MLB Best Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks for Saturday 9/21/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to player props to home runs, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's game predictions and FanDuel Research's daily MLB projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Today's Best MLB Bets

Chicago White Sox at San Diego Padres

Padres -1.5 (-130)

It's a surprise any time I wake up to uncover the Chicago White Sox covered a run line, but I wouldn't be banking on a streak.

Chicago is working uphill tonight on both sides of the dish against the San Diego Padres. When San Diego toes the slab, Martin Perez has been one of their more reliable hurlers. He's recorded a 2.72 ERA and modest 4.26 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) in his time with the club, and the White Sox's poor offense has just a 74 wRC+ against lefties over the past 30 days.

On the other side of the mound, Chris Flexen will have to hold off "Slam Diego", who have torched righties for baseball's second-best team OPS (.815) over the past month of play. Flexen's 5.00 SIERA and 1.33 HR/9 allowed aren't particularly equipped to do so.

The full-game run line might also be decided by San Diego having a vastly superior reliever xFIP over the past month (3.55) than Chicago (4.22). I'm happy to lay the juice with this many advantages.

Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers

Rockies Over 3.5 Runs (+104)

I hinted at this matchup in yesterday's MLB DFS primer. I'm glad I get to write it up for a bet as Walker Buehler was pushed back to start on Saturday.

Expecting the Colorado Rockies offense to struggle tonight is borderline asinine. Buehler hasn't been himself all season, recording a 4.72 SIERA with a mediocre 18.0% strikeout rate. He's given up 23 earned runs in his last 31.3 completed innings. The Los Angeles Dodgers' bullpen is also not helpful to the under's cause, per its 4.70 xFIP over the past 30 days (second-worst in MLB).

In plus conditions, this Rockies offense has shown to be capable. They've posted a .704 OPS against righties in the past month. While aided by Coors Field, tonight's matchup at dinger-friendly Dodger Stadium isn't exactly October in Seattle.

numberFire projects the Rockies for 3.84 median runs tonight, endorsing plus money on this line.

Today's Best Home Run Prop Bets

Yordan Alvarez to Hit a Home Run (+285)

Could we have a "Yordong" on Saturday's menu?

Yordan Alvarez is primed to face a struggling lefty tonight, and that's been wonderful news for him. In same-handed matchups over the past 30 days, Alvarez has pummeled southpaws for 1.057 OPS, .382 ISO, 53.6% flyball rate, and 53.6% hard-hit rate. He's whacked 4 homers in his last 37 plate appearances (PAs) against lefties.

Reid Detmers of the Los Angeles Angels hasn't exactly channeled his talent well lately, either. Detmers has given 11 earned in 17.1 innings since returning, ceding 1.57 HR/9 total this season. His elevated flyball (42.2%) and barrel (10.0%) rates allowed make it no mystery as to why.

FanDuel Research's daily MLB projections expect 0.33 home runs from the Houston Astros' designated hitters on Saturday. If correct, that would merit closer to +256 odds for a bomb.

Giancarlo Stanton to Hit a Home Run (+285)

Wondering what these odds might be at Yankee Stadium, I'll take the plunge on Giancarlo Stanton tonight despite a suboptimal venue in Oakland.

That's because of Oakland Athletics starter JP Sears. Sears' 4.59 SIERA has come with elevated flyball (46.6%) and barrel (9.8%) rates just like Detmers', and he's been fortunate to only surrender 1.27 HR/9 this season. His 10.0% homer-to-flyball ratio is well below the league average (12.1%).

The artist formerly known as "Mike" has tattooed lefties like Sears for a .167 ISO, 38.9% flyball rate, and 55.6% hard-hit rate even if his OPS (.685) hasn't been stellar. We know the boom-or-bust proposition from Stanton at this stage.

You'll get deja vu from Stanton's FDR projections today. He's projected for exactly as many homers (0.33) at the exact same odds as Alvarez. Heck, we'll take both values with that the case.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.