MLB Betting Guide for Monday 8/29/23: A Crucial NL Central Bout on the North Side
Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.
From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.
Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.
Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs
Cubs ML (-130)
Just four games separate the first-place Milwaukee Brewers and the Chicago Cubs in the NL Central. With the teams squaring off for a three-game series, this week's bout at Wrigley Field could prove critical in deciding the division.
Despite Milwaukee carrying the league's longest active winning streak (8) into tonight's series opener, I'm all over the home Cubbies.
Wade Miley toes the rubber for the Brewers tonight, bringing with him a stellar 3.18 ERA. However, a closer look into Miley's profile suggests he's due for some regression. His skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) sits all the way up at 5.03, and he's gotten pretty lucky with a .251 batting average on balls in play (BABIP).
The Cubs haven't been great against lefties, but they've already seen Miley once this year. They tagged him for 9 hits and 4 runs at the beginning of July and shouldn't have much trouble doing so again tonight considering they've racked up the sixth-highest wOBA (.346) since the All-Star break.
On the opposite side, Jameson Taillon takes the mound for the Cubs. Taillon is almost the opposite of Miley in that his ERA (5.60) is significantly higher than his SIERA (4.57). Taillon isn't pitching great right now, boasting a 6.08 ERA through five August starts. However, the Brewers have struggled mightily against righties this season -- boasting the sixth-lowest wOBA (.303) and third-lowest ISO (.142) in the split.
I don't see the Cubs blowing the Brewers out, but with just 32 games remaining, Chicago knows how big of a series this is. Getting the series started with a win would do wonders for the Cubs' chances in the division. I am backing them to get that W.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers
Under 8.5 (-105)
While unders are never fun, we're in the business of betting on value, and there's plenty of it in tonight's Arizona Diamondbacks-Los Angeles Dodgers matchup.
Betting against the Dodgers' potent lineup can be scary, but LA is up against the NL Cy Young favorite, Zac Gallen. Gallen has been tremendous this season, sporting the eighth-lowest ERA (3.11) and the sixth-lowest WHIP (1.06). His 46.2% hard-hit rate does cause some concern against the Dodgers' offense, but he offsets that with a healthy strikeout rate (26.8%) and a tiny walk rate (5.1%).
LA did put up five runs on Gallen in his lone prior start against them this season, but that was all the way back on Opening Day. He's since turned into one of the best pitchers in baseball and should be out to prove it tonight.
On the opposite side, rookie Bobby Miller is the make-or-break factor in tonight's under. The talented righty has flashed brilliance in his brief time in the majors, giving up fewer than two runs in eight of his 15 starts. Miller's Baseball Savant page is full of pretty red numbers, and his 4.15 SIERA suggests his 3.86 ERA is no joke. Though his 22.2% strikeout rate isn't eye-popping, a 27.1% called+swinging rate (CSW%) suggests some untapped potential in the strikeout department.
It doesn't hurt that Miller shut down this D-backs offense just three weeks ago, holding them to 4 hits and 0 runs in 6.0 innings of work. That's been a common theme in Arizona's second half. The Diamondbacks have really taken a step back on offense this month, averaging just 4.21 runs per game while ranking 17th in wOBA (.311) and 25th in ISO (.148).
I have faith in Miller's abilities against a struggling Arizona offense, so it's the Dodgers' offense that is the biggest bet-buster here. That said, if anyone is going to slow them down, it would be the Cy Young favorite, Zac Gallen.
Atlanta Braves at Colorado Rockies
Braves -1.5 in F5 Innings (+102)
Okay, now that we're through talking about a lack of offense, let's head to Denver where the Atlanta Braves should be in for plenty of fireworks against the Colorado Rockies.
I like Atlanta's first-five run line because of the increased juice (+102, compared to -150 for the game) and a lack of trust in the Rockies' starter, Austin Gomber. Gomber has been incredibly hitter-friendly this season, sporting a 5.21 SIERA and allowing a .364 wOBA. His 37.9% flyball rate is among the highest in the league, and he's given up the sixth-most HR/9 (1.65) among qualified starters.
That bodes well for Atlanta's chances of getting out to an early lead, especially given their lefty splits. Against southpaws, the Braves lead the league by a comfortable margin in wOBA (.375), ISO (.237), and HR/FB rate (20.6%).
In general, the Braves continue to trot out the best offense in baseball. They've kept on rolling this month, registering the third-highest wOBA (.372) in August and averaging the most runs per game (6.48).
Atlanta should put up runs in a hurry, and they'll be aided defensively by righty Bryce Elder. Elder is still outperforming his expected stats (3.39 ERA, compared to a 4.24 xERA), but he does a good job limiting barrels (6.3%) and his sixth-highest groundball rate (51.9%) should help mitigate the impact of Coors Field.
It's similarly tempting to hop on the over for Atlanta's 7.5-run team total (+100), but I like the value of the Braves' first-five run line with a vulnerable starter on the bump for Colorado.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.