MLB Betting Guide for Friday 9/29/23: Twins Due for Fireworks at Coors Field

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles

Over 7.5 (-115)

We kick off the final regular season betting guide with everyone's favorite kind of bet: the over.

With shaky starters squaring off and a minuscule, 7.5-run total, I'm running back the over in tonight's Baltimore Orioles-Boston Red Sox matchup.

Although these teams combined for just 2 runs in yesterday's opener, I'm expecting a lot more fireworks tonight -- namely due to the pitching matchup.

John Means toes the rubber for the home Orioles, bringing with him an ERA that may not have legs. Means' 2.60 ERA isn't something we want to target on paper, but a deeper dive suggests the lefty is due for some regression.

To start, he's only allowed a .135 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) through his first 3 starts. That comes despite him striking just 9.1% of opposing hitters and generating a measly 13.7% whiff rate. While Means has done a good job limiting hard hits (32.7%) and getting hitters to chase (33.6%), he's also given up an absurdly-high flyball rate (52.7%). In turn, his skill-interactive ERA (6.33) is abnormally high, as is his expected FIP (.620).

Even though the Red Sox have gone through a cold spell to close out the season, their season-long splits against lefties are strong enough that I'm comfortable betting on them to put up some runs. For the year, Boston sits in the top half of the league in wOBA (.322) in that split. While they do struggle to generate fly balls (8th-lowest, 34.8% rate), a date with the ground ball-adverse Means could be just what they need to get back on track.

On the flip side, I'm not worried about Baltimore's chances against Nick Pivetta. The righty has pitched pretty well this month (3.08 ERA) and it's worth noting that his 3.43 SIERA tops tonight's slate, but there's a reason Pivetta's running a 4.25 ERA for the season -- he gives up a ton of solid contact. For the season, Pivetta has a bottom 4% barrel rate (11.6%) and a bottom 19% hard-hit rate (43.6%). He hardly forces ground balls (36.1%) and sports a dangerous 16.3% HR/FB rate.

The righty lives on strikeouts which he racks up at a 30.7% clip. Unfortunately for him, the Orioles aren't a very high-strikeout team, ranking outside the top half of the league with 22.2% strikeout and 27.6% called + swinging strike rates (CSW%). They've been one of the better lineups in the league against righties over the second half of the year as well, ranking 12th in wOBA (.318) and 11th in wRC+ (103).

While Baltimore hasn't had a game go over since last Friday, 51% of their matchups have gone over the listed total on the year. By no means are they strangers to high-scoring affairs and, with any luck, they'll be in for another tonight.

Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves

Braves -1.5 (-140)

We stick to the eastern division bit flip leagues for our next play, diving into an NL East battle between the Washington Nationals and Atlanta Braves.

Winners of six of their last seven games, I'm all over the Braves to cover as 1.5-run, home favorites tonight.

The first-place Braves have dominated the Nationals this season, winning 7 of 10 matchups between them. Of those 7 wins, 6 have come by at least 2 runs -- a number I expect to climb after tonight.

To do that, however, the Braves will need a strong outing from 28-year-old rookie, Allan Winans. The righty has filled in well, all things considered, racking up a 4.33 ERA, a 3.82 expected (x) ERA, and a 27.4% strikeout rate through 5 starts. Winans does a good job limiting walks (5.1% BB rate) and boasts strong quality of contact numbers. While it's only a 27-inning sample, Winans' 6.5% barrel, and 41.6% hard-hit rates bode well for his chances of containing the 'Nats tonight.

He did just that in his previous start, holding Washington to a pair of runs while striking out 6 in 5.0 innings of work. The Nationals don't scare anyone at this point in the season but they've been especially feeble against righties. In that split, Washington ranks in the bottom 10 in wOBA (.305), ISO (.147), and wRC+ (89) since the All-Star break.

As a result, we won't need much from Atlanta's offense for them to cover 1.5 runs, but they'll probably put on a show anyway.

The Braves square off with righty Trevor Williams. Williams didn't do much right this season, racking up a 5.55 ERA, a 5.77 xERA, and a measly 16.8% strikeout rate. Perhaps most concerning for tonight, however, is his batted ball data. Williams gave up a high, 10.5% barrel rate to go along with a 42.3% fly ball rate and 17.0% HR/FB ratio.

If you're thinking to yourself "Boy, that doesn't sound like a recipe for success against the Braves" then, well, you'd be right.

Williams has only seen Atlanta once this season. While he got out of a five-inning start having allowed only seven hits and two runs, I'm not optimistic he gets that lucky tonight.

What is there even left to say about this Braves lineup? Atlanta has been the most high-powered offense all season long and that's held true against right-handed pitchers. Since the All-Star break in that split, the Braves lead the league in wOBA (.369), ISO (.237), and wRC+ (132) and have struck out at just a 19.0% clip -- the third-lowest mark in baseball.

They should have a field day against the right-handed Williams and make Braves -1.5 one of my favorite bets of the slate.

Minnesota Twins at Colorado Rockies

Twins -1.5 (-128)

We close things out in Denver where I like the visiting Minnesota Twins to cover as 1.5-run favorites against the home Colorado Rockies.

This one boils down to the pitching matchup. With a slate-high 11.5-run total and windy conditions at Coors Field, the Twins need an ace if they want to cover with so many expected runs.

Luckily, they have just that as Joe Ryan takes the mound for his final start of the regular season.

Ryan has enjoyed a breakout season in 2023. Through 28 starts, the righty owns a stellar 3.44 SIERA to go along with his 29.4% strikeout rate and 5.1% walk rate. He sits in the top 25% of the league in both xERA (3.40) and xBA (.221) and has spun 14 quality starts. Although Joe has struggled a bit over the second half of the year, I'm confident he can shut down this Rockies lineup, even with the park factors going against him.

The Rockies have been one of the 10 worst lineups in baseball against righties over the second half of the year. Since the All-Star break, Colorado ranks 24th in wOBA (.304) and dead-last in wRC+ (74) against righties. What makes them such a compelling matchup for Joe Ryan specifically, however, is how much they strike out. Over the second half of the year, the Rockies have struck out at a 27.7% clip against righties -- tied for the highest rate in baseball.

Assuming Ryan can handle a rocky Colorado lineup, we just need the Minnesota offense to show up against Ty Blach.

That shouldn't be asking for too much given how up and down Blach has been. For the season, Blach sits in the bottom 1% of the league in both xERA (6.94) and xBA allowed (.326). He allows a staggering rate of barrels (10.6%) and hard hits (44.3%), and hardly ever generates ground balls (38.4%). On top of that, he hardly ever generates whiffs (15.0%) or strikes hitters out (14.0%).

I'm no rocket scientist, but I don't think that's the kind of profile that plays well at Coors Field.

Consequently, I'm expecting the Twins to put on a show at the dish. Minnesota can be prone to strikeouts (24.7% K rate) but they've absolutely shredded lefties over the second half of the year. Since the All-Star break, the Twins rank 6th in both wOBA (.348) and ISO (.203) while compiling the 4th-highest wRC+ (124) against left-handed pitchers.

Those strong splits, coupled with Ryan's strikeout numbers, make the Twins -1.5 a fitting conclusion to the regular season betting guide.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.