. His shutdown-level strikeout rate has the Braves second amongst teams at 25.4%.
No matter what part of the game you're looking for, the Braves have what it takes.
2. Los Angeles Dodgers (+220)
Until something crazy happens, the Los Angeles Dodgers are always going to be in contention for the NL pennant.
Despite being in third place in the NL West, the Dodgers still have the second-best odds of anyone in the NL -- and for good reason. Out of the last six seasons, the Dodgers have represented the NL three times, the last time coming in the shortened 2020 season where they won the World Series.
Sitting at 44-35, most of the "problems" for Los Angeles this season have come at the hands of their pitching not being as great as it usually tends to be. The team's 4.08 SIERA ranks 13th while their 4.29 fielding independent pitching (FIP) is 20th. The statistics aren't up to the usual expectation, but the offense has made up for it this season while it can try to get right in the second half.
The Dodgers are second in home runs behind the Braves with 127 long balls. Their .331 wOBA and 109 wRC+ have the Dodgers ranked sixth in both statistical categories.
Three Wild Card spots being up for grabs allows the Dodgers to remain comfortable even if the NL West can't be won. The Dodgers as "underdogs" could be what drives them back to the World Series, yet the odds don't see them as underdogs by any means.
3. Arizona Diamondbacks (+1200)
There's little chance anyone expected the Arizona Diamondbacks to have the third-best odds in the National League to win the league in June, but here we are.
In quick order, the Diamondbacks have become one of the most exciting teams to watch thanks to rookie Corbin Carroll being a potential 40-40 type player and making the rest of the lineup better for it. Arizona has been lighting it up on offense this season with a .333 wOBA (5th) and 107 wRC+ (9th).
Carroll's ability to run (24 stolen bases) has helped push the Diamondbacks to third in stolen bases as well, keeping opponents on their toes each and every game. A lot of the reason that the Diamondbacks are leading the NL West is that they get on base and make things happen by putting the ball in play (19.8% strikeout rate; third-lowest in MLB).
Now, what may hold Arizona back is their pitching, which ranks in the bottom half of the league as they'll likely be looking for help in the second half if winning the NL pennant is in their view. The Diamondbacks currently rank 21st in SIERA (4.33) and 17th in FIP (4.23) -- numbers that need to go down if they want to go up and win their first pennant since 2001.
4. San Francisco Giants (+1200)
The San Francisco Giants are as dangerous a baseball team as any in the league right now.
There's no question that the NL West rivals the AL East in terms of dominance with four teams in legitimate playoff contention. The Giants have a lot to do with that.
San Francisco has been one of the very best in the month of June as the team's last 16 games have resulted in a 13-3 record. It's that run that has helped the Giants rise up to this spot, sitting at 45-35 -- second in the NL West.
Offense hasn't been the Giants' strongest trait this year, but it certainly hasn't been bad by any stretch. Their marks of 104 wRC+ (10th) and .324 wOBA (11th) are surely respectable, giving them enough to be a rising team when you mix those stats with what has become one of the best pitching staffs this year.
The pitching numbers sparkle, as the Giants rank second in Major League Baseball with a 3.77 SIERA. Other strong points for San Francisco include a 3.85 FIP, 3.77 expected fielding independent pitching, and a 23.4% strikeout rate.
Pitching can bring any team far if the bats can come through at the right time -- which they have for the Giants all season. If there's any team not named the Braves or Dodgers worth believing in when it comes to the NL, the Giants fit the bill.
5. San Diego Padres (+1200)
Sitting at 37-43, the San Diego Padres receiving any consideration tied for the third highest odds (+1200) tells you that it's all about believing in the talent on this one.
The talent, mind you, has not brought them to any sort of real glory yet this season. When the best offensive statistic they have is their walk rate, which ranks first at 11.0%, then you know something is probably wrong with the lineup that features Fernando Tatis Jr., Juan Soto, Xander Bogaerts, and Manny Machado.
The Padres offense has for the most part been in the middle of the pack. 93 home runs (14th), 101 wRC+ (14th), and .316 wOBA (15th) all speak to them not being bad by any stretch but also not being the impressive offense that the talent on paper says they should be.
Pitching has been about the same as the offense -- middle-of-the-pack. With a 4.14 FIP (11th) and a 4.09 SIERA (14th), the Padres are doing things well but are not playing to their preseason expectations by any means. It's hard to bet on a team to win the National League when, if the playoffs started today, they wouldn't even have a spot in them.
San Diego has the talent, but their record right now makes it hard to believe in them -- even if they made it to the National League Championship Series (NLCS) one year ago.
The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.