MLB Betting: 3 Best Player Prop Bets for Thursday 8/22/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing our MLB projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB player props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Best MLB Player Props Today

Nick Lodolo to Record 7+ Strikeouts (+150)

All eyes are understandably going to be on Paul Skenes when the Pittsburgh Pirates host the Cincinnati Reds, but this a perfect opportunity for Nick Lodolo to shine. Lodolo has been better than his 4.55 ERA indicates as he's registering a 3.82 SIERA, 3.95 xFIP, and 3.80 xERA through 20 starts for the Reds in 2024.

As a rookie in 2022, Lodolo burst onto the scene with a 29.7% strikeout rate and 12.3% swinging strike rate in 19 starts while following that up with a 28.3% strikeout rate and 13.0% swinging strike rate in 7 starts in 2023. Even though Lodolo has seen his strikeout rate (23.9%) and swinging strike rate (11.5%) decline this year, he's still got good enough numbers to take advantage of a Pirates team that has been striking out often versus southpaws recently.

Over the last 30 days, Pittsburgh has struck out at the third-highest rate (31.5%) against left-handed pitchers. In addition to that, the Pirates have the eighth-highest swinging strike rate (11.8%) and the highest CSW rate (28.9%) this season.

Lodolo ranks in the 73rd percentile in chase rate (30.5%) and 63rd percentile in whiff rate (26.9%), so he has the makeup to rack up Ks against a makeshift Pirates lineup. Taking a chance on Lodolo's alternate strikeouts is also aided by Pittsburgh's current projected lineup having five players with a 25.5% strikeout rate or higher versus left-handed pitching this year.

Cristopher Sanchez Under 17.5 Outs Recorded (+122)

On the surface, Cristopher Sanchez would appear to have a fantastic matchup against the Atlanta Braves, who have the highest strikeout rate (31.6%) against left-handed pitching in the last month. However, Sanchez resides in the 18th percentile in strikeout rate (18.6%) and 16th percentile in xBA (.270) through 24 starts for the Philadelphia Phillies.

Just to make matters worse for Sanchez, the Braves are logging the fifth-best wOBA (.343), eighth-best wRC+ (120), and second-best ISO (.213) over the last 30 days when facing lefties. Sanchez has given up six-plus earned runs in two of his last four starts, and his road splits are concerning entering an NL East matchup at Truist Park.

Despite coming off a complete game versus the Washington Nationals, Sanchez is sporting a 4.24 xFIP, 1.77 WHIP, and 12.6% strikeout rate in road contests, compared to a 2.63 xFIP, 0.93 WHIP, and 23.2% strikeout rate in front of the fans at Citizens Bank Park. If Sanchez was only required to pitch at home, he'd be considered a bonafide ace in the baseball world.

Across his 11 road starts this season, Sanchez has pitched six-plus innings in only 2 of those outings. With an inability to take advantage of a positive strikeout matchup and his problematic road numbers, Sanchez is going to have a tough time going six-plus innings against the Braves.

Jackson Merrill to Record 2+ Total Bases (-105)

Jackson Merrill recently took the shortest odds to win the National League Rookie of the Year (-175) mantle from Paul Skenes, who has held that title for the majority of the campaign. Merrill has been spectacular for the San Diego Padres, and he draws a favorable matchup versus Luis Severino on Thursday.

Ahead of his 25th start for the New York Mets, Severino is permitting a .317 wOBA, 1.25 WHIP, and 1.39 HR/9 when going up against left-handed batters. Meanwhile, Merrill is rocking a fantastic .377 wOBA, 148 wRC+, and .218 ISO versus right-handed pitchers in his debut season.

Among players with 50-plus plate appearances against righties in the last month, Merrill has the eighth-best wOBA (.467), sixth-best wRC+ (210), and third-best ISO (.417) in that split. Those notable numbers have helped Merrill record two-plus bases in five of his last six contests for the Padres.

To put the cherry on top, Merrill has a .325 wOBA or better and .188 ISO or better against all three of Severino's primary pitches (four-seam fastball, sweeper, and changeup) versus left-handed batters. Given Merrill's recent surge at the plate and Severino's meh numbers, all signs point toward the rookie outfielder tallying two-plus bases again on Thursday.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.