MLB Betting Guide for Tuesday 8/22/23: 3 Road Moneylines to Consider on a Full Slate

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Chicago Cubs at Detroit Tigers

Cubs ML (-116)

It's bizarre the Chicago Cubs are such short favorites in this spot. It's even more bizarre that some consensus odds sites are showing a public attraction the Detroit Tigers on the other side.

Drew Smyly will toe the slab for the Cubbies in this one, and he's extremely well-positioned to succeed. Detroit has just a 74 wRC+ against lefties during the past 30 days (fifth-worst in MLB), but it might take a bit more digging to feel comfortable about him given a 4.92 ERA. Behind it, Smyly has a 4.15 expected ERA (xERA) with a minuscule 35.5% hard-hit rate allowed. He's just not a pitcher prone to blowups.

On the other side, Reese Olson certainly could be. Olson's 4.93 xERA actually exceeds his ERA (4.83), and he's allowed a much higher 39.2% hard-hit rate with it. Of course, the true difficulty comes from his matchup. The division-hunting Cubs have an .854 OPS against orthodox pitchers in the past 30 days, which is a mark that trails only the mighty Atlanta Braves. Would the Braves be -116 here with a pitcher like Smyly on the bump?

This full-game moneyline is an option since Chicago's bullpen (4.20 xFIP) has outperformed Detroit's (4.29) over the past 30 days, but the Cubs ML in First 5 Innings (-116) has the exact same price at FanDuel Sportsbook for anyone looking to avoid any potential shenanigans there.

Washington Nationals at New York Yankees

Nationals ML (+158)

The New York Yankees are favored today exclusively because they're the New York Yankees. I love targeting that type of angle.

That's because the visiting Washington Nationals have a sizable starting pitching advantage today. Through his flaws, Josiah Gray can absolutely attack this matchup. Gray's 3.96 ERA is decently supported by a 4.73 xERA, but notably, he's significantly improved his hard-hit rate allowed (35.9%) and flyball rate (39.0%) in 2023. He's no longer a launching pad, and he'll benefit a great deal from a Yankees lineup with a pitiful 83 wRC+ against righties in the past 30 days (third-worst in MLB).

Surprisingly, Carlos Rodon has become the launching pad amidst an injury-plagued season for the Bombers. Rodon has a hideous 5.40 xERA, 53.2% flyball rate, and 44.9% hard-hit rate allowed in 27.0 innings this season, and this Nationals offense is not an asylum for southpaws. With a .722 OPS and a tiny 17.4% strikeout rate in the split, Washington is actually one of the trickier matchups in the league for a strikeout-oriented lefty.

The gap between this number and Nationals +0.5 in First 5 Innings (+106) is stark enough to trust the improving Washington 'pen. They've got a 4.19 xFIP in the past 30 days, which is a top-12 mark in baseball. If Rodon hasn't significantly improved from limited stints thus far, this could be decided well before they come into the equation.

Minnesota Twins at Milwaukee Brewers

Twins ML in First 5 Innings (-112)

Here, we will target just the first five innings. The Minnesota Twins' bullpen has a 4.53 xFIP over the past (sixth-worst in baseball), so I'll pass on the experience of Twins ML (-112) at the same price, but this wager could be unavailable at your legal sportsbook(s). If it is, take the moneyline anyway.

Still, the Twin City Travelers should get the better of their split tonight with an even pitching matchup ahead. They'll trot out Bailey Ober, and the gangly right-hander continues to have a breakout 2023 campaign. His 3.40 ERA is well-supported by a 3.81 xERA, and Ober's 24.6% strikeout rate implies he'll miss some bats. Importantly, he's also got a tremendous hard-hit rate allowed (35.9%) entering a matchup with the impotent Milwaukee Brewers offense. The Brewers tied with the aforementioned Yankees for the third-worst wRC+ against righties (83) in the past month of play.

Milwaukee will counter with Wade Miley, who is an underrated hurler that I typically don't like to target. Miley's 4.57 xERA and 16.8% strikeout rate scream "target me" when his 43.1% groundball rate and 31.9% hard-hit rate allowed absolutely say "don't". I still will give the benefit of the doubt to the Twins in their matchup when they enter sporting a .763 OPS against southpaws during the past 30 days.

Ober and Miley are similar pitchers that limit explosive outings, but in addition to Minnesota's righty having a higher strikeout rate, he'll also be better supported by his offense on paper. That's a great package in a near pick 'em.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.