MLB Betting Guide for Thursday 8/31/23: Fading Suspect Offenses

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres

Under 8.5 (+100)

With the San Francisco Giants set to visit the San Diego Padres for their series opener at pitcher-friendly Petco Park, runs should be at a premium.

A total set at 8.5 is far too high for two offenses scoring at a below-average rate over the last month -- especially with two capable arms toeing the rubber.

For the Giants, they're expected to start with an opener before shortly transitioning into lefty Sean Manaea. Though his 5.05 ERA is concerning at face value, Manaea has quietly had a strong year and holds career-best marks in skill-interactive ERA (3.59) and strikeout rate (28.5%). The Padres left-handed splits are strong, but their offense has largely sputtered over the last month when they're averaging a measly 4.37 runs per game.

On the opposite side, righty Pedro Avila, aside from getting shelled in his most recent outing, has been highly effective for San Diego. Even with him giving up 5 runs in 4.2 innings last weekend, he still sports a strong 2.63 ERA -- backed up by an impressive 3.40 SIERA. He's done an excellent job keeping the ball on the ground with a 58.8% groundball rate and has flashed stellar strikeout stuff via a 27.4% strikeout rate and a 15.0% swinging-strike rate.

He shouldn't have any issues against a Giants offense averaging the third-fewest runs per game this month (3.62). San Francisco has been one of the least effective offenses in the league over the second half of the season -- especially against righties. Since the All-Star break, the Giants have far and away the league's lowest wOBA (.278) and ISO (.120) in that split.

With two effective pitchers and one incredibly suspect San Francisco offense, I'd be all over the under even if it wasn't plus odds. Getting it at +100 is just icing on the cake.

Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals

Nationals +1.5 (-120)

Though the Washington Nationals trail the Miami Marlins 7-2 in the division rivals' season-long series, only three of Miami's seven wins have been decided by more than a single run. After taking two of three from the Marlins in Miami last weekend, the Nationals are well-positioned to cover as home underdogs tonight.

Joan Adon takes the mound for the home Nationals tonight. For the season, Adon owns an elevated 4.43 SIERA and an uninspiring 24.5% called + swinging-strike rate (CSW%). That said, he is coming off the best start of his career against these very Marlins. In their 7-4 win last week, Adon threw 6.0 shutout innings, holding Miami to just three hits in their own ballpark.

That's been a common theme for the Marlins over the second half of the season. In addition to scoring the fewest runs per game (3.46) in August, Miami has struggled mightily against right-handed pitching. Since the All-Star break, the Marlins boast the third-lowest wOBA (.295) and the seventh-lowest ISO (.151) in that split.

On the opposite side, the Nationals could be in for a sneaky big night against Braxton Garrett. Garrett has pitched well this season, sporting a 3.45 SIERA, a 31.1% CSW%, and a 49.6% groundball rate. However, he's given up multiple runs in 8 of his last 10 starts -- including last week when Washington put up 3 runs on 7 hits in 6.0 innings of work.

The Nats have quietly been formidable against lefties over the second half of the year. Since the All-Star break, Washington has registered the 12th-best wOBA (.333) and the 13th-highest wRC+ (109) in that split -- all while striking out at the fifth-lowest rate.

Washington just took two from Miami and now is a home underdog against them less than a week later? That doesn't add up.

I'm all in on Washington to cover +1.5 (-120) at home and will also be looking at Nationals ML (+140) given the plus odds.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.